For a couple of months now, rumors have been swirling about Dalvin Cook’s future with the Minnesota Vikings. Following the NFL Draft, with the Vikings not moving Cook, it appeared as though his roster status was safe. However, recent reports suggest Cook’s status remains uncertain. Should early Best Ball drafters be scooping up all the Alexander Mattison they can get?
Dalvin Cook’s Uncertain Status Presents an Opportunity for Fantasy Managers
There are pros and cons to drafting fantasy teams this early. On the one hand, with values still very much in flux, you can put together rosters that simply won’t be possible in a couple of months.
On the other hand, players can get hurt, or their values can shift so much so that you have literally guaranteed zeros on your roster.
Regardless of your opinion on the matter, if you’re drafting a Best Ball team in May, you need to embrace the uncertainty. If you’re not going to wait until player roles and team situations are more clear, you need to at least attempt to leverage the time in which you are drafting to your advantage.
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On April 29, NBC Boston’s Albert Breer reported, “The Vikings will listen on Dalvin Cook.” More recently, Adam Schefter was quoted saying, “I think there is some real question as to whether or not he will be in Minnesota this upcoming season. I think it’s fair to say his future is in question.”
Interestingly, Cook’s status doesn’t really impact himself that much. Whether he stays in Minnesota or plays elsewhere, he’s going to be his team’s lead back. Cook’s 2023 team has far more of an impact on Mattison.
Alexander Mattison Has League-Winning Upside
Ever since the Vikings drafted him, Mattison’s fantasy value has been exactly the same. He’s the clear handcuff for Cook, and every bit as good as when Cook doesn’t play.
Currently, Mattison’s Underdog ADP is RB32, 104th overall. Fantasy managers understand that Mattison is never going to have a standalone role alongside Cook. So, he’s being drafted based on his status as an elite handcuff.
Last season, Cook played in all 17 games, but typically, he misses around three or four per season. In Best Ball, getting three or four games of RB1 production from Mattison is well worth the price tag.
Surprisingly, all of the smoke surrounding the Vikings potentially releasing or trading Cook hasn’t really boosted Mattison’s ADP. Early Best Ball drafters have a unique opportunity to capitalize on this, however.
At his current price, Mattison is already a reasonable pick for the reasons I just mentioned. But right now, for the time being, fantasy managers are getting the added upside of him potentially being the Vikings’ lead back for the entire season.
Minnesota currently has three other running backs on the roster — 2021 fourth-rounder and special teamer Kene Nwangwu, 2022 fifth-rounder Ty Chandler, and 2023 seventh-rounder DeWayne McBride. If Cook were suddenly removed from the roster, none of these guys would take work away from Mattison.
We’ve seen how the Vikings’ backfield operates. It’s a one-man show. When healthy, that one man is Cook. When he’s out, that man is Mattison.
We also have enough evidence Mattison is just as good as Cook. Although it’s only six games, Mattison has averaged 20.4 PPR fantasy points per game without Cook active. In those games, Mattison averages 19.5 carries and 4.5 targets. He’s a true three-down back utilized as both a runner and a receiver.
While I would stop short of saying confidently that Mattison would average 20 ppg over the course of a full season, fantasy managers should have every confidence Mattison could average at least 15 ppg. Every single one of us would sign up for 15 ppg from our third-round RB right now. Mattison offers that upside in the eighth or ninth round.
Upside Wins Championships — Especially in Best Ball
In seasonal fantasy leagues, managers still don’t chase upside enough. There are 11 other managers you need to beat. Merely having a solid team isn’t going to get it done. As the great Ricky Bobby once said, “If you’re not first, you’re last.”
While that actually doesn’t make sense and is completely untrue, there’s still a valuable takeaway — your goal should be to finish first. If that means risking coming in last, so be it.
The concept of chasing upside is even more pronounced in Best Ball formats. If you’re in a large-scale tournament, multiply that tenfold. To win these contests, you need ceiling outcomes. What better type of player to draft than an RB3 with top-five upside?
If the smoke surrounding Cook leaving Minnesota continues to grow, Mattison’s ADP is only going to rise. Now is the time to extract the most value.
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Currently, Mattison is being drafted at his ADP floor, with all upside and no downside. Even if Cook stays, Mattison still isn’t a horrible pick on the likelihood he’ll start a couple of games. But if Cook leaves, Mattison’s ADP will skyrocket into the second round.
In fact, even if Mattison wound up being a completely wasted pick, that still wouldn’t torpedo your season, given where he’s going now. But if the ceiling outcome hits, he could very well win you your league.
Fantasy managers drafting early Best Ball teams should make it a priority to take Mattison as much as they can. Until his ADP corrects or we get some finality on the issue, Mattison is all reward with very little risk.