We’re back to playing NFL football on Saturdays, which means we’re in the final weeks of the season. Today, the Kansas City Chiefs will host the Houston Texans at 1 PM ET, and then at 4:30 PM ET, the Baltimore Ravens will host the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the games today.
Looking for more lineup advice to get you ready for Sunday? Head over to our Week 16 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Lamar Jackson, QB
Lamar Jackson earned his fourth “A” by way of our QB+ grading system, tying him for the most such games in a season on file (since 2019). I’m running low on superlatives when it comes to the reigning MVP …
- 10 games with 45+ rushing yards
- 5 games with 3+ touchdown passes
- Career-high 68.1% completion percentage
The Steelers have held the Ravens to under 20 points in eight straight games, but sportsbooks are penciling them in for 25. If that comes through, I like Jackson’s chances of giving us top-five QB production.
Patrick Mahomes II, QB
Before the injury, Patrick Mahomes II was just 3-of-8 against the blitz against the Browns (37.5% completion rate, his worst game of the season with at least five passes thrown in such spots). The Chiefs have their eye on the playoffs, so I’m not expecting an aggressive version of Mahomes should he suit up this week, leaving me in a position to recommend you plan around a different option if you’d otherwise look Mahomes’ way.
The box score could have looked a little better last week if a sideways pass is ruled to be forward, but such is life in this low-octane attack. Mahomes is a player that no team wants to face in the postseason and no fantasy team wants to play right now.
I’m plugging in Matthew Stafford and Sam Darnold well ahead of him right now and not thinking twice about it, even if he’s fully cleared.
C.J. Stroud, QB
C.J. Stroud’s passer rating when throwing deep is 42 points lower this season than last. I hoped that early-season trends like this were the result of Nico Collins’ injury, but the second-year QB is struggling to make the plays he consistently gave us last season.
This feels like a grind-it-out game where the running backs are heavily featured and the passing game lacks volume. Stroud hasn’t ranked better than QB14 in a game since September, a trend I don’t see changing in Week 16.
Russell Wilson, QB
In Weeks 14-15, Russell Wilson is averaging 9.9 yards per completion, a stretch in which George Pickens has been sidelined. Before his WR1’s injury, his average stood at 13.2.
I really do think it might be as simple as Pickens’ status (hamstring, DNP on Tuesday) when it comes to evaluating Wilson. In Week 11, we saw him fail in this matchup even with his top receiver at his disposal (205 passing yards with zero scores), a stat line that is certainly at risk of being repeated.
If Pickens clears all hurdles in advance of Saturday, Wilson will slide inside of my top 15 — but even in that instance, he’s not a must-start (I’ll have Bo Nix and Brock Purdy ranked ahead of him regardless).
Najee Harris, RB
The Ravens and Steelers play slug fests, and that is the type of ugly game that can work in Najee Harris’ favor in terms of raw volume. He didn’t have much success running the ball in the first meeting (18 carries for 63 yards), and that’s to be expected against the second-best run defense in terms of success rate. However, he was able to get home with seven PPR points as a pass catcher.
I worry that the role in the passing game can be fleeting (one target over the past two weeks), but those concerns are lessened if George Pickens is back and threatening this vulnerable secondary deep down the field.
Jaylen Warren has yet to see his role expand in a prohibitive way, so I think you can feel fine about letting it ride with Harris as an RB2.
Derrick Henry, RB
Derrick Henry was scripted out of last week’s win, but in the opposite direction as you’d expect.
Usually, when “game scripted” is cited within a Henry write-up in the past, it’s been detailing a fall-beyond spot where the passing game is prioritized. Sunday’s bludgeoning of the Giants meant eight carries for Rasheen Ali and thus not a full workload for their bellcow.
In looking forward, I’m not at all concerned about the down Week 15 performance. The Steelers are an elite unit, but they do cough up rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs at the 10th-highest rate.
Henry is the best bet to run for 100 yards and score weekly — this week is no different.
