The Seattle Seahawks looked like a playoff lock after Week 10, when they had just beaten the Washington Commanders to move to 6-3.
But they’ve now lost three consecutive games. Seattle would no longer be in the postseason if the 2023 NFL campaign ended today, and the club’s recent downturn and demanding upcoming schedule might have the Seahawks on the outside looking after Week 18.
With the help of PFN’s Free Playoff Predictor, let’s sort through Seattle’s playoff chances and determine what it can accomplish in Week 14 when facing the San Francisco 49ers.
Week 14 Update
49ers (10-3) defeated Seahawks (6-7)
Ravens (10-3) defeated Rams (6-7)
Vikings (7-6) defeated Raiders (5-8)
Bears (5-8) defeated Lions (9-4)
Buccaneers (6-7) defeated Falcons (6-7)
Saints (6-7) defeated Panthers (1-12)
Cowboys (10-3) defeated Eagles (10-3)
What Are the Seahawks’ Playoff Chances Entering Week 14?
While the NFC playoff structure includes three Wild Card berths, the loser of the NFC East — the Philadelphia Eagles or the Dallas Cowboys — will almost surely claim the No. 5 seed. That leaves the sixth and seventh seeds open for the rest of the conference’s non-division winners.
The Seahawks are one of five 6-6 teams in the NFC. Those other clubs — the Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams, and Atlanta Falcons — all have at least a shot at a Wild Card entry.
MORE: Seattle Seahawks Depth Chart
The five-win New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are still in the mix, but they’re more likely to compete with the Falcons for the NFC South crown than re-enter the Wild Card race.
The Seahawks’ playoff chances are not promising among this group of mid-tier NFC contenders. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) puts Seattle’s postseason odds at roughly one in four heading into Week 14, well behind the Packers (67.8%), Vikings (49.3%), and Rams (43.8%).
Seahawks’ Week 14 Playoff Scenarios
What has to happen for the Seahawks to get back in the conversation in Week 14? A win over the 49ers is a must.
Beating San Francisco is quite the obstacle, as Seattle is a 10.5-point road underdog to one of the NFL’s best teams. But if the Seahawks can pull off the upset, their playoff chances will double to 50%.
Losses by the NFC’s other Wild Card contenders would help boost Seattle’s postseason odds by a few percentage points, but a win against the 49ers would do more for the Seahawks’ playoff path than any other Week 14 outcome.
If Seattle wins this week and the Packers, Vikings, and Rams all lose, the Seahawks will move into the sixth seed in the NFC playoff picture.
What about a worst-case scenario? If the Seahawks lose and those other playoff hopefuls all win, Seattle will fall to 6-7, a game back of Green Bay, Minnesota, and Los Angeles. Their playoff odds would sit at just 7%.
Can Seattle Still Win the NFC West?
Technically, the Seahawks could still emerge with the NFC West. They’re three games behind the 49ers with five weeks left, so scenarios exist wherein Seattle takes the division.
But they’re highly unlikely. The Seahawks have just a 0.1% chance of winning the NFC West, per FPI. Even a win over San Francisco in Week 14 wouldn’t bring their odds above 1%.
On the flip side, Seattle will be eliminated from winning the division if it loses to the 49ers on Sunday. San Francisco would open up a four-game lead in that scenario while holding the head-to-head tiebreaker after sweeping the season series.
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