The 2022 fantasy football season is truly underway as drafts fire off across the nation, meaning now is the time to dive into Philadelphia Eagles WR A.J. Brown’s ADP to determine whether or not fantasy managers are receiving a value on draft day. Following a surprising draft night trade, what is Brown’s ADP, and how high should managers select him in fantasy drafts?
A.J. Brown ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
As we draw closer to the prime draft season for fantasy football, Brown currently has an ADP of 31, coming off the board as the WR11. For comparison, DeVonta Smith (WR36) is going around 60 picks later than Brown (ADP 91).
In PFN’s 2022 PPR fantasy football rankings, Brown is currently the WR17 and 41st overall player, showing a slightly more conservative outlook. I have Brown as my WR11 and 28th overall player.
I completely understand why some would be down on Brown. Changing teams tends to take some time to find the rhythm. There is also the concern of the Eagles running all the time. I’m on the other side of this debate. You don’t go out and trade from Brown while giving him a cool $100 million not to make him the focus of the offense.
We’ve seen what Brown can do in a run-first offense. He was the WR21 as a rookie, 14th in 2020 (seventh in points per game), and even in an injury-plagued 2021, Brown was 17th in PPR (minimum 50 receptions). He’s done all of this while never seeing over 106 targets. In 2022, he could push for 120, if not more. Brown’s talent is as exceptional as his opportunity for success in fantasy.
A.J. Brown’s projected fantasy value in 2022
In his three years with the Titans, Brown hauled in 185 catches for 2,995 yards and 26 touchdowns, crossing the 1,000-yard mark each of his first two seasons. The Eagles haven’t had a wide receiver eclipse 1,000 receiving yards in a season since 2014 (Jeremy Maclin).
Part of whether or not you should be in on Brown is your belief in Jalen Hurts as a QB. Personally, I am all-in on Hurts being a starting QB in the NFL. I feel all the traits are there. He has been a winner at every level of football. He just needed some time and patience to show it.
There is the concern Brown will see his value diminish in 2022 as the Eagles are a run-heavy offense. In fact, from Week 8 and on, they were No. 1 in the NFL in rushing percentage at 59%. Over this same stretch, Tennessee was an even 50/50 split.
Last season, before the Eagles switched due to personnel, they were very pass-happy, throwing on 61% of their plays in neutral game scripts through Week 6. Hurts was on pace for a silly 589 attempts. This more pass-forward approach is what I expect from the Eagles in 2022. Nick Sirianni did what a good coach should do: change the game plan to fit the personnel. He didn’t have the receivers to throw the ball at a high rate.
He does now, and that is why they traded for Brown in the first place. The Eagles didn’t give Brown a massive contract not to make him the focal point of their offense. I’m not discounting Brown for fantasy in 2022. He is a high-end WR2 who will have weeks inside the top five for the position and should see a 25% or more target share. If he slides in drafts, he won’t make it past me.