Justice Hill, RB
Justice Hill has at least four catches or a rushing score in four straight games. He doesn’t have more than 10 touches in a game this season, so let’s not get crazy, but having him rostered in an in-case-of-emergency role makes a lot of sense.
I’d rather play him and his locked-in 6-8 touches than throw the dart on a receiver I don’t truly think has much of a path to opportunities (I’m thinking the Tyler Locketts and Alec Pierces of the world).
Hill saw a team-high seven targets in the Week 11 game in Pittsburgh. If this game is as nip and tuck as the industry is projecting, his versatility could again prove valuable.
Kareem Hunt, RB
I find it unlikely that you start Kareem Hunt moving forward, but the idea of stashing him is at least viable. He and Isiah Pacheco split 26 carries down the middle last week in Cleveland, and if Patrick Mahomes misses time, this offense could shift to a high-rush-rate unit to finish out their chase for the AFC’s top overall seed.
There’s not much of a path for Hunt to usurp Pacheco; if Mahomes does sit, he takes some scoring equity with him, and that’s why Hunt won’t grace my top 30 this week.
Joe Mixon, RB
Joe Mixon has had a great season, and that is why the fantasy industry held its collective breath as he suffered an ankle injury last week.
Fortunately, he made a quick return to action and, on Monday, DeMeco Ryans doubled down on the health of his star running back, saying that there was nothing to worry about.
Good enough for me.
Mixon has a rushing touchdown or at least five targets in all 11 of his games this season. The Chiefs’ run defense is no joke (fifth best in rush success rate while allowing the second-fewest yards per carry after contact to running backs), but Houston is favored in this spot and should dictate the script.
I’m penciling in for Mixon with as many touches as any running back this week and feel fine in doing so. He deserves to be locked in as a RB1 in all formats, even against a strong front.
Isiah Pacheco, RB
Might Isiah Pacheco’s ability to prove his health be the determining factor in Kansas City earning the No. 1 seed? It’s possible. Patrick Mahomes seems to be iffy and, regardless of his status, this team is likely to count more on its bellcow as he rounds into midseason form.
The Texans own the fifth-worst red-zone defense in the NFL, thus giving them a chance to bail you out with a score (or two?) if his efficiency continues to lag (3.9 yards per carry this season). I have zero reservations about considering the angriest running back in the league as a solid RB2 across the board.
Jaylen Warren, RB
In the Week 11 meeting with the Ravens, Jaylen Warren got his hands on the ball 13 times (68 yards). Could we see something like that this weekend, thus justifying a Flex ranking?
I’m not ruling it out, but we really don’t have much in the way of positive trends outside of that previous meeting. We know the touch count isn’t going to overwhelm as long as Najee Harris is active, and without scoring equity (one touchdown on 119 touches this season), there’s more risk than I’m willing to take on in what is traditionally a very low-scoring game.
I’d rather roll the dice on either back in Jacksonville or Tampa Bay, understanding that those committee situations have an unclear hierarchy and thus I can fall into a 15+ touch player.
Rashod Bateman, WR
I don’t think I need to sell or persuade you on Rashod Bateman; you know exactly what you’re signing up for. For his career, Bateman’s average TD reception length is 30.5 yards, and if you’re considering him, you’re very much relying on that double-digit point play.
Bateman has scored seven times this season, but six have come against awfully vulnerable defenses (Giants, Bengals, Buccaneers, and Cowboys). You can isolate the 40-yard score against the Chargers if you want and use that as ammo for Flexing him in a tough spot, but let’s not lose track of the fact that he had one catch for three yards in that game outside of the broken coverage.
Is that level of downside something you’re willing to take on?
Hollywood Brown, WR
NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported over the weekend that Hollywood Brown would be “likely to return during the regular season” from his SC joint injury that has delayed his debut with the team up to this point.
That’s interesting but unlikely to be impactful for our purposes. That’s not to say that he can’t be of service during Kansas City’s pursuit of a third straight championship, but asking the team to overextend him in short order is far too optimistic for my liking.
