The Seattle Seahawks will face the Los Angeles Rams in Week 18. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Seahawks and Rams skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 18 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Seattle Seahawks Week 18 Start-Sit Advice
Geno Smith, QB
Updated at 2:55 ET on Sunday, January 5
Smith is active for today's game.
Geno Smith’s average depth of throw on Thursday night was 3.2 yards, the second shortest in a winning effort of his career (minimum 20 attempts). I think that might turn into more the norm with Jaxon Smith-Njigba transitioning to the lead man in Seattle’s receiving game; while there will be poor matchups for a skill set like that, facing a Rams defense that ranks 26th in preventing YAC isn’t a bad spot.
We saw Smith exploit this weakness in the Week 9 meeting, as he averaged 10.4 yards per short completion, his highest mark of the season. Even more promising is the fact that this move to a low-risk offense has required very little in the way of a learning curve – Smith has completed 67 of 81 shot passes (82.7%) over his past four games.
Generally speaking, I’m not sold on Smith as a stable asset week over week, but in this specific spot with so many of the big names at risk of seeing limited work, I think he’s a viable option in most formats.
Kenneth Walker III, RB
The Seahawks placed Kenneth Walker III (ankle) on injured reserve last week, ending a season that, in my opinion, has underwhelmed.
After clearing 18 PPR points in four of the first seven weeks this season, Walker didn’t reach 15 PPR points in a single game again. After that initial surge, his fantasy production was 29.6% below expectation as he struggled to generate the splash plays that we’ve come to associate with him.
Walker’s rush rates by season:
- 2022: 43.9% of carries vs. loaded box and 12.7% of carries gained 10+ yards
- 2023: 43.4% of carries vs. loaded box and 11% of carries gained 10+ yards
- 2024: 33.3% of carries vs. loaded box and 8.5% of carries gained 10+ yards
These rates scare me, but they don’t terrify me the way they would if Zach Charbonnet seized the opportunity (remove one outlier carry, and his yards per carry drops 9.3% down to 3.8 this season).
I’m not going to go as far as to say that I’m encouraged by 2024, but the usage in a passing game that is trending toward conservative with Jaxon Smith-Njigba ascending has me optimistic.
Walker’s pass-catching rates by season:
2022: 11.9% on-field target share and a 2.7% red-zone target rate
2023: 15.2% on-field target share and a 13% red-zone target rate
2024: 20.2% on-field target share and a 30.8% red-zone target rate
With Geno Smith under center for another year, I think we can pencil in a healthy version of Walker as the RB1 in Seattle and a weekly fantasy lineup lock – you just invest with eyes wide open to the fact that Walker has missed multiple games in all three of his NFL seasons.
Zach Charbonnet, RB
Zach Charbonnet is getting an extended run as the lead man in Seattle with Kenneth Walker III on the shelf, and it’s been a mixed bag of results.
On Thursday night, he managed just 57 yards on 15 carries in sloppy conditions, but he did manage to catch every pass thrown his way for a third time in four games. The Rams held this running game in check back in Week 9 (Charbonnet and Walker combined to pick up just 91 yards on 27 carries), making an inefficient afternoon very possible this week.
The middle of my RB2 tier this week is littered with volume backs on bad teams (Rico Dowdle, D’Andre Swift, etc.), and Charbonnet is no different. He’s a good bet for 15-18 touches, but the scoring limitations hold him back from pushing above RB15 for me.
DK Metcalf, WR
DK Metcalf hasn’t had a catch gaining more than 30 yards since Week 7 and hasn’t had a 100-yard game since September. The Jaxon Smith-Njigba breakout has really cut the legs out from underneath the upside of him, and I’m not sure we’ll see that recovery this week in a meaningless game.
As of this writing, I have no reason to think that Metcalf sits out this game and that means ranking him alongside another proven receiver on a downswing due to a younger star taking over in Cooper Kupp.
Both are ranked as fine Flex plays for me this week, but neither appears worthy of the “co-WR1” label that we were assigning them as recently as a month ago.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR
Last week was a struggle for many in fantasy championships and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (along with Terry McLaurin, James Conner, and others) was certainly a part of that.
