Fantasy football managers are wondering if last week was the real deal. The Cincinnati Bengals‘ fantasy preview evaluates what Ja’Marr Chase did last weekend, while the Seattle Seahawks‘ fantasy outlook dives into their pass game coming out of the bye.
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Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals
- Spread: Bengals -3
- Total: 45.5
- Seahawks implied points: 21.3
- Bengals implied points: 24.3
Quarterbacks
Geno Smith: The former West Virginia Mountaineer celebrated his 33rd birthday on Tuesday, and his fantasy managers need a gift if they remain loyal to him. The 2022 breakout star has just one top-15 finish on his resume this season.
Sinks can normally withstand a singular leak, but it’s a problem when water starts coming in from various spots. That’s the current situation with Smith. Through four games, 68.2% of his rushing yards have come on a single carry – a lack of versatility that has his floor sitting far lower this last year.
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But wait, there’s more. In two of his four performances so far, he has been held under 115 passing yards. In short, there is nothing “safe” about his profile this season, which was the story of his 2022 campaign (13 games with at least 210 passing yards and 11 games north of 15 rushing yards).
Still, there are some metrics to like in this matchup. The Bengals are a top-10 team in blitz rate and bottom-five in hurry rate. If they are going to leave a rested WR D.K. Metcalf and WR Tyler Lockett in single coverage with time to work, Smith is going to post a manageable fantasy stat line. Combine that potential with Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow potentially putting pressure on Smith to keep up, and I have him as a top-15 player at the position.
Joe Burrow: Is Burrow back? After not posting a single top-20 finish through four weeks, Burrow was a top-10 producer last week in Arizona against the Cardinals – thanks to 317 yards and four touchdowns on 46 attempts. He employed the tried-and-true strategy of throwing almost every other pass to his best receiver, and it paid dividends.
The Seahawks grade as one of the better pressure teams in the league, thanks in large part to their dismantling of the New York Giants in Week 4, but I’m not too worried about that. Burrow owned the second-lowest aDOT in the NFL through four weeks, and it only ticked up by 6.9% during his big Week 5.
With or without WR Tee Higgins, Burrow is the QB I want in this specific game. He comes in as a top-12 play for me this week.
Running Backs
Kenneth Walker III: He has been a scoring machine (five touchdowns) since being held out of the end zone in Week 1. That has guided him to three straight top-15 finishes at the position.
The combination of volume (17+ carries in three straight) and propensity for the big play (three 30+ yard gains over his past two games) makes him a top-10 option at running back this week and the rest of the season. You have yourself a star that was drafted at a discount – enjoy the ride.
Zach Charbonnet: The touch count has yet to take off, and I don’t envision that changing any time soon. Still, the fact that his yards per carry have increased each week is at least worth noting.
Charbonnet remains one of my favorite insurance backs in the game. The talent is there, and with second-round draft capital tied to him, he’s a Walker injury away from being a lineup staple. The dream of standalone value in a healthy backfield is dead, in my opinion, and that is why he ranks outside of my top 30.
Joe Mixon: The Bengals’ back has seen his rushing yardage total increase every week this season (56-59-65-67-81), and he has earned at least four targets in the majority of games.
Mixon has been the reliable option in this offense up to this point, and his volume allows him to overcome a lack of explosion (three straight games without a 15-yard touch).
Mixon has just one touchdown on 97 touches this season, which is a rate I expect to regress closer to his career norm of a score every 31 touches as this offense hits its stride. You can feel good about starting Mixon every week.
Wide Receivers
DK Metcalf: It may mean something, or it could mean nothing, but – per the Week 6 Cheat Sheet – Metcalf’s top game last season in terms of catches (11) and targets (15) came off of the bye. He has at least 75 yards or a touchdown in all four games this season and should be locked into lineups across the board with confidence.
That said, I’m tempted to look elsewhere when building DFS lineups this week. The Bengals have allowed just one touchdown to opposing WR1s this season. In my opinion, the fact that the Bengals are a top-10 blitz rate defense that ranks bottom 10 in hurry rate opens them up to a route-running servant like Tyler Lockett, especially coming off of a bye where Seattle’s coaching staff has extra time to scheme up creative combinations.
Tyler Lockett: He hasn’t been Bengals’ WR Tee Higgins bad, but his profile reads similarly: a top-10 finish in Week 2 surrounded by three finishes outside of the top 40.
