The Seattle Seahawks were briefly a worst-to-first story this season, ripping off four straight wins to gain control of the NFC West lead.
However, back-to-back home losses against Super Bowl contenders in the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers crippled the Seahawks’ playoff hopes. The door isn’t closed on Seattle claiming the division, but the Seahawks need help despite their Week 17 win against the Chicago Bears.
Using PFN’s Playoff Predictor, we break down the scenarios needed for Seattle to take the NFC West.
What Is the Seattle Seahawks’ Current Playoff Picture?
The 9-7 Seahawks trail the 9-6 Los Angeles Rams in the NFC West. Those are the only two teams that can win the division, as the San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals were eliminated from playoff contention in Week 16.
The Rams won the first matchup between the teams in Seattle in Week 9. The rematch is in Los Angeles in Week 18, which is a must-win for the Seahawks. There is no path to the division title if they fail to win in Los Angeles.
However, that alone won’t be enough. Seattle needs at least one other scenario to go its way, and depending on how the Rams’ game unfolds in Week 17, the Seahawks may need to hit a very unlikely parlay.
Do the Seahawks Have Any Clinching Scenarios in Week 17?
No, but the Seahawks can be eliminated from playoff contention even after their win vs. the Chicago Bears in Week 17. If the Rams win and any combination of four of either Washington, Minnesota, San Francisco, Buffalo, Cincinnati, or Cleveland win, they will be eliminated.
- LAR win + at least 3.5 wins from WAS, MIN, SF, BUF, CIN, and CLE
It is complicated but relates to the strength of victory tiebreaker. In the event that the Seahawks and Rams both finish 10-7 (with Seattle beating Los Angeles in Week 18), they’ll be tied on each of the first four tiebreakers:
- Head-to-head: split 1-1
- Division Record: 4-2 each
- Common Games: 8-6 each
- Conference Record: 6-6 each
If that occurs, the next tiebreaker is strength of victory, in which the Rams have a significant edge in that category entering Week 17. Entering this week’s slate of games, the teams that Los Angeles has defeated have combined for 60 wins, compared to 51 combined wins for Seattle’s defeated opponents.
Thus, if that group of six teams combines for at least 3.5 wins in Week 17, the Rams will be guaranteed to finish with a higher strength of victory regardless of what happens in Week 18.
The Rams beat the Vikings and Buffalo Bills and swept the San Francisco 49ers. Meanwhile, the Seahawks lost to both Minnesota and Buffalo and went 1-1 vs. San Francisco). Therefore, those three teams winning helps LA’s strength of victory.
The Washington Commanders (vs. Atlanta Falcons), Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Denver Broncos), and Cleveland Browns (vs. Miami Dolphins) all face teams that the Seahawks beat but the Rams either lost to or didn’t face. So those three teams winning hurts the Seahawks’ strength of victory.
If at least four of those six teams win (or three wins plus one tie), Los Angeles will officially clinch strength of victory and eliminate Seattle before their Week 18 tilt kicks off.
Even if the Rams don’t clinch strength of victory this week, they have two full weeks to gain those 3.5 wins. So Los Angeles will almost certainly clinch the tiebreaker in Week 18 if it doesn’t this week.
How Does the Seahawks’ Week 17 Result Impact Their Playoff Scenarios?
It’s bizarre to say, but the Seahawks’ Thursday night game in Chicago doesn’t really impact their playoff fate very much.
The only benefit of the win is that it sustains Seattle’s very faint hopes of winning the strength of victory tiebreaker over LA. But as the above just outlined, it’s very unlikely that Seattle will win that tiebreaker no matter what.
Thus, Seattle’s season almost certainly boils down to a game out of its control. If the Cardinals can win at Los Angeles on Saturday night, then the Week 18 Seahawks-Rams game becomes winner-take-all. That’s because one of the scenarios would occur:
- Winner has the outright better record
- SEA wins and wins the division-record tiebreaker (4-2 vs. 3-3)
In other words, if the Cardinals beat the Rams, then the Seahawks have control of their own destiny.