How Close Was Saquon Barkley to Breaking the NFL Rushing Record? Comparing Eagles RB’s Year To Eric Dickerson’s Historic Season

Saquon Barkley’s debut season with the Philadelphia Eagles exceeded all reasonable expectations. Barkley came close to passing Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record set in 1984, but he sat out the final game of the season.

How close was Barkley to breaking the record? Did Barkley have a better season than Dickerson’s 1984 campaign? It’s not easy to compare eras, but let’s do our best to analyze two of the greatest running back seasons ever.

How Many Yards Does Saquon Barkley Need to Break Eric Dickerson’s Record?

Barkley needed 101 yards to break Dickerson’s 40-year-old mark of 2,105 yards. He averaged 125.3 yards per game this season, so breaking the record was certainly realistic (especially considering he already torched the New York Giants for 176 yards in three quarters earlier in the season).

Unfortunately, Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni decided to rest Barkley and his other stars in Week 18 against the Giants in order to prepare for the playoffs.

Barkley knew all about the record and how many yards he needed to break it.

“I know a lot about Eric Dickerson,” Barkley said. “I know that he has the record. He’s (had it) for 40 years. Obviously, I’ve heard the talk. I know the number.”

The single-season rushing record was a goal that Barkley and the Eagles’ offensive line set for themselves earlier this season. Barkley said he has studied Dickerson’s game and wants to mimic the former back.

“I feel like you want to be great, you’ve got to be able to study the greats and learn from them,” Barkley said. “So I try to focus, especially in my position, on the history of the position and learning the position and watching those guys and seeing the stuff that they were able to accomplish and as a competitor try to go out there and go get them.”

When asked about Sirianni’s decision to rest him and other key starters, Barkley agreed with his head coach.

“At the end of the day, the most important thing is winning football games and winning the playoffs,” Barkley said. “I got a big goal in mind…

“He’s the head coach for a reason. He makes those decisions and whatever decision he wanted to make, I let him know, ‘If you want me to play, I’m gonna go out there and make sure I get it. If we don’t, I’m okay with that too.'”

Barkley vs. Dickerson: Comparing The Numbers

First, it’s worth simply laying out the raw stats between 2024 Barkley and 1984 Dickerson. Obviously, advanced metrics such as yards over expected and yards after contact weren’t available in the ’80s, so we’ll stick to standard stats when comparing the two.

Barkley has the slight edge in scrimmage yards per game due to the increased value of running backs in the passing game compared to Dickerson’s era. While Dickerson has the slight edge in total volume per game, Barkley’s volume is extremely impressive given the more even distribution of running back touches in the present era.

Regardless, we can show how rare it is for both these players to handle a high level of volume while also being efficient. In the Super Bowl era, there have been 467 seasons where a player averaged at least 20 touches per game. Barkley has the 12th-highest yards per touch (6.0). Dickerson’s 1984 season ranks 49th on that list.

It’s not just because Barkley is more involved in the passing game, as he’s also averaging 5.8 yards per carry compared to 5.6 for Dickerson. Of course, Saquon’s usage as a legitimate receiving threat increases his lead in efficiency too, as he’s averaged 8.4 yards per catch compared to 6.6 for Dickerson.

Who Carried His Team More?

Player production isn’t just a product of the player’s talent. Coaching and supporting cast impact a player’s bottom-line statistics too, as Barkley can attest to based on his tenure with the Giants.

The 1984 Rams were a 10-6 squad, but their offense was heavily reliant on Dickerson. Los Angeles was only 12th in points per game even with Dickerson’s record-breaking season. Wide receiver Henry Ellard was First Team All-Pro, but as a punt returner (he led the Rams with 622 receiving yards, which only ranked 52nd in the NFL).

By contrast, the Eagles boast a pair of Pro-Bowl-level wide receivers in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, an above-average receiving tight end in Dallas Goedert, and one of the best short-yardage runners ever in Jalen Hurts. Not all those ingredients have been healthy this season, but the 2024 Eagles have more options beyond their superstar running back than the 1984 Rams did.

As a result, Dickerson accounted for 44.8% of the Rams’ total yards, while Barkley accounted for 38.4% of the Eagles’ total yards this year. Saquon had the highest share of any player in 2024, but Dickerson’s is the eighth-highest in the Super Bowl era. By contrast, Barkley’s share doesn’t crack the top-50.

Dickerson’s share is also impressive when you consider that his contributions came for a playoff team, something only two other players ahead of him on this list – 2003 Jamal Lewis and 1977 Walter Payton – can say.

Who Had the Better Era-Adjusted Rushing Season?

Barkley had the more efficient season, while Dickerson carried a heavier share of his team’s offensive workload. But comparing numbers across eras isn’t an apples-to-apples exercise, particularly given how much more prominent the passing game is today compared to when Dickerson played.

