Warning: Potential side effects of this Miami Dolphins column include anger and cognitive dissonance.
But the medicine is needed. Because the same information will inform decisions made by the Dolphins this offseason.
So brace yourselves for this truth:
The Dolphins’ passing game this season didn’t really work when both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle were on the field.
While both players are spectacular as individuals — Hill is expected to be the Offensive Player of the Year, and Waddle is a no-doubt top-20 receiver in the league — collectively, their whole didn’t come close to matching the sum of their parts.
Credit Hard Knocks in its finale for capturing Waddle’s honest assessment of a Dolphins offense that scored seven points Saturday against the Chiefs despite having their top two receivers, Tua Tagovailoa, and running backs Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane all available.
“Man, we can’t put up seven points, cuz,” Waddle told Hill on the bench. “Not in this type of game. Defense did all that they could do, and we just didn’t put up points. This s— is annoying as f—. We’re too talented to be doing this. If anything, defense should be struggling. They’ve got 11 new players.”
Do Miami Dolphins’ Offensive Pieces Fit?
When Miami traded for Hill nearly two years ago, the Dolphins immediately became the fastest and most explosive receiving room in football.
But there were always questions about skill overlap between Hill and Waddle. Traditionally, teams would pair a speed receiver with a big-bodied target.
But given Tagovailoa’s preference for throwing to fast, sudden players, the Dolphins tried a different path.
Has it worked?
Certainly, the offensive production was way up in 2023 compared to before Hill got here. But there’s compelling evidence that it could be even better with a roster modification.
Of the four possible personnel groupings — both Waddle and Hill on the field, Waddle but not Hill on the field, Hill but not Waddle on the field, and neither on the field — the splits are telling.
Of course, the Dolphins’ passing offense was at its worst when neither was on the field.
But it was also worse in 2023 when both were on the field compared to just one of the two.
Dolphins Offensive Stats With Both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle
- 286 dropbacks
- 168 of 265 (63.4%)
- 2,138 passing yards
- 10 passing touchdowns
- 8 interceptions
- 8.2 yards per attempt
- 89.8 rating
- Total EPA: 34.1
- Pass EPA: 49.8
- Rush EPA: -13.52
Dolphins Offensive Stats With Hill But Not Waddle
- 180 dropbacks
- 119 of 168 (70.8%)
- 1,323 passing yards
- 14 passing touchdowns
- 4 interceptions
- 8.4 yards per attempt
- 112.9 rating
- Total EPA: 28.90
- Pass EPA: 31.70
- Run EPA: -0.96
Dolphins Offensive Stats With Waddle But Not Hill
- 97 dropbacks
- 72 of 89 (80.9%)
- 713 passing yards
- 4 passing touchdowns
- 0 interceptions
- 8.4 yards per attempt
- 116.6 rating
- Total EPA: 32.86
- Pass EPA: 19.33
- Rush EPA: 15.03
Dolphins Offensive Stats With Neither Waddle Nor Hill
- 48 dropbacks
- 34 of 44 (77.3%)
- 340 passing yards
- 2 passing touchdowns
- 3 interceptions
- 7.0 yards per attempt
- 88.6 rating
- Total EPA: -18.78
- Pass EPA: -9.12
- Rush EPA: 15.40
Making Sense of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle Splits
So how do we interpret these numbers? Again, there’s no denying that the Dolphins’ passing offense was the least efficient in 2023 when both were on the bench.
And the total and passing EPA stats are, of course, the most when they were both on the field because that was the team’s primary package. More snaps equals higher total EPA.
But it’s quite revealing that even though Waddle logged 84 fewer snaps than Hill in 2023, the Dolphins had a higher total EPA when Waddle was on the field and Hill was not than vice versa.
The biggest reason?
MORE: Did Christian Wilkins Hint at His Miami Dolphins Future in Hard Knocks Finale?
The Dolphins’ run game gets substantially worse when Hill is in the game. That’s nothing new. It’s been the reality all season. But the passing splits cannot be ignored.
Miami’s passing offense had a higher yards-per-attempt average and a much higher completion percentage and passer rating when one but not both were on the field.
Certainly, mitigating factors should be considered. It’s harder to throw the ball on third down than on first and second, and third downs are when your top two receivers are in the game.
These stats also don’t account for the quality of opponent. Hill played against every playoff team that the Dolphins faced this year. Waddle did not.
Should Miami Dolphins Consider Moving Hill or Waddle?
And yet, Miami’s offense literally and figuratively froze in the biggest game of the year, with both Hill and Waddle available.
The Dolphins will spend the coming weeks and months trying to determine why.
PFN asked Dolphins general manager Chris Grier Monday if it was safe to assume that the team didn’t believe big changes were needed this offseason.
“Yeah, I mean we feel good about it. But like we said, this is 48 hours or less after a game still. We go through our process like we always talk about. Coaches are going to go look through everything from spring through the summer, through the season.
“Personnel will go talk through everything and look at it through our lens. We’ll get together, we’ll talk about it, and exit interviews here be a part of it. Mike [McDaniel] will meet with the coaching staff and then we’ll all get together and we’ll make appropriate decisions that we feel we need to make.”
That’s not exactly a yes.
So while it’s not the likeliest outcome, fans should mentally prepare themselves for at least the possibility that Waddle or Hill will be traded this offseason.
And the smart money in that situation would be Waddle, not Hill — no matter what the advanced stats say.
Hill is a two-time reigning team MVP and the NFL‘s receiving leader. No matter his salary (his 2024 cap charge is a monstrous $31.3 million), the fans would probably storm Dolphins HQ if Hill was dealt.
So it’s likely Waddle or no one, particularly since he:
- Was quietly unhappy with his role in 2023.
- Likely wants a contract extension this offseason. (Spotrac estimated his market value at $23.1 million annually.)
Since Waddle entered the league in 2021, he ranks 15th league-wide in catches (251), 13th in receiving yards (3,385), 22nd in touchdowns (18), and 20th in defensive pass interference yards drawn (140).
And he’s put together this impressive résumé despite ranking just 20th in targets. He’d be a No. 1 receiver for more than half the league.
MORE: Why Miami Dolphins Are ‘Not Really Concerned’ About Being $40M+ Over the Salary Cap
If the price is right — and any trade package has to include either a star player or a first-round pick in return — perhaps the Dolphins send Waddle to one of those teams this offseason.
“Me personally, I’ve seen [a guy] that’s just came in day in, day out, just grinding,” Tagovailoa said last month. “Not once did I ever see him feel sorry for himself throughout the success that Tyreek has had. But you could see that there had been some times where it’s like, ‘Man, I sort of wish I was involved more, or this happened more, this happened.’
“You know, it’s one of those deals where I’ve said it before where we’ve called a play for Waddle to be the person, you know, to be first in that progression, and it just so happens, the defense doesn’t allow for that route to be open.
“But, as anyone else would, I’m sure he was very frustrated, you know, coming from being the WR1 in [his] rookie year and in my second year to, you know … wide receiver 1B.
“‘Like, where do I fit in this offense?’ And so for, you know, for him to have been able to go out, you know, and show to everyone and remind everyone like — letting you guys know, ‘I’m still that person if you guys allow me that opportunity.’ So, very proud of what he’s done, what he’s put on tape, and what he continues to do for our team.”
KEEP READING: Will Mike McDaniel Surrender Play-Calling in 2024?
Want to predict the results of the 2023 NFL postseason with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? How about looking into in-depth breakdowns of team depth charts or the NFL playoff schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with all that and more!