After signing midway last season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, WR Antonio Brown is going under the radar with the 2021 NFL season set to begin on Thursday night. But should this be the case? What is Antonio Brown’s fantasy outlook for Week 1, and should fantasy football managers start him on Thursday Night Football against the Dallas Cowboys?
Antonio Brown had mixed results in 2021 with the Buccaneers
After all of the issues that kept Brown away from the NFL for nearly a year and a half from 2019-2020, his arrival in Tampa Bay raised concern about it ultimately devaluing both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. However, this is not the same Brown that once dominated the NFL.
For perspective, Brown is the only receiver since 2010 to have a No. 1 overall fantasy ADP (average draft position), doing so in 2016. Not even prime Calvin Johnson or Julio Jones pulled this feat off in their careers.
Brown performed at WR2 level with Bucs
In his eight games with the Buccaneers last season, Brown recorded 45 receptions on 61 targets for 483 yards and 4 touchdowns while averaging 14.6 fantasy points per game as the WR22 over this stretch. In fact, Brown led the team in targets over the back half of the season and was on a 17-game pace of 130.
With that said, the stats are a bit inflated. In Week 17, with a contract bonus on the line and against a putrid Atlanta Falcons defense, Tom Brady force-fed Brown targets, recording 11 receptions on 14 targets for 138 yards and 2 touchdowns. That one game accounts for 22% of his targets, 24% of the receptions, 31.5% of the yards, and 50% of his touchdowns.
Brown was boom or bust, recording WR1 performances in two games, with his other six games going outside the WR3 weekly rankings.
With that said, it’s hard to ignore the volume Brown saw, averaging 7.8 targets per game. And that includes three games where he played less than 50% of the offensive snaps. While his explosiveness and upside might not be on par with Godwin or Evans, the gap might not be as distant as some believe.
Keep an eye on Buccaneers in the Week 1 injury report
With the Buccaneers set to host the Cowboys in the 2021 season opener on Thursday, the schedule has been accelerated. Tuesday served as the final day of practice. Unfortunately for the Buccaneers, there were two surprise additions — something you never want to see less than 48 hours from kickoff.
The Buccaneers announced that Godwin was added to the Week 1 injury report on Tuesday with a quad injury and labeled as a limited participant. Godwin wasn’t on the injury report Monday, leading to speculation the injury popped up during the final practice.
It’s unclear whether it’s an issue that Godwin could play through. We’ll have a better indication on Wednesday when the game’s injury status report comes out.
Joining Godwin on the injury report was Brown, listed as a DNP with a knee injury. However, Greg Auman of The Athletic, who covers the Buccaneers, said Brown’s absence from practice is “intended as a veteran maintenance day.”
Should fantasy managers start Antonio Brown in Week 1 vs. Dallas?
I would have said yes even before the recent injury news surrounding Godwin. The Cowboys were one of the worst defenses in all of football last season when defending the pass, ranking 11th in yards per game, 22nd in yards per attempt, and T-27th in touchdowns allowed.
For fantasy, it was even worse, coming in at 28th in fantasy points allowed per game to opposing WRs at 41.99 and 32nd in points per target (2.11). It wasn’t as if teams were hyper-aggressive against them either, as the WRs facing the Cowboys were targeted the eighth-fewest per game last season at 19.19 targets. The issue was the league-worst 13.3% touchdown percentage.
Brown would see a fantasy boost if Godwin misses time
The Buccaneers will have one of the best passing attacks in football in 2021. Brady is back and as hungry as ever. He has three receivers who all could go off at any minute. But when you potentially remove one from the game plan (as with Godwin and his quad), the remaining players see a substantial boost in value.
This game has the second-highest total of the week, meaning we expect fireworks from both teams. Should Godwin miss the game entirely or limited to a snap count, Brown would be a must-start with WR2/low-end WR1 upside in Week 1 for fantasy. He could see 8+ targets without breaking a sweat.
If Godwin’s status is nothing more than precautionary, Brown is a lower-end WR3 with WR2 upside. Either way, he needs to find a way into your fantasy football lineups for Week 1.