If you’re looking for Week 4 XFL Seattle Sea Dragons vs. San Antonio Brahmas odds, picks, and predictions, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
Sea Dragons vs. Brahmas Week 4 Odds and Betting Lines
The following odds and betting lines for the Sea Dragons vs. Brahmas are as of Thursday, March 9, and come from DraftKings Sportsbook. Clearly, they’re subject to change. That said, barring an unforeseen injury to a significant starter, we should assume that these lines will remain largely intact.
- Point Spread: Sea Dragons (-4.5)
- Moneyline: Sea Dragons (-210), Brahmas (+180)
- Over/Under: 40.5 (-110)
Sea Dragons vs. Brahmas Picks and Predictions
My Week 3 XFL point spread and moneyline picks went a combined 6-2, continuing a pretty good run as we try to make sense of this re-engineered league. But my over/unders mostly tanked. So while I feel pretty bullish about the following point spread and moneyline predictions, I’d caution you to “wait and see” on the over/under.
In this Saturday night contest between two underrated 1-2 squads, Seattle should prevail by 7+ points. They were one of my two preseason favorites to win the title, thanks to an above-average running game and (arguably) the No. 1 pass attack.
MORE: 2023 XFL Standings | XFL TV Schedule
Despite losing two of their first three contests, the Sea Dragons still look like a championship-caliber squad. Ben DiNucci continues to lead all XFL quarterbacks in passing attempts, completions, and yards. No weekly starter comes close to his 69% completion rate (although newly minted starter Kyle Sloter looked solid last weekend).
Seattle’s receiving corps is as fearsome as ever. Josh Gordon’s miraculous TD reception didn’t exactly look pretty. But it reminded fans that even aged former NFL stars can shine at this level. He and teammate Jahcour Pearson are No. 2 and No. 1, respectively, in XFL receiving yards. Blake Jackson (No. 10) and Jordan Veasy (No. 13) aren’t far behind.
For perspective, none of these guys were expected to be league leaders, much less team leaders. Seattle’s first selection in the “offensive skills” portion of November’s draft was WR Kevin Shaa, who didn’t make it past the first round of team cuts in February. Then, they took little-used RB T.J. Hammonds (three touches per game) in the second round. Wide receiver Juwan Green (1.7 receptions per game) went in the third.
If you think it’s tough for prognosticators to predict XFL game and player outcomes, consider how tough it was for these teams to size up talent at the draft. Heck, Gordon wasn’t even drafted in the offensive skills portion. Instead, he dropped to the sixth round of January’s Supplemental Draft.
The opposing Brahmas have a strong defense. Although their only win was against the lowly Guardians, they held the high-flying Battlehawks to 18 points and the even higher-flying Roughnecks to 22. San Antonio also has a strong pass rush (including an impressive nine sacks), but only one interception versus starting quarterbacks (i.e. I’m excluding their pick of overmatched third-stringer Deondre Francois).
But against opposing running backs, the Brahmas have yielded 232 rushing yards on 50 carries (4.6 ypc). Seattle has a relatively deep backfield, with Brenden Knox (when healthy) and my favorite Week 3 underdog RB, Morgan Ellison. These two have combined for 44 rushes and 216 yards (4.9 ypc), while Ellison and Hammonds have combined for 13 receptions and 56 receiving yards.
Simply put, the Sea Dragons will be tough to stop, because they can beat you through the air and also wear you down on the ground.
Meanwhile, San Antonio’s offensive hopes continue to rest on Jack Coan, Kalen Ballage, Jacques Patrick, Alize Mack, and the hobbled Jalen Tolliver. On a good night, T.J. Vasher and/or Deon Yelder might make some noise.
However, for the fourth straight week, I’m sounding the alarm on Ballage. I’m not certain why the Brahmas continue to lean on him over Patrick, who they drafted No. 3 overall in November. Certainly, they know what they’re doing. And yet, Ballage has not elevated this offense with a meek 46-142-0 rushing line (3.1 ypc) and 2.6 yards per reception.
A lack of backfield dynamism has put too much on Coan, who’s better suited as a game manager than as the spark of an offensive juggernaut. Yes, Coan and his receivers have proven they’re capable of engineering chunk yardage. But their more muted offense (compared to the Sea Dragons) probably will doom them once again.
- Recommended Point-Spread Bet: Sea Dragons (-4.5)
- Recommended Moneyline Bet: Sea Dragons (-210)
- Over/Under: Over 40.5 (-110)