Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb enters the 2022 season as the clear WR1 and is poised to elevate his game to the next level. What is Lamb’s current ADP, and should fantasy football managers select him at that price in fantasy drafts?
CeeDee Lamb ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
While not always possible, we aim to select players at or near their floor in fantasy. Lamb’s ADP is around 17th overall as the WR7. For someone who has never even finished inside the top 12, I can’t really say Lamb is going anywhere near his floor.
To justify drafting Lamb at his ADP, we have to buy not just the likelihood of the breakout but the degree. Lamb ascending to the ranks of the elite WR1s is already baked into his price.
Of course, there’s good reason for this. The three pillars to fantasy football success are situation, opportunity, and talent. Lamb’s situation has always been great on an elite Cowboys offense. The talent was never in question. In 2022, it appears the opportunity will finally be there as well.
CeeDee Lamb’s projected fantasy value in 2022
When the Cowboys drafted Lamb in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft, they already had Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup. Lamb was a luxury, not a necessity. The team wasn’t making this pick unless they fully believed in Lamb becoming their next great wide receiver who wears No. 88.
Lamb is now entering his third NFL season. In the modern NFL, most wide receivers break out in their second year. But third-year breakouts are still a thing.
Lamb averaged 13.6 PPR fantasy points per game in 2020 and 14.6 in 2021. His production didn’t skyrocket, but it steadily improved. Now in 2022, it’s time for the leap.
Impact of the Cowboys’ depth chart on Lamb’s fantasy value
A typical WR1 target share is at least 25%. Lamb’s target share still has room to grow after it was just 20.4% last season. With Cooper in Cleveland, Gallup still recovering from his torn ACL, and James Washington out for the first couple of weeks due to a broken foot, Lamb could see a Davante Adams-level target share this season. That’s over 30%.
It’s time for the Cowboys to unleash Lamb and treat him like a true WR1. Dak Prescott is going to look for him early and often. Last year, Lamb had six games with five targets or fewer. If that number is as high as two this season, I’d be surprised.
While Lamb is clearly a talented player, the Cowboys haven’t utilized his full abilities yet. His 2.27 yards per route run was 12th in the league, but he only had a 9.4 average depth of target. The Cowboys need to use Lamb more downfield.
It’s not like the Cowboys are a team scared to push the ball downfield. Prescott averaged 4.8 deep attempts per game — more than Patrick Mahomes. Dalton Schultz is the perfect safety blanket for when Prescott needs something short. Let Lamb run some deeper routes.
Lamb’s breakout is probably inevitable, but you’re paying for it up front
The fantasy community has accepted the inevitability of Lamb’s breakout. However, that doesn’t mean it’s actually inevitable. There’s a chance the Lamb we’ve seen over his first two seasons is as good as it gets. That’s not my opinion, nor do I think it’s likely. But we must, at the very least, acknowledge it’s a possibility.
When drafting Lamb, you’re paying for a mid WR1 who has never put up WR1 numbers. Given that Lamb is our consensus WR7, we’re willing to pay the price. Lamb is on the offense that led the NFL in touchdowns last season. He’s playing with a top-10 quarterback and has decreased target competition. My money is on a true breakout campaign for Lamb in 2022.