Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Adam Thielen seems to have been written off by the majority of fantasy gamers after an injury-shortened 2021 campaign. What is Thielen’s current ADP, and should fantasy football managers draft him at that price?
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Adam Thielen ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Thielen’s ADP is around 70th overall as the WR24. It appears the fantasy community finally figured out how valuable Thielen is this season. Yeah, he’s 32 years old. Yeah, he’s been injured more the past two seasons than at any point prior in his career. But the man produces when on the field.
I just can’t figure out how Thielen isn’t at least a WR2 when on the field. He’s old, but he was a 24-year-old rookie UDFA who didn’t break out until age 26. Thielen has far fewer miles on him than a typical 32-year-old. The end is certainly near, but it’s not here yet.
At his current ADP, I’m all over Thielen. I’m not necessarily reaching for him because I don’t think he has WR1 upside, but this is a pure play on value. As long as Thielen continues to be drafted at or below his floor, I’m in.
Adam Thielen’s projected fantasy value in 2022
We’ve seen Thielen’s best season. That’s not really up for debate. His 19.1 PPR fantasy points per game in 2018 is simply not happening again. Justin Jefferson is too good and will command too high of a target share. Also, while Thielen still has plenty left in the tank, he’s not 28 years old anymore.
In 2020, Thielen was elevated to the Vikings’ WR1 role following their trade of Stefon Diggs to the Bills. Thielen saw a 25.2% target share with Jefferson as his WR2. In 2021, Jefferson became the WR1 and Thielen’s target share dipped to 21%.
What makes guys like Thielen so valuable is their ability to adapt. Thielen turned himself into this elite red-zone target. Through 2019, Thielen had never scored more than nine touchdowns in a season. He scored 14 of them in 2020 and 10 in 2021 (in only 13 games!).
The one negative I will say about Thielen is his ADP coincides with a lot of the sophomore wide receivers. In general, betting on ascending receivers 22-24 years old is a better bet than a veteran 30+ years of age. If that’s your logic in fading Thielen — that you’d just rather draft a younger, ascending player — I cannot fault you for that. But if Thielen is still there after you’ve taken someone like Amon-Ra St. Brown or Rashod Bateman, don’t hesitate to push the button.
Impact of the Vikings’ depth chart on Thielen’s fantasy value
Outside of a head coaching change, not much is different for Minnesota’s offense. Kevin O’Connell replacing Mike Zimmer is a boon for the offense as a whole. O’Connell learned under Sean McVay and should install similar creative passing concepts with an emphasis on early-down passing.
As for the offensive personnel, Jefferson is the WR1, Thielen is WR2, K.J. Osborn is WR3, and Kirk Cousins is the quarterback. Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison will man the backfield. This is the exact same group of players the Vikings featured last season. While there isn’t continuity at head coach, there is a ton of it on the field.
Thielen probably won’t play 17 games, but does it matter?
Thielen’s 2021 season seems to be viewed somewhat unfavorably by the fantasy community. Not in the sense that he was bad, but that he’s old and can’t stay healthy.
Thielen averaged 15.4 ppg in the 13 games he played last season. Those are high-WR2 numbers.
In addition to injury, fantasy managers are logically concerned with Thielen’s 10% touchdown rate. It seems unsustainable, but Thielen’s been sustaining it for two seasons. In his older age, this may just be who he is.
It’s possible the new coaching staff goes away from Thielen in the end zone, but it may just be a Cousins thing. By all accounts, Cousins likes looking for Thielen in the end zone. Thielen saw 20 red-zone targets in 2020 and 15 in his 13 games in 2021. Even if Thielen sees another tick down in volume and scores at an 8% clip, we’re still looking at a player capable of putting up mid-WR2 numbers.