As Sean Payton sat down to speak with the media about the state of the Denver Broncos at the NFL’s Annual League Meeting on Monday, he was blunt about what he’d seen the previous season. Payton stated the film was hard to watch, which is an understatement.
I wouldn’t wish to comb through the 2022 Broncos offensive moving pictures on my worst enemy. A comedy of errors doesn’t begin to accurately describe what I saw. CNN’s Jake Tapper once called a presidential debate “a hot mess inside a dumpster fire inside a train wreck.” That climbs closer to the summit of awfulness that was Denver’s offense a season ago, but it still feels too kind to the truth.
The truth is Denver has a talented offense that performed as one of the most underwhelming units we’ve seen in quite some time. While losing Tim Patrick, Javonte Williams, KJ Hamler, and others throughout the season certainly didn’t help, a fully healthy squad would have been just as disappointing.
Sean Payton Admits Broncos’ Film Was ‘Hard To Watch’
I’m still surprised that Payton took the Broncos’ job. At the end of September, when Denver had the 28th-best dropback success rate and the 22nd-best rushing success rate, I wrote that the Broncos had a Russell Wilson problem.
That hasn’t dissipated, and it takes a hallucinogenic imagination to believe we’ll ever see the version of Wilson that was arguably one of the top five quarterbacks in the NFL. That player is dead and gone, and it appears the world as a whole understands that.
That’s the allure, I guess. Payton does not lose in this situation either way. If he gets Wilson to be a productive, consistent QB again, Payton’s a hero in Denver, just as he is in New Orleans. If he can’t, well, Wilson was a lost cause who was never going to turn things around.
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But Wilson was far from the only issue. Play-calling and execution were consistent problems as well, and it ultimately led to Nathaniel Hackett’s departure after an embarrassing Week 16 loss against a Rams team that had been looking even more directionless than the Broncos before that week.
Adding Mike McGlinchey at his price tag was met with criticism, but he’s undoubtedly an upgrade at right tackle. Ben Powers is a solid left guard. But both of them really flourish as run blockers. Denver’s offense will likely look similar to the Saints’ offense post-Drew Brees. Payton and George Paton are doing what they can to run efficiently, which includes signing RB Samaje Perine, a solid pass protector and receiver out of the backfield.
Following Denver’s offseason moves thus far, what are their biggest issues, and how might Payton mitigate those issues schematically?
Russell Wilson’s Issues
Wilson remains the Broncos’ worst enemy on offense. Even late in the season, where he started having better statistical outputs against the Chiefs twice and the Chargers once, he’s so frustratingly inconsistent on a play-to-play basis that it takes away from the offense’s ability to consistently sustain drives.
The issue is that there isn’t just one problem Wilson and Payton must navigate before and into the season. Wilson makes confounding decisions regularly, his pocket management is an abomination, and his athleticism has disintegrated as if Thanos has snapped his fingers in this universe.
Some of these issues were already understood prior to arriving in Denver. We knew that Wilson wasn’t Brees, Tom Brady, or Peyton Manning. He’s a playmaker and improviser with one of the best deep balls we’ve ever seen.
And according to Johnny Kinsley, who has done a deep-ball project for years now, that part of Wilson’s game hasn’t disappeared.
Wilson’s presence in the pocket is his greatest weakness. While his eyes are inconsistent and his decision-making is baffling from time to time, this hurts him more than anything.
A few years ago, maybe Wilson feels the alleyway and steps up and to the right to extend the play. However, he’s resigned himself to the pocket more often than not, and too often, that spells disaster on intermediate dropback concepts.
Not only does Wilson refuse to step up here, but he’s also the reason why the rusher was able to get his hand on his arm as he threw. Wilson is out of sequence here by the apex of his drop. Needing to get to the proper position to deliver this pass leads him to drift left on his hitch, and that movement allows the rusher an angle to stick their arm in.
Once again, the feel for navigating pressure simply isn’t there. First, he wasn’t compromised to begin with. He could have survived in the pocket afforded to him here. And if he hangs tight, Wilson might like the wheel route on the outside, a 1-on-1 opportunity downfield.
But instead, Wilson tries to escape on the path the rusher is on, instead of sidestepping right and putting defenders in conflict between coverage and a potential scramble. It’s understandable to want to escape pressure where the numbers are, but the post actually gives Wilson numbers away from the formation’s pre-snap strength.
Payton can throw 3×1 Stick concepts into the dumpster like Ron Swanson did his computer when he learned about online cookies and Google Earth. But that doesn’t mean the quick game is lost on Wilson entirely.
In the above clip, and for most of this contest, the reserve right guard has protection issues. There’s no denying that the interior defender is on a collision course with Wilson here if he stays in the pocket.
However, this play also really showed a trend in the Broncos film when they tried running similar concepts. Even if Wilson has the leverage to throw the stick, he consistently refuses to do so. But in 2×2 stick variants, he consistently and almost immediately got backside to the combination of true stop routes finding holes in zone coverage.
So while 3×1 might be out of the question as a go-to quick game concept, Payton should be able to count on Wilson over the middle of the field to the stop.
And that was a theme in general. Although mesh is an Air Raid staple, it could behoove Payton to add it as a wrinkle to his West Coast offense because some of Wilson’s best throws on tape from last season came on intermediate routes over the middle against zone coverages.
FK 19 WANDA KEEP RT is a West Coast staple rollout. The normal progression here would be to peak the crosser, then go to the bench route (deep), then to the short out route — which in this case was a lazy whip — and finally to the tight end who releases late.