As mentioned in the Metcalf preview, I like Lockett’s archetype for DFS more than Metcalf’s in this specific matchup on a per-dollar basis, but it’s clear that there is some risk involved. From 2018-22, he was recording a 73.9% catch rate, while so far this season, he’s lowered to 63%.
Do I expect that catch percentage to rise back to Lockett’s established norm? I do, but there is the risk of Geno Smith generally falling back to Earth after what he did last season (2022: 5.2% pass TD rate, 2023: 4.1% pass TD rate).
I’m starting Lockett where I have him, and I prefer him to a handful of WR1s, such as Terry McLaurin, Marquise Brown, Garrett Wilson, DeAndre Hopkins, and others this week.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: The rookie was born on Valentine’s Day, but he hasn’t done anything to show his fantasy managers love. He should remain rostered the same way San Francisco 49ers RB Elijah Mitchell does; no standalone value but is one injury away from being elevated to a weekly option.
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He’s still a fine dynasty option and could be acquired at a reasonable price if the team with him is looking to win right now. He is also the focal point of an incredibly specific stat comparison that only nerds like me find entertaining. He was born the same day (12 years later) as a receiver in Alshon Jeffery, who found his fantasy footing in his second year.
Smith-Njigba | Jeffery
- Year 2 of college, yards per catch: 16.9 | 17.2
- Year 2 of college, TD receptions: 9 | 9
- First four NFL games, catches: 12 | 11
- First four NFL games, targets: 20 | 18
- First four NFL games, the number of games with a catch over 10 yards: 1 | 1
Thank you for indulging me.
Ja’Marr Chase: Remember when Chase had 70 yards through two weeks to open this season? He had 68 yards in touchdown catches alone against the Arizona Cardinals last week. Additionally, his target share has jumped from 32.6% in Week 3 and 33.3% in Week 4 to a nice 43.2% in Week 5.
The plan to get Burrow right is pretty clear. He needs to give Chase an opportunity. This trend will slow sooner than later, and the return of Tee Higgins will make a dent, but not one big enough to knock him off my WR1 line. It’s possible that Chase was to blame for your slow start, so now, you owe him an apology for losing your temper.
Number of Week 5 targets deemed 'open' or 'wide open' according to the @FantasyPtsData Suite:
15 – Ja'Marr Chase
8 – Adam Thielen, Tyreek Hill
7 – Stefon Diggs, Travis KelceImportant context – the average depth of target on those open targets⬇️ pic.twitter.com/jlzyaciCQy
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 10, 2023
Tee Higgins: The broken rib from Week 4 caused Higgins to miss his matchup against Arizona, but could the week off do him some good? While the targets have been there (7.3 over the two seasons prior), the production has not (three finishes outside of the top 80 WRs).
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This is a situation I’ll continue to track until kickoff as I try to get a feel for how limited he will be if he’s active. He’s considerably lower in my ranks than when the season kicked off, but he’s still currently inside of my top 25.
Tyler Boyd: With Higgins active in Weeks 1-4, Boyd avenged just 6.8 targets and 31.8 yards. With a broken rib sidelining the receiver last weekend in Arizona, Boyd exploded for seven targets and 39 yards.
Boyd and Smith-Njigba are not to be viewed the same, despite their season-opening role as the clear WR3 on their respective teams being identical. I’m fine with rostering him for a decent target count if you run into injuries and need volume.
But I’m not fine with expecting him to project as a top-35 receiver.
Tight Ends
Given the firepower at receiver and ability to pick up yards on the ground, neither of these offenses requires a tight end to do much. There is truly no such thing as a bad TE streamer, given how little it takes to produce at a top-12 level, but there are “less good” options. The TEs on both of these rosters would qualify as such.
Should You Start Geno Smith or Joe Burrow?
It wouldn’t shock me at all if both of these quarterbacks returned top-12 value. The Bengals hold the defensive edge in yards per pass attempt and red zone touchdown rate, giving Burrow the matchup edge in a very close call.
Should You Start Tyler Lockett or Nico Collins?
With Tank Dell out, Collins’ target share could be truly elite. That said, the matchup with the Saints isn’t ideal for a receiver who has been held under 40 yards in two of his past three games.
Lockett, on the other hand, benefits from a week of rest and plays in a game that has shootout potential if the Bengals truly have turned a corner. Collins’ ceiling is higher, but at this point in the ranks, I target floor and Lockett holds that edge.