The San Francisco 49ers‘ outlook talks about a Brock Purdy fantasy football bounce back, while the Washington Commanders‘ fantasy preview takes a look at the state of their offense with the change under center.
San Francisco 49ers at Washington Commanders
- Spread: 49ers -13.5
- Total: 49
- 49ers implied points: 31.3
- Commanders implied points: 17.8
Quarterbacks
Brock Purdy: As bad as Purdy was last week against the Ravens (0 TDs and four INTs), I have zero concerns. Of course, you surviving last week with Purdy active is unlikely, but if you’re in the tiny percentage of managers who pulled that off, you’re playing Purdy this week against easily the worst-scoring defense and not thinking twice about it.
The neck stinger that he suffered late in that upset loss to Baltimore isn’t expected to have any sort of lasting impact, and that puts Purdy in a spot to return top-five value at the position.
Since Halloween, he has four games with 3+ TD passes, and in this spot against a defense that sees nearly 65% of opponent TDs (seventh highest) come through the air, I’d be surprised if he didn’t add to that total in a bounce-back spot.
Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey: There’s a reason this man enters Week 17 with the second-shortest odds to win the NFL MVP. The 49ers got handled by the Ravens last week, and all McCaffrey did was finish with the second-most fantasy points at the position, his ninth top-five finish of the season.
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CMC was considered an option for the first overall pick in August, and he might be near unanimous in eight months when we are drafting for 2024. There isn’t a player with a better floor/ceiling combination; it really is that simple.
Brian Robinson Jr.: B-Rob injured his hamstring in Week 13’s blowout loss to the Dolphins and has yet to see action.
Washington is better off losing down the stretch, and with Robinson in the middle of his rookie deal, it’s hard to envision the Commanders giving him a meaningful workload — if they play him at all.
Robinson’s growth is something that has my attention in a reasonable way when it comes to looking forward. His yards-per-carry average is up nearly 7% from his encouraging rookie season, but it’s his role in the passing game that has me singing an optimistic tune. Per the Week 17 Cheat Sheet:
- 2022: 4.2% of touches were receptions
- 2023: 18.1% of touches have been receptions
If Washington can land one of the big-name QBs in the draft this year, Robinson could see his stock rise in a significant way as the featured back with added versatility in an offense set to improve in a major way.
It’s way too early, but this is a name I tentatively have circled for redraft leagues in 2024.
Antonio Gibson: Outside of a late carry to cash his over in rushing yards, Gibson’s Week 16 against the Jets was nondescript — 10 touches for 32 yards. He managed to cash in a short carry and that saved his fantasy managers, but it was a second consecutive week without much in the way of bankable usage with Robinson hurt.
His role in the passing game has been his calling card in the past, but with just two yards on his two targets, that role doesn’t seem as bulletproof as it once was. If Robinson is again sidelined, Gibson’s time on the field lands him in the Flex conversation, but you shouldn’t feel obligated to play him, even with Chris Rodriquez now on IR.
Chris Rodriguez Jr.: He scored a pair of touchdowns last week against the Jets and has proven to be the superior between-the-tackles option over Gibson with Robinson sidelined. An ankle injury took Rodriguez off the field in the final moments of Washington’s loss, so I have a hard time seeing him pushed much past the season-high 11 touches he got last week.
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The sixth-round rookie is a name to remember in the later stages of drafts next season, and he is a fine depth option for Week 17, but he’s not close to my Flex radar in this brutal matchup.
Wide Receivers
Deebo Samuel: On a positive note, Samuel saw a season-high 12 targets last week against the Ravens, but those looks resulted in just 6.7 fantasy points and left fantasy managers wanting more.
I would take pity on you for the unlucky performance, but this is what you signed up for — sporadic usage and production. “In sickness and in health,” you married yourself to this offense and have to ride and die with it.
- Previous two games: 19 targets and 95 receiving yards
- Two games before that: 13 targets and 265 receiving yards
Does that make much sense? No. Would I have been able to tell you that a month like that was likely to be a 49er if you presented it to be in the preseason? Yep!
Samuel deserves to be started this week with just as much confidence as he has been any week of the season. Trust the process and hope that the usage is an indicator for a big week in a perfect spot.
Brandon Aiyuk: He certainly looked the part last week (113 yards) as he posted his sixth 100-yard campaign of the season against the top yards-per-play defense in all the land.
He has scored or gained 30+ yards on a catch in seven of his past eight games. Much like Samuel, however, we are not talking about the most consistent of options. He was scoreless in six straight games before scoring in four straight and has now been held out of the end zone in three straight.
This offense is elite but only has one player that you know will be elite each week. Hopefully, you understood what investing in this team meant — it means that you’re playing your option and never thinking twice about it, no matter the matchup or the form.
They are all one big play away from providing you with matchup-altering numbers and the price of having access to that is some confusing trends.
Deal with it.
Terry McLaurin: The name value here is certainly higher than the production indicates is reasonable, and that’s always a dangerous way to conclude your season.
McLaurin has not been a top-40 receiver in five of his past six games, and his only touchdown over his past seven games didn’t come from the man who has thrown him the most passes over that stretch in Howell.
If you strip away the name, nothing in McLaurin’s profile points to an option you should feel even remotely comfortable starting.
He checks in as a middling WR3 for me this week, a spot in the ranks that means you have to weigh your other options and seriously consider benching a WR that you thought had star power.
Even with sporadic production for Chris Godwin, Zay Flowers, and Tyler Lockett this season, they are all receivers that I’d plug in ahead of McLaurin this weekend.
Curtis Samuel: For the first time this season, Samuel was handed the ball on multiple occasions last week, and he did see 5+ targets for a fourth straight game.
That usage is the sort of thing I’d love to see in late October, but at this point in the season, we have too much proof of downside that I’m not willing to invest.
Through 16 weeks, Samuel has as many top-30 finishes as he does weeks outside of the top 70 WRs — that’s not a risk/reward equation that I’m tempted to test in this spot.
Tight Ends
George Kittle: Things worked in Kittle’s favor last week, as the Ravens made a point of focusing on Samuel, thus allowing the tight end to record his third 100-yard performance of the season.
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We know the ceiling is nothing short of elite, and while the floor is terrifyingly low (four games under 20 yards this season), if you’re not comfortable in playing him against a defense that allows over 30 points per game, why did you draft him?
Should You Start Brock Purdy or Tua Tagovailoa?
If you caught any of the Week 16 disaster against the Ravens, you’re second-guessing Purdy’s status as a fantasy asset.
I get it.
But remember that one poor performance shouldn’t greatly change your opinion of any player. He was consistently a high-floor fantasy option with access to a strong ceiling thanks to the elite playmakers at his disposal prior to last week — he’s still that option. Tagovailoa hasn’t flashed a consistently elite ceiling, and in a brutal matchup, that would leave him on my bench in this specific situation.
Should You Start Terry McLaurin or Zay Flowers?
At this point in the fantasy season, I want to minimize the number of moving pieces when possible and that has me landing on Flowers. McLaurin’s target share has been inconsistent this season as it is, and now, with a new man under center, the pass rate over expectation doesn’t project as advantageous as it has been through 16 weeks.
Flowers is seeing his stock trend in the right direction, something we often see from rookie receivers. I like the Ravens to put points on the board this week, and if that script comes through, Flowers figures to be a part of the fun!
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