Michael Thomas’ offseason has been filled with as many twists and turns as the 1995 Academy Award-winning film The Usual Suspects. It’s a less than ideal situation for fantasy football managers, which begs the question — should you draft Thomas in fantasy this year?
Update 8/31: Thomas will be placed on the PUP list, meaning he will miss at least the first five games of the 2021 NFL season.
Tumultuous 2020 season
Thomas suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 1 that subsequently derailed his entire 2020 campaign. The injury included a torn deltoid and other ligament damage. Thomas decided to play through the injury in an attempt to win a Super Bowl in Drew Brees’ final season.
However, the veteran receiver was only active in six games last year. Furthermore, as a reminder, Thomas got into a fight with teammate Chauncey Gardner-Johnson during practice, leading to a one-game suspension and a fine.
In the end, Thomas only averaged 8 targets, 5.7 receptions, 62.6 receiving yards, and 12 PPR fantasy points per game in 2020. This was a far cry from his statistical production in 2018 to 2019 when he averaged 10.4 targets, 8.6 receptions, 98 receiving yards, and 22 PPR fantasy points per game. Thomas finished as a WR2+ in 75% of his games during that span.
Unfortunately, Thomas’ 2020 season ended with him being placed on injured reserve as his teammates in New Orleans prepared for the playoffs. He looked like a shadow of himself, but many were optimistic that Thomas could return to form in 2021. This optimism quickly changed to pessimism as we learned more about the situation.
The schism between Michael Thomas and the Saints
Thomas has multiple hurdles to overcome heading into 2021. The irony is that he created all of them. Many of the issues recently came to light once Thomas was the subject of trade rumors.
The Saints receiver will miss time because he decided to rehabilitate his ankle after receiving a second opinion instead of getting surgery. A rift with the team influenced Thomas’ decision. Pro Football Network’s NFL Insider Adam Beasley went into more detail about the situation in a recent Michael Thomas injury update.
Thomas hinted at a dispute with the Saints’ organization with a cryptic tweet. He also liked other tweets on Twitter that imply he was unhappy with the team’s medical staff. Is Thomas compatible with quarterbacks Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill? This is a question that many fantasy managers are asking since he played his entire career up to this point with Brees.
Can Michael Thomas prosper in The Big Easy with another QB?
I believe Thomas can prosper. The perception is that Brees was entirely responsible for the success the Saints had offensively. But head coach Sean Payton was the architect of News Orleans’ quarterback-friendly offense. Brees was able to execute it to perfection.
Since 2006, QBs in Payton’s scheme have averaged 38 pass attempts and 297 passing yards per game. This trend should continue in 2021, especially with Winston under center. In addition to divisional matchups, the Saints face the AFC East and NFC East. New Orleans will need to score as many points as possible against these opponents.
It is even possible that Thomas sheds the moniker of only being a “slant receiver” with a QB change. Brees’ arm strength waned toward the end of his career. Now, you may be wondering how long Thomas will be out recovering from surgery.
The Saints have not issued a timeline for Thomas’ return
Thomas had ankle surgery back in June. It was reported that he’d face a four-month recovery timeline.
Luke Johnson of NOLA.com mentioned that Thomas is ahead of schedule on his rehab. However, Saints beat reporter Nick Underhill created a proposed timeline. According to that timeline, a “worst-case scenario” for Thomas would be a return in late October, while a “best-case scenario” would be in late September.
It would behoove Thomas to take the proper time necessary to recovery. He could reaggravate the ankle injury if he returns too soon. Given the information we know, here is how I’d approach Thomas in fantasy.
Should you draft Michael Thomas in 2021?
The short answer is yes. The risk-reward spectrum is the relationship between the amount of return gained and the amount of risk undertaken in an investment. Thomas is the epitome of that concept in fantasy football.
It is difficult to completely fade Thomas given his statistical body of work, and his ADP reflects that.
Thomas’ current ADP
According to Fleaflicker, Thomas is the WR27 with an ADP of 68. In pay-to-play formats such as the National Fantasy Championship, Thomas is the WR22 with an ADP of 52.58.
The importance of a contingency plan
If you decide to draft Thomas, it is critical to have a contingency plan. Marquez Callaway and Tre’Quan Smith will fill the void until Thomas returns and are excellent options to draft alongside him.
An alternative is prioritizing other receivers projected to have a sizeable target share in the early double-digit rounds. DeVante Parker is one that immediately comes to mind.
Thomas has the potential to be a league-winner this season if you build a strong enough foundation to weather the storm until he returns.