The San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals game Sunday afternoon has a different feel than it did just a few short weeks ago. The Cardinals are now the only undefeated team left in the NFL after Week 4, and the 49ers are starting a rookie for the first time in 2021. Can the rookie run and throw his team to a win over a Cardinals team that’s already beaten the Rams handily?
Arizona Cardinals offense vs. San Francisco 49ers defense
The Cardinals look practically unstoppable with Kyler Murray scurrying around in the backfield, creating plays out of structure. Arizona currently ranks sixth in DVOA and second in EPA/play. They also possess the fourth-highest overall success rate on offense.
Conversely, the 49ers’ defense hasn’t been outstanding, but as we know boys and girls, defensive performance is largely based on the opposing quarterback. The 49ers have already faced post-Week 1 Aaron Rodgers and Mr. Unlimited.
The 49ers rank 16th in DVOA and 18th in EPA/play and are almost entirely average between run and pass defense. Josh Norman’s return should help against the pass, but it’s been a weekly guess on who will be healthy for games.
Kyler Murray vs. 49ers defense
I’ve written in other previews that a few quarterbacks are so good that they’ll have the advantage over any defense they face. Kyler Murray is one of them. There might only be one or two better throwers of the football, but what he does with his legs changes everything.
The 49ers’ defense must be able to collapse the pocket while maintaining gap integrity, which is never as easy as it sounds. Murray’s lateral agility allows him to slice his way by defenders. The best way to thwart that is for San Francisco’s defensive interior to get pressure up the middle and stand tall with their hands up to put plaster over passing hallways.
Advantage: Cardinals
Cardinals weapons vs. 49ers defensive backs
I think Jaquiski Tartt and Jimmie Ward form one of the best safety duos in the NFL. Their versatility isn’t talked about enough in national circles. However, the 49ers have had their struggles in 2021 at cornerback. Emmanuel Moseley and Dre Kirkpatrick are the starters, with Dontae Johnson playing the nickel.
Nobody is covering Arizona’s weapons consistently. DeAndre Hopkins is arguably the best receiver in football. A.J. Green looks reinvigorated after looking like a 16-year-old who didn’t get the car he wanted for his birthday with the Bengals last season. Christian Kirk is performing at his highest level, and Rondale Moore is one of the tougher tackles in the sport.
Advantage: Cardinals
Cardinals offensive line vs. 49ers front seven
The Cardinals have run the ball well so far in 2021, and it’s surprisingly not been on the back of Murray as a rusher. The running backs have taken turns spitting out positive EPA games, while Murray has not yet had that same success as a runner.
That means that the Cardinals are mixing things up schematically, and the offensive line is moving bodies. Except they really aren’t.
According to Football Outsiders, their line yards are only middle of the pack. Their rushing success comes from Chase Edmonds being a really good football player. He’s grossly outperformed James Conner. In fact, he’s currently seventh in the league in DVOA and ninth in success rate as a runner.
The 49ers’ front of Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, and Javon Kinlaw is a nice trio. Although the Cardinals’ offensive line has vastly improved from last year, it’s still not necessarily good. I’ve been repeatedly told Fred Warner is playing poorly, but I didn’t see that in either of the Rams or Vikings games — outside of a missed tackle here and there.
Advantage: 49ers
Arizona Cardinals defense vs. San Francisco 49ers offense
Once again, the 49ers are running efficiently on offense despite receiving just average QB play. That’s a testament to Kyle Shanahan and the front office for bringing in receivers that can make plays with the ball in their hands.
The 49ers are currently a top-10 offense, ranking fifth in EPA/play and seventh in DVOA. They’ve been far better passing the ball than running in 2021, but something tells me having an uber-athletic quarterback can fix the rushing attack. What Trey Lance brings as a passer in his first start will be the difference.
But the single most shocking turn of events is the performance of Arizona’s defense so far this year. They’re a top-10 defense no matter how you look at them — that is if you’re not looking at the underwhelming depth chart.
The Cardinals rank fifth in EPA/play and sixth in DVOA. It doesn’t make sense, except that Byron Murphy has been an absolute difference-maker through Week 4. Unfortunately, Arizona’s defense will be without him in Week 5.
Trey Lance vs. Cardinals defense
On the surface, this looks like an easy stroll for a Cardinals defense that’s performed admirably so far. However, they’re missing their best playmaker at cornerback and could be missing more.
At the very least, they’re hopelessly banged up. Marco Wilson is questionable with a rib injury, and slot cornerback Antonio Hamilton has an ankle injury that has him questionable.
So, if there was ever a time for Lance to get his feet wet, this might be it. Arizona’s pass rush could be a problem, but it hasn’t looked as stout since Chandler Jones’s insane 5-sack performance against the Titans.
Lance looked uncomfortable last week. He simply hasn’t had the reps to feel comfortable with the speed of the game. In truth, dating back to high school, Lance hasn’t played a lot of football. Therefore, it’s probably going to look a bit awkward for a while. But once Lance starts to trust what he’s seeing, the sky truly is the limit for him.
Advantage: Cardinals (slightly)
49ers weapons vs. Cardinals defensive backs
Remember, these matchups are evaluated independent of quarterback play. So, this could really be a bloodbath. Losing George Kittle is massive, considering the best bet for Shanahan and Lance was heavier personnel sets forcing base defense and stacked boxes.
However, with Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Mohamed Sanu, and Trent Sherfield, San Francisco has more than enough talent to take advantage of the Cardinals’ DBs. Budda Baker could be a catalyst for Arizona if this game remains close.
Advantage: 49ers
49ers offensive line vs. Cardinals front seven
Just give me all of the Trent Williams vs. Chandler Jones. There is no individual matchup more enticing than that one in Week 5. With that one probably ending in a relative stalemate, it’ll be interesting to see if Jones spends more time on the left side of the defense than he normally does. Currently, it’s about a 3:1 split between the right and left sides.
The rest of the matchups appear to be a slight advantage for the 49ers. The Cardinals have struggled to get consistent pressure the past three weeks. Yet, with a rookie under center, I see that changing in Week 5. This is easily my favorite positional matchup because it’s the most talent-rich in this game.
Advantage: 49ers.
Betting line and game prediction
As of Saturday morning, the Cardinals are 5.5-point favorites against the 49ers. That seems a bit low considering how Lance looked in Week 4 action. Nevertheless, Arizona’s losses in the defensive backfield could make this a tricky bet.
However, the Cardinals are at home and are almost surely locked in against their second-straight divisional opponent.
Prediction: Cardinals 30, 49ers 20