The New York Giants managed the best of both worlds by extending Daniel Jones and using the franchise tag on Saquon Barkley this offseason. Barkley clearly isn’t pleased with the outcome, as he’s skipping offseason workouts and hasn’t yet signed his franchise tender. But the current running back market proves the Giants are right to hold off on giving Barkley a significant contract offer.
Saquon Barkley Has No Leverage in Giants Contract Talks
The Giants are believed to have proposed a three-year deal in the range of $12 million to $12.5 million per year to Barkley during New York’s November bye week. After the season ended, Big Blue may have offered a “smidge” more.
Barkley rejected both of those offers, but he’s probably regretting that decision now.
At the end of March, Giants general manager Joe Schoen said there was “no outstanding offer” on the table for Barkley. Schoen indicated after the draft that the two sides would “reconvene,” but Barkley is now negotiating from a position of weakness.
The RB market is no longer favorable for Barkley as he pursues a new contract with the Giants. This offseason, the three top free agent running backs — Barkley, Josh Jacobs, and Tony Pollard — all received the franchise tag. Miles Sanders earned the most expensive multi-year deal at $6.35 million annually, while David Montgomery was the only other back to receive more than $6 million per year.
Meanwhile, teams are having a difficult time trading star running backs. Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, and Austin Ekeler have all been rumored to be on the trade block, but we haven’t any reports of clubs with more than passing interest in any of those veterans. Henry and Cook both earn more than $12.5 million per season, but the Chargers can’t find a decent offer for Ekeler even those he’s making just $6.25 million.
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Joe Mixon probably would have been released by now had the Bengals found an early-round RB in the draft, and he’ll probably still have to accept a pay cut to remain on Cincinnati’s roster. Aaron Jones has already taken a $5 million pay reduction from the Packers.
It’s a bad time to be a veteran running back. As teams realize they can find adequate options in the middle rounds of the draft or at the second and third tiers of the free agent market, salaries at the position will continue to come down.
Barkley is also a victim of the “anchoring effect,” a cognitive bias often seen in negotiation. While the Giants may have once offered Barkley more than $12 million per year, he’s now tied to a franchise tag worth $10.1 million. New York is reportedly more than happy to let Barkley play out the 2023 campaign at that number, and it will be hard for the club to move off that figure as a starting point in contract talks.
“Listen, Saquon is a very good football player, captain last year. He’s a good locker room guy. I love him. We want him to be here,” Schoen said last week. “But you’ve got to have a deal where both parties are happy with where you end up.”
Perhaps unsurprisingly, Ralph Vacchiano of FOX Sports says, “It doesn’t sound like a long-term deal for Barkley is particularly close,” and noted that the Giants are unlikely to increase their offer. And that might be why New York opted to use a fifth-round pick on fellow running back Eric Gray.
Who Is Eric Gray?
The Giants were widely expected to select a running back in the mid-to-late rounds of the draft and did just that by adding Gray out of Oklahoma at pick No. 172. Schoen told Barkley ahead of time that New York was planning to take a back in this year’s draft, per Paul Schwartz of the New York Post.
Although a source told Vacchiano that Gray isn’t necessarily viewed as Barkley’s successor, the rookie RB will allow the Giants to “hedge their bets” if Barkley departs as a 2024 free agent.
A former four-star recruit, Gray finally broke out in his fourth college season. In 12 games, Gray posted 1,366 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns, adding 33 receptions and 229 yards through the air while earning second-team All-Big 12 honors.
“At 5’10”, 210 pounds, Gray is very compact and well-leveraged,” PFN’s Ian Cummings wrote in Gray’s pre-draft scouting report. “That build helps him work through and withstand contact. But beyond that, he’s also a very smooth runner in short areas, with the lateral burst, loose hips, twitch, and anticipatory instincts to set up defenders and capitalize on vacated space.
“Gray is a smart runner who has the athleticism to control space. And on top of that, he’s also a very strong receiving threat with utility at multiple levels. He’s not quite as explosive or as fast as other top-end RB prospects. But regardless, Gray has ideal three-down utility.”
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That receiving ability could make Gray a contender for passing and third-down work, especially if he can handle the intricacies of pass protection during his rookie campaign. (Cummings said Gray is a “willing” blocker but doesn’t always “achieve the correct form.”)
Even if Gray doesn’t become a Barkley replacement or even a regular contributor, his selection is indicative of Schoen and the Giants’ approach to running backs: don’t pay market value for a relatively replaceable position.