Saquon Barkley was a star in Pennsylvania as a prep and has given the state a shot in the arm this year after spending his first six seasons with the New York Giants.
You’re aware that he ran for 2,000 yards during the regular season and that he has as many touchdowns this postseason as Philadelphia’s opponents (five), but considering that D’Andre Swift and Miles Sanders also had career years behind this offensive line, how much weight should we really give Barkley in terms of this team chasing their ceiling?
As it turns out, a lot – maybe even more than you assume.
Saquon Barkley: What Hasn’t Changed in Philadelphia
Before I dive into the positive impact, it should be noted that this was a pretty advantageous situation in the first place.
Over the two seasons before Barkley came to town, no team had more regular season wins than the Eagles (35), and they were easily the top offense in terms of rush EPA. They made a trip to the Super Bowl and saw their franchise quarterback develop an 83.4 average QB+ in those two seasons, up from 79.7 in his first qualified season of 2021.
Even a once-over on the team-based stats would suggest that the 2024 version of this team isn’t very different on the surface, outside of generating more excitement.
Eagles’ Points Scored per Drive:
- 2022: 2.63
- 2023: 2.23
- 2024: 2.56
Eagles’ Yards per Play:
- 2022: 5.8
- 2023: 5.4
- 2024: 5.7
Eagles’ Average Drive Distance:
- 2022: 35.8 yards
- 2023: 33.4 yards
- 2024: 33.3 yards
Eagles’ Red-Zone Efficiency:
- 2022: 68%
- 2023: 59.7%
- 2024: 58%
Yes, there are ways in which this talented team is similar, but when looking to improve a contender, as opposed to rebuilding a disaster, you’re looking to improve around the edges, and that is where Barkley’s impact has been felt the most.
Barkley: What Has Changed in Philadelphia
If you’ve watched 10 minutes of playoff football or 18 seconds of Philadelphia having the ball in the NFC Title game, you’re well aware of the game-breaking potential that Barkley threatens defenses with.
SAQUON ARE YOU KIDDING ME?!
📺: #WASvsPHI on FOX
📱: Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/26534Ls9Mx— NFL (@NFL) January 26, 2025
Eagles’ Runs of 50+ Yards:
- 2022: 0
- 2023: 0
- 2024: 10 (and counting)
Those splash plays are evident and obviously impact winning at a high level, but the gravity created by the threat of such a spurt is a little less clear. Worrying about defending a player like Barkley is taxing. It requires pushing all the right buttons and staying disciplined for 60 straight minutes, much like peak Barry Sanders did. Sometimes, a defensive lapse results directly in a highlight run, but not always.
Eagles’ Deep Touchdown Pass Rate:
- 2022: 2.5%
- 2023: 2.8%
- 2024: 4.0%
That doesn’t happen by accident. Nor does the fact that opponents fatigue, in some form or fashion, over time. All professional sports, at some level, are a game of inches, so the ability to wear down your opposition is an important trait that championship-level teams almost always have.
Eagles’ Average Second-Half Point Differential:
- 2022: +0.6
- 2023: -0.1
- 2024: +6.3
You read that right – the Eagles have been nearly a touchdown better than the opposition in second halves this season. That’s the fifth-best mark over the past decade.
It is the driving force behind why the city of Philadelphia feels they have a better chance to win this Super Bowl than the initial matchup at the end of the 2022 season (that season, the Chiefs were, on average, nearly two full points per game better than the Eagles in second halves—they won the final 30 minutes of the Super Bowl by 13 points).
Last but not least is the commitment to strategy. The 2024 Eagles rank first in rush rate over expectation, and it’s working at the highest level. They ranked 23rd in that metric back in 2022, and in the simplest form of analysis, it was because they knew they didn’t have a game-breaker in their running back room.
They do now, and they will not stop giving him a chance to swing the game, no matter the score.
Eagles’ Win Percentage in Games in Which They Trailed:
- 2022: 60%
- 2023: 50%
- 2024: 75%
The Chiefs aren’t the high-octane team we saw in the early years of the Patrick Mahomes era, and that means that scripting the Eagles away from Barkley is highly unlikely. We won’t know until Feb. 9 if luring him away from New York this offseason ends with ultimate glory, but the move felt seismic at the time, and it gives Philadelphia a very real shot at derailing an attempt at history.