New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley was finally able to put together a healthy season last year. Barkley quickly reminded everyone why he was pegged as a generational talent back in 2018. Now in the second year of Brian Daboll’s offense, can he be even better? What is Barkley’s fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season?
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Saquon Barkley’s Fantasy Outlook
You couldn’t have scripted Barkley’s NFL debut any better from a fantasy perspective. He burst onto the scene as a rookie in 2018 and averaged 24.0 PPR fantasy points per game. Most seasons, that would be good enough for an overall RB1 finish, but Todd Gurley and Christian McCaffrey existed.
From that point forward, fantasy managers expected Barkley to be a mainstay at the top of the first round of fantasy drafts. Instead, injuries cost him three games in 2019 and resulted in his performance regressing to 18.8 ppg. That’s still very good, but not elite.
In 2020, Barkley tore his ACL in the second game of the season and then looked like a shell of his former self in 2021. His explosiveness was completely gone, and a fluke in-season ankle sprain only cemented that he wouldn’t be returning to pre-injury levels that season. Barkley averaged 11.4 ppg, finishing outside the top-24 running backs.
The 2022 season was make-or-break for Barkley. Either his explosiveness returned in his second year removed from his ACL tear, or he simply wasn’t going to ever be good again.
Fortunately, Barkley’s explosiveness did return. While he still hasn’t come close what he did as a rookie, Barkley was able to put together a healthy season in 2022, averaging 17.8 ppg, good for an RB5 finish.
In an era of committees and timeshares, Barkley was treated as a true three-down back. He finished second in RB snap share and third in opportunity share.
Barkley also saw a 17.2% target share, fifth-most in the league. The run-heavy nature of the Giants’ offense limited Barkley to 57 receptions, but New York’s lack of quality receiving options should keep Barkley as a feature part of this admittedly low-volume passing attack.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Barkley at His ADP?
Last season, what we needed to see from Barkley was health and the return of his athleticism. We got both. That’s far more important to me than the fact that he wasn’t able to produce fantasy numbers like he did in 2018. Why? Because I think that’s still possible.
As a team, the Giants overperformed last season. Let’s not pretend like this was actually a particularly good offense. They have a ton of room to grow, which is why I view what Barkley did last season as close to his floor.
If New York throws a little more than the 30.6 times per game last season, Barkley’s target volume should go up. If the Giants can improve upon just 38 total touchdowns last season, some of that should be Barkley.
Last season, Barkley scored 10 touchdowns on 352 touches. In 2018, he had exactly 352 touches as well and scored 15 times. Assuming New York’s offense improves, or Barkley just has some positive touchdown variance, he could easily score 15+ touchdowns once again.
My projections have Barkley at 282 carries for 1,243 yards and 11.8 touchdowns, plus 58 receptions for 372 yards and 2.3 touchdowns through the air. That comes out to 17.8 ppg and an RB5 finish.
Barkley is currently going as the RB4, No. 9 overall. I have him ranked as my RB4.
Projections are not rankings. I believe my projections for Barkley are rather conservative. There’s certainly the potential for more volume and more touchdowns. In this new era of fantasy football where WRs are being pushed up draft boards, I’m perfectly fine taking Barkley in the first round at any point after the top three RBs are off the board.