If you’re planning to make Week 1 NFL prop bets for Monday Night Football’s Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver Broncos matchup, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated as well as fall short of expectations. All prop bets are based on FanDuel Sportsbook or BetMGM.
Top NFL prop bets to bet today
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics culled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. Criteria such as age, durability, shifting personnel, scheduling, and other factors help shape these final assessments.
Javonte Williams Week 1 prop bets
Javonte Williams was a top-20 RB last year despite earning just under 250 touches. All summer, I’ve expected him to crack 275, meaning he should be a top-12 RB with some pop if he exceeds 300 touches. If you’ve been following his brief career and Denver’s upgrades this offseason, you can understand why I’ve been so bullish.
[bet-promo id=”174860″ ]Williams is a 2022 breakout candidate, and tonight he’ll face a Seahawks defense that should have trouble stopping the Broncos at every turn. I’m recommending several bets in the belief that Williams will feature prominently in Denver’s plans.
Rushing attempts under 14.5 (-140) — FanDuel
Rushing yards over 57.5 (-114) — FanDuel
Receptions over 2.5 (-113) — FanDuel
Receiving yards over 15.5 (-110) — FanDuel
Score a TD (+130) — FanDuel
Score first TD (+700) — FanDuel
Melvin Gordon Week 1 prop bets
Betting on Melvin Gordon alongside Williams might seem like a hedge. But it’s not. If Denver were facing the Buffalo Bills, I’d suggest perhaps only one could push for middling production. But against Seattle, there should be plenty of space for both to thrive.
Rushing attempts under 9.5 (+112) — FanDuel
Rushing yards over 38.5 (-115) — FanDuel
Receptions over 1.5 (-113) — FanDuel
Receiving yards over 9.5 (-110) — FanDuel
Score a TD (+180) — FanDuel
Score first TD (+1000) — BetMGM
Score last TD (+900) — BetMGM
Russell Wilson Week 1 prop bets
Russell Wilson facing his former team is not the same as Baker Mayfield facing his former team. I believe Wilson will be in near-peak form surrounded by five terrific playmakers. Simply put, it would be shocking if he lays a dud after everything that’s transpired in the past nine months.
Passing yards over 251.5 (-114) — FanDuel
Passing TDs over 1.5 (-128) — FanDuel
Score first TD (+2000) — BetMGM
Score last TD (+2000) — BetMGM
Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy Week 1 prop bets
When Tim Patrick went down for the season, this spread-it-around offense became a little more top-heavy. Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy could be Denver’s answer to DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Perhaps better? We simply don’t know.
What we do know is that Wilson “in his prime” should help bring out the best in his two top wideouts. I expect Sutton’s and Jeudy’s prop lines to jump next week after what we witness tonight.
Sutton receptions over 4.5 (-108) — FanDuel
Jeudy receptions over 4.5 (-128) — FanDuel
Sutton receiving yards over 60.5 (-114) — FanDuel
Jeudy receiving yards over 54.5 (-114) — FanDuel
Sutton score a TD (+165) — FanDuel
Jeudy score TD (+125) — FanDuel
Sutton score first TD (+900) — FanDuel
Jeudy score first TD (+750) — BetMGM
Rashaad Penny Week 1 prop bets
We have not forgotten about the Seahawks. The challenge for them tonight will be how effectively Rashaad Penny and Geno Smith can move the ball against a good Denver defense.
Since Penny’s usage in the passing game isn’t guaranteed, it’s easy to envision him getting phased out by the second half if this becomes a blowout. I’m concerned that Penny is quite TD-dependent, and that negative game script could keep him under 40 rushing yards.
Rushing attempts under 15.5 (EVEN) — BetMGM
Rushing yards under 72.5 (-114) — FanDuel
DeeJay Dallas Week 1 prop bets
Final player, and as always, one of my favorites since this past offseason. DeeJay Dallas might look like Seattle’s RB3 or even RB4, but he has the ability to eventually earn spot starts if Penny (and Kenneth Walker III) can’t stay healthy.
Even when Walker returns, we shouldn’t be surprised if Dallas earns a regular offensive role. Despite the longshot odds, throwing $1 each at these three bets could pay sizable dividends, especially since Dallas probably won’t be sidelined even if his team’s down big.
Score a TD (+600) — FanDuel
Score first TD (+2800) — BetMGM
Score last TD (+2500) — BetMGM