The San Francisco 49ers could not have had a more perfect weekend last week, and now they head into Week 16 with the comfort blanket of knowing one mistake will not hurt them. With three weeks left, the 49ers know that two wins could well be enough to ensure they have a first-round bye locked up in their back pocket. However, a loss this week against the Baltimore Ravens will immediately remove some of that comfort.
49ers Playoff Chances | Week 16 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Dec. 24 at 7 a.m. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
After Week 16, the 49ers remain the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
Christmas Day Update
Eagles (11-4) defeated Giants (5-10)
Ravens (12-3) defeated 49ers (11-4)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the 49ers entering Week 16. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff bracket.
What Are the San Francisco 49ers’ Playoff Scenarios for the No. 1 Seed in the NFC?
The 49ers are in a nice position in terms of their playoff scenarios entering Week 16. Not only is their destiny entirely in their own control, but they can even afford to lose one game and still be in full control of their own destiny.
With the NFC West already locked up, the 49ers could even be in a position where they have the debate over whether resting players in Week 18 could be more detrimental than useful.
As things stand entering Week 16, the 49ers are 11-3 with a one-game lead over the Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, and Philadelphia Eagles. Additionally, the 49ers have the advantage when it comes to playoff tiebreakers over all of those three teams.
They defeated both the Eagles and Cowboys earlier in the year and have a two-game lead over all three teams when it comes to their conference records.
Even in the worst-case scenario that the 49ers go 0-3 down the stretch, they could still get the No. 1 seed if none of the Cowboys, Eagles, or Lions can win two of their final three. With games against the Baltimore Ravens, Washington Commanders, and Los Angeles Rams, it seems unlikely the 49ers would go 0-3, but it is not out of the question.
All the 49ers need to do is win two of their final three games. However, a loss in Week 16 to the Ravens combined with wins for any of the other three will make them a little nervous.
MORE: NFL Week 16 Playoff Bracket
That would leave San Francisco with no margin for error when it comes to the final two weeks of the season. A loss against either the Commanders or the Rams would open the door wide for either of the other two teams.
There is even a scenario where the 49ers could lock up the NFC No. 1 seed this week. If they win and all of their three closest rivals lose, the 49ers would have an unassailable lead.
With San Francisco playing the final game of the week, they will know heading into kickoff whether they can lock up that all-important Wild Card Weekend bye on Christmas Day or not.
Here are the 49ers playoff scenarios for clinching the NFC No. 1 seed:
- The 49ers win one of the remaining games, and the Eagles, Cowboys, and Lions all lose on of their remaining games.
- The 49ers win any two of their next three games.
- The Cowboys, Eagles, and Lions fail to win two of their remaining three games.
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