Man, what a brutal fantasy football season this has been. Injuries and COVID designations have wreaked havoc on fantasy managers each and every week. One of the latest is the season-ending injury to Jaguars RB James Robinson. Fantasy managers are now asking whether Dare Ogunbowale or Ryquell Armstead is worth adding off of waivers. Before we answer that, let’s try to paint the bigger picture.
Should you add Dare Ogunbowale or Ryquell Armstead on the waiver wire in Week 17?
What happened to Robinson is terrible and very unfair. But in the game of fantasy football, we have to look ahead and try to find out what to do in the aftermath. Let’s look at the top two options available now that Robinson’s season has ended.
The Jaguars told us what they think of their RB room at last year’s draft
Before we get too deep, a lot of what we have to look ahead with is partial information. A lot of what we think will happen in Week 17 is speculation based on practice reports, as well as looking back at 2021 stats. It’s an imperfect science, obviously, but I’ll walk you through how I parse the data that we do have and work out what I would do.
Travis Etienne was supposedly the starter heading into the year. Unfortunately, his preseason Achilles injury put a stop to that. This left Robinson as the best and only real option for the Jaguars heading into the season. For the most part, he did well, but the fact that the team drafted Etienne at all was a cause for concern. They didn’t think Robinson was the solution. At the very least, they felt like they could do better.
Looking back on Robinson’s season
By and large, Robinson did better than expected. Through 16 weeks, Robinson is currently RB19 in PPR scoring with 173.9 points. This includes his 1-point performance in Week 16, his 0.4-point performance in Week 14, and his 0-point performance in Week 9. He missed that game due to another injury, which limited his Week 8 output as well. In terms of points per game, he’s RB24 — definitely start-worthy in most formats. So, he was getting the job done for fantasy on the whole.
Carlos Hyde is second on the team in carries and yards this season. Hyde missed Week 15 due to a concussion he suffered in Week 14. Prior to last week’s game, the team placed him on IR, effectively ending his season as well. This means we get to turn our sights to what could be considered the fourth and fifth running back options on the depth chart (if you count Etienne).
With Robinson out, can Ogunbowale or Armstead make noise this week?
With both Robinson and Hyde being ruled out, this opens up a large hole in the Jaguars’ running game that someone’s going to have to fill. It’s not exciting, but that someone could help carry your fantasy team to a title. Is it worth the risk?
Ogunbowale is the next man up
Ogunbowale is the next man up and could be in line for a lion’s share of the carries if he’s given the job outright. On the season, Ogunbowale has 23 carries for 71 yards and a touchdown. He’s also caught 8 of 13 targets for another 57 receiving yards. These numbers don’t say much, but one stat speaks volumes to me.
The number that matters most on his stat sheet is that he’s played in all 15 games this year. The vast majority of his snaps have come on special teams, sure, but he’s been there every week nonetheless. When called upon to spell a running back, Ogunbowale was available. To me, that matters more than the stats he put up as the backup. This late in the season, the best ability is availability, and Ogunbowale has that in spades.
Even if he’s given the full amount of starter carries, I wouldn’t expect a high ceiling on his potential fantasy production. However, this opportunity gives him a solid floor.
The Jaguars face a mediocre New England Patriots rush defense in Week 17. There’s a chance Ogunbowale can do something with the carries he does get. In a week where you may need to fill a void in your roster due to injuries and COVID designations, you could do a lot worse. He’s likely on your waivers and is easily worth adding to see how things trend throughout the week.
Armstead is only worth adding in deeper leagues
The Jaguars signed Armstead last week to add depth to their RB room. The name might sound familiar because he played for the Jaguars in 2019. He missed the entire 2020 season due to his battle with COVID-19. Armstead was hospitalized and diagnosed with myocarditis due to the virus, something he’s been battling off the field for over a year.
Since coming back to the NFL, Armstead has bounced around on various practice squads. He’s been making strides to find footing somewhere. This week, the Jaguars signed Armstead to the 53-man roster, which marked a major step in his return to the game. He’s almost certainly going to suit up this week, but it’s hard to imagine him getting meaningful touches unless something happens to Ogunbowale.
Armstead is not worth adding in “normal” fantasy football leagues. In deeper dynasty leagues, he’s worth an add just in case he comes back strong and pads his résumé for next season.
I’m not putting Armstead anywhere near my starting lineup, though. There’s literally no floor to his potential this week. He could very easily see zero touches. You can’t have that in your lineup in the most important week of the year.