As a player, Brown carries an obvious upside. I mean, would they let him change his name to “Hollywood” if he didn’t? He caught at least six touchdown passes in all three of his seasons with the Ravens, and while his time with the Cardinals wasn’t fantasy-friendly, he did clear 16 PPR points in three of his first five games.
All of that said, I don’t think we can assume that he fits this offense like a glove before we get a proof of concept. Brown’s production relative to expectation has declined each season of his career; my feeling here is that any usage over the next three weeks will be more of a tune-up than a full reveal.
Brown’s production relative to PPR expectation by season:
- 2019 (Ravens): +19%
- 2020 (Ravens): +6.2%
- 2021 (Ravens): -9.2%
- 2022 (Cardinals): -12.2%
- 2023 (Cardinals): -21.9%
Nico Collins, WR
It’s awfully hard to provide viable fantasy numbers in a game where your offense fails to reach 200 total yards, holds the ball for under 27 minutes, and averaged 5.0 yards per pass.
It’s also awfully hard to find many receivers as talented as Nico Collins.
Last week was a mess against the Dolphins, and yet, Collins found paydirt twice, allowing him to post WR2 (or better) numbers for the seventh time in nine games.
It’s fine to fear the Chiefs’ defense. They’re about as good as it gets, but not to the point where you’re considering doing something crazy.
Even in the midst of a great season, Kansas City’s defense has allowed 17+ PPR points to an opposing WR1 five times this season (Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Drake London, Ladd McConkey, and Jakobi Meyers).
Say what you will about C.J. Stroud and his production this season — he’s better than the majority of quarterbacks who fueled the production of those WR1s in this same matchup.
Tank Dell, WR
Tank Dell was remarkable as a rookie, but he’s underwhelmed as a second-year player.
After posting production that was 22% over PPR expectations, Dell sits at 10.6% below what we’d pencil in given his specific usage. Such a dip in quality of target can be overcome by sheer quantity, but that’s not the situation we find ourselves in with this undersized asset (17.5% on-field target share this year after delivering a 23.4% rate in 2023).
Dell has one top-30 finish on his 2024 résumé, and now, with your season on the line, you’d be betting on him to double that total against a defense that ranks second in yards allowed per receiver target.
Dell is an explosive player who is capable of making a play against anyone. Yet, you’re reading this article with the intent to be informed as to which way the numbers are trending and projecting. In that regard, it would be close to irresponsible to play Dell at Arrowhead.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR
If you’re of a certain age, the name “DeAndre Hopkins” holds theoretical value, but that’s about it for the fantasy playoffs.
Patrick Mahomes has been under center for the past two weeks and yet Hopkins has turned 15 targets into just 78 yards, a level of efficiency that is troubling on many levels. The raw volume is good to see (one target every 3.3 routes in those two games), but if that falls off the table, a truly low floor — with Mahomes active — presents itself.
Without Mahomes?
The fact is, we don’t know what “without Mahomes” looks like. What we do know is that this team wasn’t relying on its passing attack to put it in position for the AFC’s top seed with one of the best QBs in the history of the earth on the roster … is Andy Reid just waiting for Carson Wentz to unleash things?
I doubt it.
I didn’t think we’d be looking at playoff decisions where I’d pick Jalen McMillan over Hopkins, but that’s where I’m at.
George Pickens, WR
George Pickens (Grade 2 hamstring injury) missed the first game of his career in Week 13, and his absence extended through last weekend.
The upside is no secret (six finishes as a WR2 or better), but we can’t let that distract you from three finishes outside of the top 55 receivers, a floor that is at an increased risk of impacting Week 15 if a compromised version of him is trying to play.
Generally speaking, I love the way this Russell Wilson-led offense looks for Pickens. With the veteran calling the shots, Pittsburgh’s WR1 has produced 17.2% over expectations and has eight end-zone targets in six games.
There are various injuries peppering the board this week, many of which I’m happy to avoid altogether — this is not one of those spots. Back in Week 11 when these teams first met, Pickens finished with an 8-89-0 line and earned 37.5% of the targets.
