As the NFL season approaches, millions of people are turning their attention to fantasy football. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are Saquon Barkley’s fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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Saquon Barkley’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
This should be a no-brainer. Except it isn’t. It never is with running backs — no matter how dominant — possessing Barkley’s injury history.
In three of five seasons, Barkley arguably has matched or exceeded pre-professional expectations. A former No. 2 overall pick, he was supposed to anchor the Giants’ backfield for years while serving as one of the top running backs in the game.
His career thus far has been bookended by two campaigns: his first, which resulted in Offensive Rookie of the Year honors, and his most recent, which resulted in a third-place showing for Comeback Player of the Year.
In between, he dominated in 13 contests in 2019, was knocked out for the season midway through the first half of Week 2 in 2020, and stumbled through a 2021 campaign in which he rarely looked remotely close to the player he once was.
That’s what makes last year so fascinating and also confounding for fantasy managers. Which Barkley will show up in 2023? Were the two preceding years simply blips on what will be a Hall of Fame career? Or is he one of the riskiest “great” fantasy RBs around, destined for more ups and downs in the coming years?
Last season was divided into three parts for Barkley. The first part ran through Week 10. The Giants went 7-2, with all of their victories coming by a touchdown or less. Their bell cow was an obvious MVP candidate, netting 931 rushing yards and six touchdowns on 198 attempts (4.7 yards per carry). He tacked on a 29-197-0 receiving line. This was vintage Barkley.
But in that Week 10 contest vs. Houston, he was handed the ball 35 times. Entering the season, it had been four years since he’d received more than 24 carries in a game. The 35 totes put him on pace for 374 regular-season carries. A playoff run would put him in the exclusive 400+ club, or even the more exclusive 425+ club.
There are costs to overworking running backs. Some can handle it better than others. But most face significant regressions the following year, and some show ill effects in the same year.
After that 35-carry performance — whether coincidentally or naturally — he struggled through his next four matchups. While the Giants went 0-3-1, Barkley rushed 53 times for 152 yards (2.9 ypc) while collecting only 4.9 yards per reception (compared to 6.8 in his first nine games).
The team wisely made adjustments during this stretch and beyond. After averaging 22.0 carries in his first nine outings, he netted only 12.8 in his final nine, including two postseason games.
That’s a dramatic shift. When an offensive centerpiece like Barkley goes from an uber-bell cow to a modestly used starter, it speaks volumes. Rather than continue to run him into the ground, New York reined him in. It might have saved his season, and it might have helped ensure the Giants had him when the games mattered most.
My theory is that this team intends to pick up where it left off, giving Barkley perhaps 12-15 carries and 3-4 targets per contest. Matt Breida, Gary Brightwell, and/or rookie Eric Gray will complement him with 6-8 total touches per game. Daniel Jones and his receivers will handle the rest.
As a result, we probably won’t see “elite” or even “near-elite” Barkley in 2023, at least not most weeks. He averaged a phenomenal 20.0 fantasy points through Week 10 last year. He averaged only 14.9 for the rest of the regular season.
I believe he’ll average closer to 14.9 than 20.0 in 2023 … much closer. The Giants are eyeing another playoff run. Barkley is a key piece of the puzzle. He’ll remain heavily involved but not involved enough to be a top-eight RB.
Should You Draft Saquon Barkley This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Barkley with an ADP of RB5. Our PFN Consensus Rankings place him at RB4.
Unfortunately for fantasy managers, Barkley probably won’t make it all the way down to RB12. In a league with so few true bell cows, Barkley has enough appeal to come off the board in the first round of 12-team, one-QB drafts. That’s too early for my tastes. But some people will pounce, believing that 2022 marks a new floor, not a new ceiling.
If you can land him in the second round, then it’s obviously essential to draft his most likely backup — or two backups if you have the bench space. Breida has the experience. Brightwell is an interesting option. Gray is the wild card with the highest ceiling.
There’s almost no realistic scenario where Barkley plays 17 games. And I’d put his over/under at 14.5. His usage last year (377 total touches) is at least marginally concerning, especially given his injury history. Managers should be prepared for the strong possibility that he misses at least two contests.