Fantasy football managers are always seeking ways to align themselves with the elite offenses in the NFL, and the running game for the Kansas City Chiefs has been a tough one to figure out for the past season-plus. RB Isiah Pacheco provided the big-time fantasy numbers against the New York Jets. Does that make him a sell-high, or is it the beginning of a true breakout?
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The Case To Trade for Isiah Pacheco
The fact that the Chiefs have averaged four red zone trips per game during the Patrick Mahomes era speaks to the potential value of the RB1 in this offense. Still, it’s 2023, and not all backfields are constructed in a way that allows a single back to take over.
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That’s simply not the case in Kansas City. RB Jerick McKinnon lit the fantasy world on fire down the stretch last season, but he hasn’t had 130 touches in a season since 2017. In terms of valuing the draft capital spent, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s have expired, and it’s been more than a calendar year since the former first-rounder had a rush gain more than 20 yards.
Isiah Pacheco runs like the ground said something bad about his mom
— Al Smizzle (@AlZeidenfeld) October 2, 2023
Enter Pacheco, a hard-nosed, seventh-round pick, who has seen his carry count increase each game this season and just produced a career-best 158 total yards. Yes, the 48-yard touchdown is the highlight play that racked up the fantasy points, but look closer at the overall resume over the past month, and you’ll realize that this profile is one worth investing in.
He has now either been tackled inside the three-yard line or scored in every game this season. He’s seen 12 targets through four games, his most involved four-game stretch of his career. Now, he is finally being given the keys to the ground game.
- Week 1-3 RB carry share: 58.3%
- Week 4 RB carry share: 76.9%
Part of that Week 1-3 rate was impacted by the blowout of the Chicago Bears in Week 3, but the point remains — he is “the guy” in this offense. This is a level of clarity we’ve been begging for ever since it became clear that Edwards-Helaire wasn’t the answer.
Now that we have role definition, do you want to trade him away? Not a chance! The touch count likely won’t be elite, but as long as it falls consistently in the 14-17 range (currently averaging 16.3), he is going to carry a high floor, due to his running style and the position this offense puts him in.
Savvy fantasy football managers are always looking to win now and peak later. Well, the Chiefs end the regular season with a Cincinnati Bengals defense that got their noses bloodied in Week 4 by the struggling Titans (173 rushing yards and a touchdown) along with a pair of division opponents in the Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers, whose struggles in defending the run are far from a secret.
Trading for Pacheco right now may seem difficult, but that’s what people said about Apple stock as it began to gain steam. If you got in on the ground level of Apple, yes, you did better than those you jumped on board a few years later. But you know what those who jumped on a few years later aren’t doing? Regretting their decision.
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Coming off of the big performance against the Jets could result in the Pacheco manager looking to “sell high.” Go ahead, and see what their asking price is. Considering the injuries (Chargers RB Austin Ekeler and New York Giants RB Saquon Barkley) and efficiency issues (Raiders RB Josh Jacobs and Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry) atop the running back board, Pacheco is pushing RB1 status in my rest of season ranks.
Could you trade Philadelphia Eagles RB D’Andre Swift for him in a challenge trade? What about selling high on Miami Dolphins RB De’Von Achane after consecutive massive weeks? Don’t force it, but I’d take the temperature off your league in terms of Pacheco’s value — you might be able to acquire a differencemaker for less than you think.