The San Francisco 49ers pulled off a massive win in Week 13, taking down the NFC-leading Philadelphia Eagles and moving within one game in the conference standings. With the Niners sitting at 9-3 heading into Sunday’s game, what’s on the line for Kyle Shanahan and Co. when they face the Seattle Seahawks in Week 14?
With the help of PFN’s Free Playoff Predictor, let’s sort through what the 49ers can accomplish this week, when they could secure the NFC West title, and how close they are to claiming the top seed in the NFC.
Week 14 Update
49ers (10-3) defeated Seahawks (6-7)
San Francisco is now the NFC’s No. 1 seed after Week 14
Cowboys (10-3) defeated Eagles (10-3)
Ravens (10-3) defeated Rams (6-7)
49ers (10-3) defeated Seahawks (6-7)
Bears (5-8) defeated Lions (9-4)
Can the 49ers Clinch a Playoff Berth in Week 14?
San Francisco is well clear of its midseason three-game losing streak, and four straight victories have put the club right back near the top of the NFC standings. The 49ers have performed so well that — despite five weeks remaining in the season — they can clinch a playoff berth on Sunday.
MORE: San Francisco 49ers Depth Chart
First and foremost, San Francisco needs to defeat Seattle in Week 14. The 49ers are 10.5-point favorites at him and just beat the Seahawks by 18 points two weeks ago.
However, SF will also need some help on Sunday. The 49ers will secure a playoff entry via any of the following scenarios:
- SF win + GB loss
- SF win + MIN loss
- SF + GB tie + MIN tie
Clearly, San Francisco is on track for the postseason. Even if they don’t win this week, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has given the 49ers a 100% chance of entering the playoffs. SF hasn’t yet clinched, so that figure is rounded up, but there’s virtually no chance the 49ers won’t be in the dance.
Can the 49ers Clinch the NFC West on Sunday?
San Francisco is going to win the NFC West. The 49ers already have a three-game lead over the Seahawks and the Los Angeles Rams with five weeks remaining. That’s an almost insurmountable lead, which is why FPI gives San Francisco a 99.1% chance of winning the NFC West, the best division odds of any team in the NFL.
Still, the Niners won’t be able to don a Division Champ hat and t-shirt in Week 14. Even if they beat the Seahawks and the Rams lose to the Ravens, they’ll only have a four-game lead with four weeks left. Technically, that would leave the door cracked for Seattle or Los Angeles to storm back, but that scenario would include San Francisco losing out.
However, if the 49ers defeat the Seahawks, they will have the opportunity to clinch the NFC West in Week 15, regardless of how the Rams do against the Ravens this week.
How Can the 49ers Secure the No. 1 Overall Seed?
The race for the NFC’s top seed — and a first-round playoff bye — has essentially come down to two teams. While the Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions still have an outside chance to jump into the No. 1 slot, the Eagles (47%) and the 49ers (42%) are the overwhelming favorites to claim the first seed.
But San Francisco doesn’t control its destiny. Philadelphia is still 10-2, even after losing to the 49ers in Week 14. If the Birds win out, San Francisco won’t have a chance to catch them in the conference standings.
The Eagles also have one of the easiest remaining schedules in the league. Philadelphia will close with two games against the New York Giants and one vs. the Arizona Cardinals. From the 49ers’ perspective, the Eagles’ best chance of losing will come this week, when they’ll be road underdogs to the Cowboys.
If Philadelphia loses on Sunday and San Francisco wins, the 49ers will move into the No. 1 seed in the NFC. But even then, they won’t control their destiny.
While the 49ers and Eagles would have identical 10-3 records in that scenario, and SF would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker, Philadelphia could still win out, end up with a better conference record, and reclaim the No. 1 seed.
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