Once one of the best running backs in the NFL and even a former No. 1 selection in fantasy football drafts, managers are now wondering if they should even spend a pick at all on Houston Texans RB David Johnson. Given the turmoil hanging over the franchise as the regular season approaches, along with an increase in backfield talent around him, should fantasy managers draft Johnson this year?
David Johnson was actually better than some realized last season
No matter what he does, David Johnson will always be known as the guy the Houston Texans received for DeAndre Hopkins when they made a blockbuster trade in 2020 that, to this day, still completely baffles me.
It’s not like they were trading for the version of Johnson that was coming off an RB1 finish (2016) and then was the consensus No. 1 pick in fantasy football the following year. They were trading for the player who looked like he was moving to the hole slower than those people you see power walking in the mall.
But if we are honest, Johnson played better than we were giving him credit for last season. He was the RB19 with a 13.6 ppg average. Furthermore, he was an RB2 or better in nine of 12 games.
Playing in 12 games, Johnson recorded 691 rushing yards on 147 carries for 6 touchdowns while adding 33 receptions on 46 targets for 314 receiving yards with 2 more TDs. Those are solid numbers, and Johnson returned value on his RB17 draft capital.
He was also the workhorse of the Texans’ backfield, playing on 74% of the snaps while seeing 77% of the rushing attempts and 65% of the targets among RBs. You didn’t necessarily get anything extra out of him for what you spent on draft day, but when on the field, he was solid in your fantasy lineup.
Well, I hate to break it to you. But if you are expecting this in 2021, you are probably going to be disappointed.
The Texans and their backfield are as convoluted as it gets for fantasy
Where do I even begin to go over the Texans right now? Let’s just start with the obvious and work from there.
For one, the Texans are going to be awful. I know we don’t agree on much in fantasy, but I feel this should be something we can all get behind. If they don’t have a top-two pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, then I would be floored.
Then there is Deshaun Watson. While I will not go into the off-the-field situation, it is clear he will not play for the Texans this year or ever again, whether that is by trade, suspension, or the team just not playing him. Whatever the reason, he is not lacing them up for Houston.
Watson is a top-three QB talent in the NFL. When you take out a dynamic player and replace him with Tyrod Taylor, your offense takes a significant drop in production. I would not be surprised to see them make a run at newly-released QB Cam Newton, but we can cross that bridge when/if that happens.
The backfield is a mess
Then we get to the backfield, and what a mess this is. If there was a running back who hit free agency, Texans GM Nick Caserio was gobbling them up like a game of Hungry, Hungry Hippos. The Texans signed Mark Ingram, Phillip Lindsay, Rex Burkhead, and re-signed Buddy Howell.
Head coach David Culley comes from Baltimore and has stated this will be a running back by committee approach. When you add in the preseason and how the RBs were used, Johnson wasn’t even the RB1. In fact, Lindsay saw a considerable amount more of the first-down reps. Johnson, meanwhile, played on third downs in his limited usage.
In their three preseason games, Ingram had 19 opportunities (18 carries & 1 target), Lindsay had 16 (15 carries & 1 target), Burkhead saw 6 (3 carries & 3 targets), and Johnson received 7 (5 carries & 2 targets). Yet, the only RB that looked good this preseason was Scottie Phillips, earning 25 carries for 155 yards and 1 touchdown while adding 4 receptions on 5 targets for 23 yards.
So not only are the touches all over the place, the player who looked competent wasn’t even one of the guys we were thinking about.
Should you draft David Johnson in fantasy football this year?
At this point, I feel like you already know where I am going with this one. I am entirely out — not only on Johnson but the entire backfield. Honestly, anyone not named Brandin Cooks won’t find their way on my roster on draft day.
The Texans will not be a competitive team, resulting in a negative game script virtually every game. This also means they will need to go away from the rushing attack. It’s not like they have much to lose anyway. In 2020, the Texans were 31st in attempts (344), rushing yards (1,466), and 30th in TDs (10). That’s with Watson rushing 90 times for 444 yards and 3 touchdowns of his own.
Even if Johnson is the passing-down back, what are we expecting? 40-50 targets? That’s probably the best-case scenario too. Ingram will be the goal-line back, and Lindsay is only a year removed from back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons.
Johnson is currently the RB37 on Sleeper (106.2 ADP) and the RB41 (119 ADP) on FleaFlicker. In that same range of players are Jalen Hurts, Matthew Stafford, Damien Harris, Zack Moss, AJ Dillon, James Conner, Laviska Shenault, Antonio Brown, Will Fuller, Michael Pittman, Mike Williams, Corey Davis, Robert Tonyan, Logan Thomas, and Tyler Higbee. That’s 15 players to choose from, not named Johnson. Draft one of them or start stocking up on Excedrin. It’s your choice.