Z-scores are one way to control for this. In statistics, Z-scores measure how many standard deviations above or below a value is from the average. In this case, we can see whether Barkley or Dickerson was more impressive relative to their peers by:

• Gathering the rushing leader on every team in the Super Bowl era, then
• Calculating the Z-score for each season to see how Barkley and Dickerson compare to the other rushing leaders that season.

When we go through all that, we see just how tight things are between Barkley and Dickerson. Both are among the 13 best rushing seasons in the Super Bowl era, but Barkley holds the very slight edge over Dickerson with two weeks left.

Barkley more than doubled the average rushing leader, putting him roughly three standard deviations above the average rushing leader. And while Dickerson’s raw total is more impressive, the average rushing leader in 1984 ran for nearly 1,000 yards, bringing down Dickerson when you compare him to his peers that season.

As a result, Barkley came in with the eighth-best era-adjusted season in the Super Bowl era, while Dickerson is just behind at 13th. Interestingly, Barkley came in behind recent seasons from Derrick Henry (2020) and Jonathan Taylor (2021), who excelled in depressed rushing environments.

No matter how you slice it, Barkley’s season was one of the greatest rushing seasons ever, regardless of whether he catches Dickerson. Even though he fell short of the 40-year record, Barkley can claim that he was both more efficient and posted more impressive production relative to his era.

Dickerson gave Barkley his flowers toward the end of the season.

“I like him,” Dickerson said of Barkley. “But I tend to like big backs. He’s not a big back like I was. He’s elusive, he’s tough, he runs hard, he can catch the ball out of the backfield. I think he’s a great player.

“I always felt like he’d never reach his potential when he was in New York. You could take Emmitt Smith and put him in Cleveland, and he’d have never been the Emmitt Smith we know now. …  Even myself. If you’d have put me in Cincinnati on a bad team, I’d have never been that guy. Because these bad football teams with no blocking, I don’t care how great you are. If you don’t have the guys in front of you, you can’t do it.”

Eagles vs. Commanders Game Preview

• Location: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
• Time: 3 p.m. ET
• Date: Jan. 26, Sunday
• Channel: Fox/Fox Deportes

Now, Barkley is looking to lead the Eagles past Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders in the NFC Championship Game.

With one more win, Daniels can become the first rookie quarterback to start in the Super Bowl. Daniels will be the sixth rookie QB to start in the Conference Championship Round; the prior five went 0-5 and performed disastrously.

Including the playoffs, Daniels ranks first in EPA per dropback when blitzed (0.36). While still effective against standard pass rushes, his EPA per dropback drops to 0.10 (13th) in those situations.

During this playoff run, Daniels became the first rookie QB in NFL history to record 275 passing yards and 50 rushing yards in a playoff win, the first rookie to beat a No. 1 seed since Joe Flacco in 2008, and the third rookie QB to win two road playoff games (joining Flacco and Mark Sanchez).

Now, Daniels will face an Eagles defense that blitzes at the second-lowest rate of any team this season, including playoffs. During their two regular-season matchups, Daniels punished the Eagles’ blitz, producing an incredible 1.03 EPA (Expected Points Added) per dropback and 14.5 yards per attempt when blitzed.

Philadelphia only blitzed him on 14 of his 84 dropbacks (17%) in those games. Against their non-blitz pass rush, Daniels was far less effective, averaging a modest -0.02 EPA per dropback.

Barkley had significant success against Washington. In their two matchups, Barkley rushed for 451 yards and four touchdowns, averaging an impressive 5.4 yards per carry.

However, the Commanders found a way to limit Barkley in Week 16 after Jalen Hurts left the game in the first quarter, forcing Kenny Pickett to step in. Over the final three quarters, Barkley managed just 41 rushing yards on 22 attempts. Before Hurts’ injury, Barkley had been averaging over 7.7 yards per carry against Washington.

If Hurts is limited by his left leg injury, the Commanders could focus on loading up against Barkley to contain the Eagles’ rushing attack. By committing additional resources to stop Barkley, they might aim to force Hurts to rely more on his passing game, testing his mobility and effectiveness with the injury.

The Eagles have leaned heavily on Barkley and Hurts’ rushing abilities to generate offense in the playoffs. Through two games, 70.9% of their total yards have come on the ground.

The Commanders will play in the NFC Championship Game for the first time since 1991. Only the Browns, who last appeared in a Conference Championship Game in 1989, endured a longer drought.

Washington went 4-13 (.235) last year, marking the fourth-worst win percentage in the season prior to making a Conference Championship appearance, trailing only the 2017 Jaguars (0.188), 2006 Saints (0.188), and 1967 Oilers (0.214).

The Eagles lost two games in September and have lost one game since — at Washington in Week 16 after Hurts exited early with a concussion. In that loss, Philadelphia became the first team to score 21 points in the first quarter in a losing effort since the 2019 Texans (during the Divisional Round on the road against the Chiefs).

PFN’s Playoff Predictor gives the Eagles a 61.8% chance of winning this game while the Commanders have 38.2% odds.