We’ve seen him kill AFC North foes in the past (past 12 divisional games: 41.5% production over expectation), and I’m going to be making excuses to play him if we get anything close to optimism as kickoff nears.
Stay tuned.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR
JuJu Smith-Schuster has been hovering in the 50-57% snap share rate for a month now, and although he got into the end zone last week, this is lining up for a player who will be more impactful as Kansas City tries to navigate a third straight postseason than anything of use to us.
Since returning from injury, Smith-Schuster’s 109 routes have yielded just nine targets and 62 yards. My lack of interest in his profile has nothing to do with Patrick Mahomes’ injury — this isn’t a player you need to roster in any format.
Mike Williams, WR
I can’t imagine a better run out for Mike Williams in Pittsburgh. He made a big play in his debut with the team to showcase his raw ability and then had some time to acclimate before George Pickens went down with an injury.
With a month to get used to the system, Williams would surely smash with his ideal role opening up in an offense that features deep balls just often enough to keep defenses honest.
Right? Wrong.
Williams’ weekly snap shares with Pittsburgh:
- Week 11 vs. Baltimore Ravens: 31.1%
- Week 12 at Cleveland Browns: 28.4%
- Week 13 at Cincinnati Bengals: 24.2%
- Week 14 vs. Cleveland Browns: 27.4%
- Week 15 at Philadelphia Eagles: 36.6%
In Pickens’ absence, Williams has managed to turn six targets into just 51 scoreless yards. Even without their alpha receiver and a passing script, Williams finished Week 15 with a sub-10% target share.
Pittsburgh’s offense simply isn’t built for Williams, and that’s become obvious. Pickens will absorb all of the deep looks when active, and when he’s not, the Steelers’ offense goes into a shell (I’m going to keep betting unders on Russell Wilson’s longest completion until we get a fully healthy Pickens). They had a 31-yard pass play last week, but it required a flea-flicker that was lucky to be caught.
Maybe Williams makes a play during a tight postseason game. Nothing would surprise me with Mike Tomlin, but holding onto Williams at this point in the fantasy season is asking for too much.
Xavier Worthy, WR
The trajectory of Xavier Worthy is exactly what you’d want, but the Patrick Mahomes injury obviously complicates things for a receiver who wasn’t consistent in the first place. If we are to assume that QB1 sits, I don’t think you can justify going this way with any level of confidence (he’s yet to score 12 PPR points in consecutive games and has five performances where he gave you under six points).
Asking him to produce in a tough team spot against the defense that owns the lowest opponent passer rating is a bridge I’m not willing to cross.
For those of you who are reading this despite being dead in your playoff league, thank you! When looking forward, Worthy has four straight games with double-digit expected PPR points, and that’s one more than he had through the first 11 weeks of his career. Rookie receivers often require patience. You’ll be just fine to go into 2025 with confidence in the Worthy profile, potentially at a discount if your leaguemates are just looking at raw numbers.
Mark Andrews, TE
On Sunday, Mark Andrews became Baltimore’s all-time leader in touchdowns. After that reception, his touchdown rate for the season stood at 18.2% (career prior: 10.5%). If we had numbers like this mid-season, I’d be preaching caution, but at this point, you don’t care about long-term concerns — you’re looking to survive this week.
The role isn’t stable. Over his past six games, Andrews has caught at least five passes three times and failed to reach three grabs three times. One of those duds came in this exact matchup, downside that you need to be aware of (Week 11 at PIT: 22 yards on a 9.7% target share).
That said, Lamar Jackson has completed 90.9% of his red-zone passes when targeting Andrews and 69.2% when throwing to someone else.
Zay Flowers, WR
Zay Flowers is exactly the type of profile I’m comfortable losing with.
Now, that might not seem like the most ringing endorsement, but that’s not the case at all. I’m going to be higher on him this summer than the industry as a whole.
What’s not to like? He runs highly efficient routes with a creative offensive mind at the controls that wants to involve him and is directing the league’s third-highest scoring offense. I’m taking that every time.
