The 2022 fantasy football season is truly underway, and drafts are firing off across the nation, meaning now is the time to dive into Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones’ ADP to determine whether or not fantasy managers are receiving value on draft day. Will Jones maintain his spot as the Packers’ RB1, and where should he be drafted in upcoming fantasy football drafts?
If you’re looking for an additional edge in your fantasy drafts, be sure to check out the Fantasy Football Draft Kit, part of the PFN Pass!
Aaron Jones ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
As we continue through prime draft season in fantasy football, Green Bay Packers RB Aaron Jones currently has an ADP of 19, coming off the board as the RB11. For comparison, A.J. Dillon (RB26) is going around 39 picks later than Jones (ADP 68).
In PFN’s 2022 Fantasy Football Redraft Rankings, Jones is currently the RB12 with an ADP of 21. While those are consensus rankings, I similarly have Jones as my RB12 and 20th overall ranked player, with Dillon the RB20 and 46th overall. However, be sure to check back, as rankings may fluctuate between now and the start of the season.
While Dillon did see more carries last year, Jones was the RB1 and maintained his lead role until he suffered a knee injury in Week 10 that cost him roughly two games. Jones should once again be the lead back, albeit in what is most certainly a 1a/1b situation, with Jones finding the bulk of his upside via the passing game and his ability to rattle off explosive plays.
Expect Jones to be a standout running back again in 2022 if history proves accurate, as he has been all over the field when star wideout Davante Adams (who’s now in Las Vegas) was unavailable. Since 2017, Jones has averaged nearly 23 PPR/game without Adams on the field versus only 14.9 with Adams healthy. In PPR formats, where targets are nearly 3x as valuable as a carry, Jones should be an elite option once again, even with Dillon finding success of his own.
Aaron Jones’ projected fantasy value in 2022
At the time of his injury, Jones was dominating the backfield split, playing on twice the number of snaps as Dillon (460 vs. 230), and was receiving over 60% of the team’s carries. At that time, Jones was the RB8 in PPR formats, and Dillon was 42nd. But from Weeks 12 through 17, it was Dillon (RB17 through that stretch) who edged out the lead in carries compared to Jones (RB16). Where Dillon dominated the carries 65 to 48, Jones was more efficient (5.4 ypc to 4.1) and led Dillon in targets 18 to 12.
This pattern is what many of us expect to carry over into 2022. Dillon has shown to be a high-caliber rusher. Last season alone, he was the RB23 in PPR scoring while averaging 10.9 PPR/game. Recording 224 total opportunities, he was just 2.4 touches/game behind Jones (15.7) and led the team in rushing (187 carries for 803 yards). Jones, on the other hand, had a 67% RB target share.
That could and should increase this season. Since 2019, in the seven games Jones has played without Adams on the field, he’s seen his targets jump from 3.9 per game to 6.7. His receiving yardage also increased from 21.6 to 55.4 per game. That’s 12.2 PPR points per game without adding a single carry or touchdown into the mix. It would have been good enough to be the RB24 in per-game scoring, tying Melvin Gordon III and Rashaad Penny.
While Jones might not have top-five upside anymore due to the presence of Dillon, placing in the top 10 is undoubtedly in his range of outcomes. At their current ADPs, both Jones and Dillon should be on your fantasy radar. While I am near ADP with Jones, Dillon is my RB20, suggesting he is an even better value at his ADP.