But it looks like Wilson wanted to read this out-to-in, which he is within his right to do for simplicity purposes. But for some reason, he immediately gives up on it to go all the way down to his fourth option, when he had Jerry Jeudy open on the bench.
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All Wilson needed to do was initially threaten the outside CB with a shoulder shrug or even a somewhat prolonged glance at Courtland Sutton on the shorter route. Had that been the case, he could have delivered a pass to Jeudy without much difficulty at all. Even if the cornerback keeps dropping instead of flattening out, Wilson would have then simply had Sutton for a short completion.
The movement play-action game is going to be critical to Payton’s offense. Wilson has lost a few steps, but he’s more than able to get into the open field and be a threat as a runner and passer (which we’ll see later).
Once again, Wilson is not Brees, Brady, or Manning. He won’t pick apart defenses with pre and post-snap wizardry. When things break down, Wilson must be able to create, not just physically but mentally.
The rep starts off positive for Wilson, who sidesteps, steps up, and gets his body back into position to throw. But the internal clock is screaming, and mild panic sets in, so Wilson tries scurrying out left. And he never once checks for his outlet on third and short.
“We want to be able to do it all,” Wilson said last November. “We want to be able to take our shots down the field, we want to be able to get the ball out quick, we want to be able to run the ball well, we want to be able to get our explosive runs, our explosive passes.”
Wilson acknowledged that he had to play better. Payton won’t just help from a schematic perspective but confidence-wise as well. He’s won a Super Bowl. Payton is seen as one of the greatest offensive minds in the game. That could breed the confidence Wilson needs in his surroundings for the offense to run more smoothly.
Offensive Ineptitude
Quarterback was far from the team’s only issue. Among the 24 quarterbacks with at least 400 dropbacks, Denver receivers dropped a league-high 8.4% of targets from Wilson in 2022. Sutton, Jeudy, and Greg Dulcich were the team’s top target earners, and each dropped over 8% of their targets last season.
Additionally, there seemed to be gross negligence in regards to attention to detail. When going through basic training, we used to do cadence push-ups for when we were on the concentric, we’d chant “attention to detail,” and on the eccentric, “teamwork is key.” In a world that is literally life or death, attention to detail is more important than anything.
There was none in Denver’s offense. Receivers were consistently sloppy with their execution. They often were too cute on releases that put them in bad spots to separate, and would often freelance and misread coverages and/or run improper routes.
The military is life or death, but football is a game of inches. That lack of detail consistently cost the Broncos. Kurt Warner did multiple videos on this throughout the season.
Mitigating the Damage
Verticality is key. Luckily, Denver has some speed on the roster, and they also have some bigger-bodied receivers who can hold their own in contested situations. While it goes against West Coast norms, a vertically-based offense is best for Wilson.
Wilson is a bit of a touchdown-to-checkdown passer. It’s okay to admit that. He’s an outstanding downfield passer, and Payton must that to his advantage. Running the ball efficiently will certainly help the offense overall, but it’s important to note that the effectiveness of the run game has no real bearing on play-action success.
Running a higher rate of seven-man protections could be a remedy for the sacks Wilson took a season ago. We often see second-level defenders absolutely scooting downfield to get depth in coverage when there are no underneath threats, which allows backs and tight ends to leak out late, offering easy targets for Wilson as checkdowns.
Wilson is a gifted passer. When confidence in the picture is there he can make quick, clean, and accurate throws. As J.T. O’Sullivan would say, the above throw has “big A anticipation.”
The Chiefs are double-mugging the A gaps pre-snap, which gives Wilson a Cover 0 pre-snap look. It turns out that’s exactly what he gets, but the pressure comes from the slot instead.
The safety is playing at depth and has to respect the vertical threat. He’s still backpedaling as Wilson releases this well before the receiver’s break, so there’s no chance he can click and close on this pass to break it up or intercept it.
Wilson effectively has two options between the No. 2 and No. 3 receivers, but because Juan Thornhill’s hips are slightly turned inside, he’d have an easier time breaking straight downhill on No. 3 than flipping and breaking outside.
This is the type of confident read with pressure bearing down that one expects from an 11-year veteran and Super Bowl champion.
Wilson went from 83 carries in 2020 to 43 the following season and 55 last year. The Broncos could not score in the red zone if their life depended on it early in the season. And despite Wilson’s mobility which, while compromised, is still there, he only carried the ball more than five times in a game thrice all year.
Wilson is still mobile and sturdy enough to be a weapon on the ground in the option game if used situationally. Simply having the threat of his legs is a massive advantage for the Broncos. His legs add a gap the defense is responsible for, which not only helps him personally but the entire rushing attack.
Wilson should be carrying the ball in the red zone and on third-and-short situations. And given his time with his science project Taysom Hill for so many seasons, I’d be shocked if Payton spends the majority of his time offensively running from under center.
Adding Payton to the Broncos’ formula should improve their offense by default. The confidence he’ll bring the unit because of his résumé alone should help, and that’s before he even installs his offense.
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There is no out in Wilson’s deal. Unless Denver is bad enough once again to draft a top QB in the 2024 NFL Draft with their first-round pick, Wilson will be the guy over the next two seasons. It will be fascinating to watch this experiment unfold in real-time.
We saw what ridding the Jacksonville Jaguars of poor culture was able to do for them just a season later. Perhaps Payton could duplicate that magic.