Over the years, San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan has proven he can make just about any quarterback work. After experiencing major success with Brock Purdy last season, should the 49ers stick with the safety he provides? Or should they go back to Trey Lance and chase his high ceiling?
Brock Purdy Is Safe
When the 49ers selected Purdy with the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, there’s no way they thought he’d actually have to play as a rookie. Day 2 quarterbacks already have an incredibly low hit rate. For Day 3 quarterbacks, it’s a true shot in the dark. Purdy not only went in the last round, but he was the last pick in the last round, becoming 2022’s Mr. Irrelevant.
After losing both Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo, Purdy was thrust into action. Immediately, he was surprisingly competent. But we’ve seen backups and third-stringers play well in relief of a starter, only to completely faceplant once opposing teams had a full week to prepare for them. To be perfectly candid, that’s what I expected from Purdy last year. Instead, it was quite the contrary.
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Purdy made five starts, but we’ll count his games as six, given how early he replaced Garoppolo in Week 13 against the Dolphins. In those six games, Purdy averaged 218 passing yards per game and threw 13 touchdowns against three interceptions.
Purdy was safe. He went out there, found the open man, and gave the ball to Christian McCaffrey. His job was to not lose the game…and he never did.
The 49ers had won four straight games when Purdy took over. He won the next six, leading San Francisco to the playoffs. His performance was enough to earn Rookie of the Year votes, ultimately finishing in third despite playing just six games.
Trey Lance’s Upside Is Tantalizing
Although he was the third overall pick in 2021, Lance has made just four career starts in two seasons. That little action is unprecedented for early first-round quarterbacks in the modern NFL.
Even after Garoppolo took the 49ers to the Super Bowl in 2019, the team was thinking about replacing him. After an injury-shortened 2020, the team traded up for Lance in the 2021 NFL Draft.
As a rookie, Lance sat behind Garoppolo, making two starts as an injury fill-in. Garoppolo played well enough, leading San Francisco to the NFC Championship Game, where they were one dropped interception away from returning to the Super Bowl.
Nevertheless, the 49ers entered the 2022 season committed to Lance as their starter. After being unable to find a trade partner for Garoppolo, the team retained him as the backup. As fate would have it, injury befell Lance in the second game of the season, forcing the team to turn back to Garoppolo.
Based on the team’s actions over the past three years, it’s evident they prefer a QB who is capable of making a true impact. Guys like Garoppolo and Purdy are good enough to keep the team always in contention, but they aren’t going to take over games the way guys like Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow do.
Lance’s combination of size, speed, and athleticism gives him mouthwatering upside. If he reaches his ceiling, he could be a top-five NFL quarterback. Of course, we’ve yet to see any evidence that will happen. However, it’s not as if Lance has had much of a chance between his backup status as a rookie and injury as a sophomore.
What Should the 49ers Do at Quarterback?
San Francisco has proven they can win with just about anyone. In fact, it literally took them running out of quarterbacks to be completely cooked against the Eagles.
Ideally, the 49ers could have their cake and eat it, too. To an extent, that may very well be possible.
Lance may have this sky-high ceiling, but he’s yet to show it. San Francisco could start him, just as they did last year, and give him a few weeks to stand out. If he doesn’t show progression and makes a ton of mistakes, they can always turn to Purdy.
On the flip side, starting Purdy over Lance may come across as throwing in the towel on Lance. There’s also the added element of Purdy’s elbow injury.
When asked about Purdy’s status at the end of March, Shanahan said, “He won’t be able to do anything on the field, for who knows? It could go anywhere from six months to eight months. So, it’s all open like that, and we’ll have a better idea … at three months out of surgery, they have a better idea of whether it’s going to be six months or eight months. … That’s all I know, and I’m pretty good with that.
“We’ll see at three months if he’ll be ready for camp, or if not, then perhaps we say it’s gonna go slow. It might be Week 1 and, at the latest, Week 4. It’s just all estimations, and we’ll see what happens.”
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It’s possible Purdy is ready for opening day. Shanahan’s comments notwithstanding, it’s also possible he misses the entire season, and the 49ers’ decision is made for them.
As if all of the above isn’t enough to consider, San Francisco also signed Sam Darnold this offseason. If the 49ers’ offense can make guys like C.J. Beathard and Nick Mullens look competent for brief stretches, why not Darnold? After all, the issue with Darnold was never his physical talent, but rather his inability to read defenses and progress through reads properly.
ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky believes “Sam Darnold is absolutely capable of taking this team back to the NFC Championship Game.” While I respectfully disagree with Orlovsky’s evaluation of Darnold as “one of the best talents that we’ve seen come out of college in years,” that doesn’t mean his comment is untrue.
Ultimately, I’m a fervent supporter of chasing upside. As long as Lance is healthy, he should get at least a reasonable audition to prove he can be the guy they drafted third overall in 2021.
Guys like Darnold and Purdy will always be there. And the team knows they work. Why not see if you can get that enhanced play from Lance to really put your team over the top?