After a tough final couple of years in Cincinnati, wide receiver A.J. Green returned to fantasy football relevance last season with the Arizona Cardinals. Now, as he enters his second year in Arizona, is Green a potential fantasy value at his current ADP in fantasy football drafts, or are there better options to select at a similar price?
A.J. Green ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Green’s current ADP in redraft fantasy football leagues is outside of the top 250 overall in all formats. His ADP is at least a couple of rounds higher in PPR formats than it is in half or non-PPR. In all three formats, he’s being selected in the region of the 75th to 100th wide receiver off the board.
To put that into context, in a 12-team league, the end of the 20th round is the 240th selection. Therefore, Green is largely going undrafted. At his current price, Green is essentially a free investment for fantasy managers in 10 or 12-team leagues.
A.J. Green’s projected fantasy value in 2022
When evaluating any Cardinals’ skill-position player this year, there are two different phases to consider — the first six weeks when DeAndre Hopkins is suspended, and then the final 11 games when he should be back on the field in a regular capacity.
In 2021, we got somewhat of an indication of how that might look, as Hopkins missed six games through injury. Interestingly, during those six games, Green had a lower fantasy output than when Hopkins was on the field.
With Hopkins on the field, Green averaged around 7.5 fantasy points per game in non-PPR and just over 11 ppg in PPR. Without Hopkins, those numbers dropped to just over 4.5 and just under eight points per game in non-PPR and PPR, respectively.
Those decreases in output came despite Green seeing close to an extra target per game in Hopkins’ absence. Normally, when a star player misses time, we expect to see an increase in output for those around him. However, we also see opposing teams scheming around a different receiver. So rather than Green being the second or third receiver that the Cardinals’ opponent game planned around, he became the first or second.
Whether we see a repeat of that depends on how teams view Marquise Brown. If they see Brown as a clear upgrade over Christian Kirk, then Green would likely become the third receiver teams scheme around when Hopkins is active and second when he’s not.
That is why Green’s 2022 fantasy value is so hard to decipher. Will we see the Green who scored 10+ fantasy points per game in four of the first six weeks last season? Or will we see the version that scored five or fewer fantasy points in five of the final nine weeks?
Did the arrival of Zach Ertz hurt Green’s fantasy value?
The drop in Green’s fantasy ppg in his final 10 games of the season relative to the first six coincided with the arrival of Zach Ertz. When you look at the raw numbers of targets and receptions, Green’s opportunities remained the same following Ertz’s arrival. However, his fantasy point production dropped by around three fantasy points per game.
The reason for that can largely be tied to touchdowns. Green scored three touchdowns in the first six games but failed to find the end zone after that. Looking at the breakdown of Green’s red-zone targets, he saw a total of 14 during the season, leading to four receptions and two touchdowns.
Eight of those targets and both touchdowns came in the first six weeks when Ertz was still in Philadelphia. But once Ertz arrived, Green had just six further red-zone targets in his next 10 games. He went from averaging 1.33 red-zone targets per game to 0.8. While that was not the entire reason for Green’s downturn in fantasy production, it is part of the story.
Ertz is back in Arizona on a new contract in 2022. Therefore, even with Hopkins suspended, the Cardinals’ depth chart looks very similar. When Hopkins is active, Green is likely the fourth weapon behind Hopkins, Brown, and Ertz. With Hopkins out, he likely becomes the third pass catcher in the offense.
Should you draft Green in 2022?
Green is currently ranked outside the top 75 WRs in our 2022 fantasy WR rankings. His overall ranking of around 200 is slightly higher than his current ADP in all formats. Therefore, that would suggest we see Green as a slight bargain at his current ADP.
The problem when it comes to drafting Green is that his upside appears to be capped. Ertz and Hopkins were the two most targeted pass catchers in the red zone on a per-game basis last year. That appears unlikely to change this year.
Additionally, Brown saw 17 targets in the red zone last season with Baltimore, compared to just eight for Kirk in Arizona. If Brown also steals red-zone targets, it decreases Green’s probability of finding those fantasy-point-boosting touchdowns.
Whether you view Green as a good player to invest in this season depends on your league size. In 10 or 12-team formats, there are receivers with similar ADPs that have far greater upside — Alec Pierce, Romeo Doubs, K.J. Osborn, Devin Duvernay. Those players are more intriguing as late-round dart throws than Green is.
However, when you look at deeper leagues, you might be looking for someone that can be a “safer” option as a potential Flex. In a 20-team league, for example, Green would be drafted in the 10th or 11th round when looking for fringe starters. In those deeper formats, he does present a little more safety based on his expected usage than those other names around him.