The results haven’t been ideal (Flowers hasn’t been a top-30 receiver since his massive Week 9), and he was held to just two catches in the first meeting with these Steelers, but I’m betting on this profile 17 times a year and letting the chips fall where they may (targeted on three of Lamar Jackson’s first four passes in Week 15).
He’s Khalil Shakir with more pedigree. Either Flowers or Shakir (if not both) have finished 12 of 15 weeks as a top-25 receiver. It wouldn’t shock me in the slightest if either parlayed that level of success into tremendous value next season if they can put it all together.
I prefer Flowers to Shakir from a talent standpoint, and that’s where I’ll land next season. As for this week, I’m sticking to the process and playing both without a second thought.
Pat Freiermuth, TE
Pat Freiermuth has scored in three straight games, the first Steelers tight end to do that since Heath Miller opened the 2012 campaign with three in a row. The touchdowns are buoying a profile that is otherwise underwhelming.
We are pretty comfortable in labeling the Bengals as one of the worst defenses in the NFL. If you remove that contest, Patty Football is averaging 29.8 receiving yards and 2.8 catches per game since Week 8.
That’s walking a very fine line, especially if the Steelers welcome George Pickens back this week. Freiermuth saw a pair of end-zone targets in Sunday’s loss to the Eagles, bringing his season total up to two.
The recent fantasy points totals look better than the stat sheet suggests is wise to project. The Ravens are vulnerable through the air, but they are a top-10 defense in terms of YAC allowed, giving a player like Freiermuth one less path to making an impact.
Freiermuth currently is on the outside looking in at my top 12 at the position.
Travis Kelce, TE
By normal human standards, a 100-catch pace with TE1 production in nearly 40% of games would be plenty, but Travis Kelce isn’t held to “normal human standards.” Expectations aside, we are in the much feared turn-into-a-pumpkin zone.
- 2023: Six straight scoreless games to end the regular season
- 2022: Six straight scoreless games to end the regular season
Kelce scored twice in Week 15 of 2021 against the Chargers — he hasn’t caught a touchdown in December since. I know that because I’m a fantasy nerd. I doubt the Chiefs are aware of that fact because it hasn’t mattered in the least. It hasn’t stopped them from accomplishing their ultimate goal, and until this “ramp down to ramp up” thing fails, why would we expect it to change?
If Kelce were a receiver, we wouldn’t have an issue in benching him. The reason he is still in consideration is two-fold — it’s his résumé and the lack of reliable depth at the position.
I’ve got seven tight ends in the must-start bucket for this week and another eight in the next range that can be shuffled up in any order. Kelce is firmly in that second bucket, and if we are to assume that Patrick Mahomes sits, he shifts closer to the back end of that tier than the middle.
Isaiah Likely, TE
Isaiah Likely played 66.1% of Baltimore’s offensive snaps last week, his highest rate since Week 8. That’s a step forward, but not one that is enough for him to rank as a viable option this week.
If you’re grasping for straws, Likely proved to be a tough cover the last time these two teams met (five targets and 75 yards on 19 routes in Week 11). That’s not nothing, but with essentially all of the red-zone usage non-negotiable at this point (Derrick Henry is the king, but Mark Andrews has established himself there at a high rate as well), Likely’s profile is too thin for my liking.
I have the Ravens winning this game, and in their past three victories, their TE2 has earned just three looks on 32 routes.
Dalton Schultz, TE
Counting on C.J. Stroud has been more of a battle this season than any of us suspected during the preseason and an ancillary piece like Dalton Schultz is the first to see his stock tank.
Schultz has as many top-20 finishes on his 2024 résumé as Tommy Tremble and fewer than Austin Hooper. You’re not considering either of those names this week, so why treat Houston’s TE1 any differently? With under 35 receiving yards in 11 of 14 games this season, there just isn’t enough of a role available in an offense that isn’t as explosive as we had hoped.
Tucker Kraft’s current profile is what we had penciled in for Schultz this year.
The Pittsburgh Steelers will face the Baltimore Ravens in Week 16. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Steelers skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
