The San Francisco 49ers are now in the wonderful but also pressure-filled situation of controlling their own destiny in the NFC playoff picture. At 10-3, the 49ers now sit atop the NFC and are the only team in the NFL with a playoff spot locked up entering Week 15. However, there is a lot more that the 49ers will want to achieve this season than that.
Let’s take a look at how the 49ers can clinch the NFC West and what they need to do to lock up the number-one seed in the AFC this season.
San Francisco 49ers Playoff Chances – Week 15 Update
Note that this article was originally published on Sunday, Dec. 17 at 9:25 a.m. ET before Sunday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.
After Monday Night Football in Week 15, the 49ers are still the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The 49ers have clinched the NFC West thanks to their victory on Sunday.
1 p.m. Games Update
Panthers (2-12) defeated Falcons (6-8)
Buccaneers (7-7) defeated the Packers (6-8)
Saints (7-7) defeated the Giants (5-9)
Browns (9-5) defeated Bears (5-9)
4 p.m. Games Update
Bills (8-6) defeated Cowboys (10-4)
Rams (7-7) defeated Commanders (4-10)
49ers (11-3) defeated Cardinals (3-11)
Monday Night Football Update
Seahawks (7-7) defeated Eagles (10-4)
Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the 49ers entering Sunday of Week 15. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.
What Are the San Francisco 49ers’ Playoff Scenarios in Week 15?
After becoming the first team to clinch a playoff spot last week, the 49ers could become the first team to clinch a division this week. The 49ers’ scenario for clinching the NFC West is as simple as needing to win or the Los Angeles Rams to lose. Even if they do not lock up the division this week, the 49ers will have three more opportunities in the next three weeks.
However, failing to lock up the NFC West this year with a win has bigger ramifications than the division. After the Philadelphia Eagles lost last week, the 49ers moved into pole position for the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye.
The ESPN Football Power Index gives the 49ers a 94.1% chance of making the Divisional Round, a big portion of which will be made up from the potential they get a bye straight into that round.
The simplest path to that number one seed for the 49ers is to go 4-0 down the stretch. They have head-to-head NFL playoff tiebreakers over both the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles, so whoever wins the NFC East cannot take the number one seed from them in that scenario.
However, a single loss changes the entire picture for the 49ers. If the Eagles or Cowboys do not lose another game this season and the 49ers do, then the NFC East winner will take the bye. Those three teams are realistically the only ones that can get the top seed unless all three have a meltdown down the stretch.
The 49ers have a two-game advantage in the loss column for conference record over the Detroit Lions. Therefore, they would have to lose two of their final four games at a minimum to bring the Lions back into things. If the 49ers, Eagles, and Cowboys all lose once, the 49ers would still have the number one seed.
MORE: San Francisco 49ers Depth Chart
Even if the 49ers lose twice, both of those losses would need to be against NFC teams to even bring the Lions into the conversation. That would then take us to common games or strength of victory, depending on how many teams are involved in the tiebreaker and which teams it is.
The Lions and Cowboys face off in Week 17, which adds a further twist to all of this in terms of a head-to-head component.
Entering Week 15, the 49ers will just be looking at it in terms of winning all of their games. Anything else is out of their control. It will then be a week-by-week situation in terms of how the Cowboys and Eagles play.
If both of them lose, the 49ers will know they have room for error. However, after fighting so hard to bounce back from their three-game skid, San Francisco will want to leave nothing to chance down the stretch.
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