After a quick stint with the Arizona Cardinals, running back Kenyan Drake traded in the red and white for the silver and black as he signed with the Las Vegas Raiders in the offseason. While a great NFL move, this has left fantasy football managers scratching their heads as to whether or not to draft Drake in 2021. Now, he shares a backfield with a true workhorse RB and might struggle for touches.
After a sensational 2019, Kenyan Drake fizzled out in 2020
A third-round pick of the Miami Dolphins in 2016, Drake escaped the after-effects of Adam Gase halfway through the 2019 season.
In his eight games with the Cardinals that season, Drake averaged 5.2 yards per carry on 123 attempts, totaling 643 yards and 8 rushing touchdowns. He was also a vital member of the receiving game, hauling in 28 of 35 targets for 171 yards. Included in this stretch was a two-game period (Weeks 12 and 13) where Drake had 303 yards and 6 touchdowns on 46 carries and was the RB1 and RB2, scoring 39.6 and 33.4 points, respectively.
Drake appeared to be the perfect running back for the Kliff Kingsbury offense. I was extremely high on him believing this momentum would carry over into 2020. While I would not call it “flourishing,” Drake honestly had a solid season, just not to the extent some hoped.
Playing in 15 games, Drake had a career season as a rusher, setting personal records in attempts (239), yards (955), and touchdowns (10). What hurt from a fantasy aspect was that he also set a four-year low as a receiver, recording just 25 receptions on 31 targets for 137 yards.
Drake’s volume hid what was a highly inefficient season
Luckily enough, Drake’s ability to find the end zone salvaged his season, finishing as the RB16 in PPR scoring. However, he was 40th in points per game (12.8) despite being one of just 15 RBs to average over 18 opportunities per game. Making matters worse, Drake was 80th in fantasy points per opportunity (0.71).
In contrast, teammate Chase Edmonds was eighth amongst RBs in fantasy points/opp at 1.02 (minimum 60 opportunities). Although he was out-touched by Drake (264 to 150), Edmonds trailed by just 1.5 points per game. The reason for this was all of that receiving work that Drake saw the season prior went to Edmonds. He more than doubled Drake’s target total (31), receiving 67.
In fantasy, especially PPR scoring, targets are king. Without usage in the passing game, you essentially need to be Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, or score double-digit touchdowns to sniff the top 12. They were the only RBs to see fewer targets than Drake but end the season as top-20 fantasy backs.
Once the RB1, Kenyan Drake is firmly the RB2 on the Raiders
Every year, it gets harder and harder to find running backs locked into 65% or more of the backfield opportunities. One of the few remaining was Josh Jacobs. Since entering the NFL, Jacobs saw 269 opportunities as a rookie and 318 in 2020, which was 73% of the RB carries and 42% of the targets. He is an old-school, downhill runner with an old-school coach in Jon Gruden. Gruden wanted to establish the run behind an outstanding offensive line.
Yeah, about all of that.
As a free agent, Drake signed with the Raiders in the offseason on a two-year deal worth up to $14.5 million, with $11 million guaranteed. Not only did his fantasy value drop, but he took Jacobs down with him. From an NFL side of things, this was a great move. I won’t fault a team for adding talent. But that doesn’t mean I won’t lament the repercussions it has in the fantasy realm.
Also, remember that OL being their strength thing I said earlier? You can throw that out the window because they blew that whole group up. They traded away C Rodney Hudson to the Cardinals, OT Trent Brown to the Patriots, and G Gabe Jackson to the Seahawks.
Now, Las Vegas heads into the season with Kolton Miller, Richie Incognito, Andre James, Denzelle Good, and Alex Leatherwood as their projected starting five. Leatherwood was one of the more surprising draft picks, seen as a reach by virtually every draft analyst at No. 17 overall.
This is a bottom-10 unit in the NFL on a team likely to struggle in 2021. Not exactly the most comforting thing when you are trying to find an upside pick in fantasy football.
Should you draft Kenyan Drake in fantasy football this year?
For someone who is only considered a passing down back now, Drake’s RB34 (98.9 ADP) on Sleeper and RB38 (109 ADP) on FleaFlicker is too rich for me. Sure, he would have RB2 upside if anything happened to Jacobs. But in the ninth round, I am not drafting a handcuff.
In that same range of players are Ryan Tannehill, Jalen Hurts, Matthew Stafford, Damien Harris, Zack Moss, Laviska Shenault, Antonio Brown, Will Fuller, Michael Pittman, Mike Williams, Corey Davis, Robert Tonyan, Logan Thomas, and Tyler Higbee.
In my drafts and based on my projections, I am out on Drake. I’d consider Jacobs at the right value should he fall a bit in drafts.