After posting three straight top-20 finishes, JSN caught just three of six targets in Chicago for 32 yards. That game had plenty of weather concerns and was ugly for all 60 minutes, so I’m more than happy to write it off.
The Seahawks have nothing to play for, and while the Rams have some seed mobility, I don’t expect to place a ton of value on this contest either. Throwaway games like this are difficult to handicap, but Smith-Njigba looks like the top target earner in Seattle for years to come, and that is how I expect this offense to function on Sunday—he’s my WR16 this week, a ranking that will be lower than my 2025 season grade for him.
Tyler Lockett, WR
Updated at 2:55 ET on Sunday, January 5
Lockett is active for today's game.
Tyler Lockett saw four targets last week in Chicago, and the sheer fact that is notable should tell you all you need to know.
Those four looks were his most in a game since mid-October, and in a plus-matchup, Lockett paid them off with 20 yards. There’s no reason to look this way in any capacity with the Seahawks playing for nothing and Lockett’s statistical profile in clear decline.
The veteran WR is owed $10 million next season, though Seattle has a potential out this summer. If this is Lockett’s last game as a Seahawk, maybe they funnel him a few looks for a touchdown, but that’s about as flimsy of a case as you could possibly make.
Lockett hasn’t averaged over a yard per route since Week 9 and hasn’t cleared 10 expected PPR points since Week 6.
Los Angeles Rams Week 18 Start-Sit Advice
Jimmy Garoppolo, QB
We haven’t seen much of Jimmy Garoppolo since his time with the 49ers, but the snapshot that we got last year with the Raiders wasn’t exactly encouraging if you’re hoping to mine value in a spot start.
Through 17 weeks, the Seahawks ranked fourth in pressure rate and 20th in blitz rate. They excel at speeding up opponents without having to allocate additional resources, and that’s enough to have me looking just about anywhere else.
Garoppolo was a mess when feeling the heat in 2023. The NFL average is a 48.8% completion percentage and a 1.5 TD/INT rate when pressured. Last season, Garoppolo was 16-of-41 (39%) with zero touchdowns and five interceptions.
Add in the fact that he’ll be supported by a skeleton crew, and there’s no reason to go this direction with any level of optimism.
Matthew Stafford, QB
Updated at 2:55 ET on Sunday, January 5
Stafford is inactive for today's game.
Stafford won’t play as HC Sean McVay is giving him rest (Jimmy Garoppolo is starting in his place), but let’s look at this game as if he were playing.
The Rams hung 44 points on the Bills in a Week 14 upset victory and looked unstoppable in the process. Matthew Stafford averaged 10.7 yards per pass, Kyren Williams scored twice, and the healthy Rams were a force to be reckoned with.
The latter might still be true, but the fantasy numbers wouldn’t reflect it — this offense has scored just 44 points total in the three weeks since that masterpiece. Over that run, just one of Stafford’s 78 passes have resulted in a touchdown, a brutal stretch at the worst possible time for fantasy managers.
Would it have rebounded this week?
Stafford carved up the Patriots in New England in Week 11, but outside of that, his top four games have either come at home or against these Seahawks (Week 9: 298 passing yards with two scores). That performance against Seattle was even more impressive when you recall that he lost Puka Nacua to an early ejection, forcing him into distributing one-third of his targets to either Demarcus Robinson or Tyler Johnson that afternoon.
In theory, all of that sounds good, but I would have worried about this spot. Yes, he overcame this matchup two months ago, though that would have been just a snapshot as to what is most likely to happen. Throughout the 16-game sample of 2024, Stafford has told us that he doesn’t like pressure.
Whether it is that he’s been a tick slow on the fast read, he’s aborting plays a little early — whatever factor you want to blame it on, his rates when feeling the heat are a major concern against a top-five pressure unit in the league.
