After a stellar rookie year, Saquon Barkley’s tenure with the New York Giants didn’t quite go as expected. Now begins the next phase of his career on the Philadelphia Eagles roster, can the once generational prospect return to the ranks of the elite fantasy football RB1s this year?
Should You Select Saquon Barkley at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 10th Overall (RB4)
- 2023 Recap: Barkley had another challenging season with the New York Giants, averaging just 3.9 yards per carry and 11.3 fantasy points per game. Despite a high opportunity share, his efficiency metrics were among the worst in the league, a reflection of the Giants’ struggling offense.
- Improved Situation: Moving to the Philadelphia Eagles provides Barkley with a significantly better offensive environment. The Eagles have scored far more touchdowns than the Giants over the past two seasons, boosting Barkley’s touchdown potential, though it will be capped by Jalen Hurts’ goal-line presence.
- Target Share Concerns: Barkley had a 15.3% target share last season, but that may decrease in Philadelphia’s offense, which allocated just a 10% target share to D’Andre Swift last year. A decrease in receiving work could limit Barkley’s upside.
- ADP Value: Barkley is currently being drafted as the RB4, 10th overall. While his move to the Eagles should improve his efficiency, the question remains whether he can justify such a high draft position given the limitations on his touchdown and receiving upside.
- Final Verdict: Barkley is a safer pick with a solid floor, but his elite RB1 upside is capped by the Eagles’ offensive structure. Fantasy managers should weigh the potential benefits against the risks when considering Barkley at his current ADP.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Saquon Barkley
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis.
8) Justin Jefferson, WR | Minnesota Vikings
9) A.J. Brown, WR | Philadelphia Eagles
10) Jahmyr Gibbs, RB | Detroit Lions
11) Garrett Wilson, WR | New York Jets
12) Jonathan Taylor, RB | Indianapolis Colts
13) Saquon Barkley, RB | Philadelphia Eagles
14) Puka Nacua, WR | Los Angeles Rams
15) Kyren Williams, RB | Los Angeles Rams
16) Marvin Harrison Jr., WR | Arizona Cardinals
17) Travis Etienne Jr., RB | Jacksonville Jaguars
18) Chris Olave, WR | New Orleans Saints
Barkley’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
The next perennial RB1 had arrived when Barkley averaged 24.0 fantasy points per game as a rookie in 2018…or so we thought.
It’s crazy to think Barkley is entering his seventh professional season. During his five remaining years with the Giants, he never came close to replicating what he was able to do as a rookie despite always checking the talent box.
Last year, Barkley’s opportunity share was second in the league. The issue — as it’s been during the entirety of the Daniel Jones era — was his situation.
In 14 games, Barkley touched the ball 288 times, averaging just 3.9 yards per carry. Although he saw a healthy 15.3% target share, his 1.1 yards per route run was just 27th among running backs. However, when he was used, he still produced much of the magic we have become used to.
#NYGiants QB Tommy DeVito drops a DIME to Saquon Barkley for SIX 😮💨
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 19, 2023
Oftentimes, offensive situation plays a significant role in a running back’s efficiency. My favorite example of this is when sub-replacement-level talent Alex Collins was top five in evaded tackles per touch, top 10 in yards created per touch, and second in percentage of carries to go for 15+ yards in 2017. His incredible efficiency was due entirely to Lamar Jackson.
I mention this to kind of make excuses for Barkley’s horrendous efficiency metrics in 2023. Even if we blame the offense, there’s no way to paint 2.94 yards created per touch (46th in the league) and a 14.6% evaded-tackles-per-touch rate (48th), into anything positive.
If we’re looking for positive signs, it’s hard to find a player who improved his offensive situation more than Barkley in going from the Giants to the Eagles.
Philadelphia has scored 46 and 57 touchdowns in each of the past two seasons, respectively. The Giants scored 25 and 38 in those same years. That alone is a boost to Barkley’s touchdown potential.
Of course, as we all know, he’s not going to be the primary goal-line back. Barkley will almost certainly see more looks near the goal line than D’Andre Swift did last season, but his TD upside will be capped by Jalen Hurts’ one-yard plunges. Last season alone, Hurts had a whopping 11 one-yard rushing scores.
Fantasy managers thinking of drafting Barkley can only consider what might be. If those carries were going to him, he would have an upside of overall RB1. But they won’t. As a result, Barkley’s touchdown upside probably caps out around 12-14.
There’s also the matter of Barkley’s target share, which was at 15.3% last season. Swift only saw a 10% target share in this offense a year ago, so it would be a surprise if Barkley even gets to 12%.
Is Barkley a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
The caliber of Philadelphia’s offense should improve Barkley’s efficiency, but rushing yards don’t make elite running backs — receptions and touchdowns do.
Even if we take Barkley’s 2023 volume and efficiency and tack on a full extra yard per carry, that would only add 1.7 points per game. Is around 17-18 ppg worth the RB5, No. 15 overall selection?
The early second round is a very tricky part of the draft. The running backs available are either safe but with questionable upside (Barkley, Jonathan Taylor), or have serious upside but aren’t very safe (Kyren Williams, De’Von Achane).
At the same time, there are several good wide receivers that taking one over the others doesn’t feel like an edge. That could steer fantasy managers back toward Barkley.
Ultimately, it’s unlikely Barkley will fail. However, I don’t see an elite RB1 upside, given the way the Eagles’ offense functions.