Matthew Stafford, pressure stats with Rams by season:
- 2021: 75.0 passer rating, 8.0 yards/attempt, and 5.8% TD rate
- 2022: 69.6 passer rating, 5.8 yards/attempt, and 2.7% TD rate
- 2023: 75.7 passer rating, 6.2 yards/attempt, and 5.8% TD rate
- 2024: 51.6 passer rating, 5.6 yards/attempt, and 1.4% TD rate
Stafford would have qualified as a viable play this weekend, but I would have been careful about blindly copy-pasting in his Week 9 numbers. This is a below-average team in pass rate over expectation and might be happy to play in the mud this weekend — it might work for them (I’ll be picking the Rams to win), but the risk would have been significant for those banking on Stafford.
Blake Corum, RB
Blake Corum gets his drive or two a game, and that’s cute. It’s also infuriating for those holding Kyren Williams’ bags, but that’s all it is. It’s just a wrinkle, not a feature.
The rookie has posted a sub-20% snap share in four consecutive games. That’s been the case for the bulk of the season, outside of an outlier Week 13 win against the Saints in which he was on the field for 32.7% of the Rams’ plays.
Corum has yet to clear eight touches in a game this year. While holding a handcuff was a logical strategy up to this point, you’re in a go-for-it mode now. You don’t need to cut ties with Corum, but if you’re trying to maximize the number of Flex options you have in a do-or-die situation, I’d much rather use that roster spot for a home-run-hitting receiver or a secondary RB where there are questions about the starter.
As things stand right now, we have no reason to think that Williams will see anything less than his standard workload this week, which means that Corum doesn’t project as a usable piece.
Kyren Williams, RB
Updated at 2:55 ET on Sunday, January 5
Williams is inactive for today's game.
Over the past 445 days, Kyren Williams has played in 23 regular season games; only once over that stretch did he finish a contest without either 20+ touches or a rushing touchdown.
He didn’t do much with a lot on the ground in the Week 9 meeting with the Seahawks (22 carries for 69 yards and no scores), but you take that volume and take your chances. The Seahawks are a below-average run defense in terms of yards allowed both before and after contact, making them vulnerable to high-volume backs.
Williams might not have a 20-yard run since Thanksgiving, but he’s one of the few who can volume his way past flaws. I’m generally against betting on a profile like this – that’s not the case here.
If Williams were playing this week, you would have been locking him in. For those looking ahead to 2025, I see no reason not to project another 1,100+ rushing yards and 14+ touchdowns next season.
Cooper Kupp, WR
Updated at 2:55 ET on Sunday, January 5
Kupp is inactive for today's game.
I’m not willing to say that Cooper Kupp and Father Time are in a battle, but these past three weeks have certainly poured gasoline on that topic.
- 67 routes
- 53 yards
- Nine targets
- Four catches
- Zero touchdowns
That’s brutal. His aDOT over that stretch (9.0) isn’t much different than his season rate (8.1), so that leads me to believe that there might be a health issue at play. Either that, random variance, or the most pronounced age cliff in recent memory.
I’ll sort out which of those buckets gets the most blame over the offseason. It will definitely be a situation to monitor moving forward.
Demarcus Robinson, WR
Over the past four weeks, Demarcus Robinson has run 89 routes and has not caught a single one of his five targets.
There is a time and a place for tertiary receivers in an offense with a pocket-locked quarterback. But like any good card player, you have to know when to fold’em — and that time was a month ago.
I’m usually late to the party on third options and early to cut bait. Does that burn me sometimes? Of course, but I’m happy to not swing at a bunch of randomness as opposed to banking on it sustaining.
Part of having success in fantasy sports is knowing yourself as a manager, which is the process that works for me. If you prefer to churn and burn roster spots, then a player like Robinson was likely on your roster at some point, but you need to be comfortable with aggressively cutting ties to avoid burning a roster spot.
Puka Nacua, WR
Updated at 2:55 ET on Sunday, January 5
Williams is inactive for today's game.
Puka Nacua has established himself as one of the best players in the game, and there is no debate about it. He was ejected early in the first meeting with the Seahawks – all he has done since is post a 142.4 catch pace.
We’ve seen the Rams ramp up their desire to get him the ball. Be it a recent surge in rushing attempts or an aDOT that is down 14.9% from his historic rookie season, it’s clear that Los Angeles is well aware that they have something special.
You’re starting him every week of every season for the foreseeable future – Nacua is going to cost you a first-round pick this summer, and the odds are good that he’ll be worth every penny.