The San Francisco 49ers‘ fantasy preview discusses Brock Purdy’s upside, while the Philadelphia Eagles‘ outlook centers around the fantasy football value of DeVonta Smith.
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles
- Spread: 49ers -2.5
- Total: 47
- 49ers implied points: 24.8
- Eagles implied points: 22.3
Quarterbacks
Brock Purdy: Last week was the first game since Week 1 that Purdy didn’t have a 30-yard completion, and it resulted in an underwhelming effort. I’ll tell you the same thing I’ll tell George Kittle managers in a few minutes — this is, to a degree, what you signed up for.
Purdy comes with a reasonable floor, thanks to him completing 70% of his passes in five straight games and with 75% of yards gained against the Philadelphia Eagles coming through the air. He also comes with a wide range of outcomes, given the needs of this offense.
In Week 11 against Tampa Bay, Purdy had 21 completions and a QB2 finish. Simultaneously, in Week 12 against the Seahawks in Seattle, he finished with 21 completions and a QB23 finish.
I’m a Purdy fan in this specific spot due to the matchup and the potential for the Eagles to push his aggression. He’s safely inside my top 10, but a savvy fantasy manager takes a look at the entire picture, and that’s what I’m trying to provide here.
Jalen Hurts: The rushing volume is back, and a healthy Hurts is a fantasy game-changer. He’s been a top-five quarterback in six of his past seven games and has scored 20+ fantasy points in 10 straight — the floor/ceiling combination is second to none at the position.
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In the NFC Championship Game last season, Hurts had 15 completions and 11 rush attempts against the ‘Niners. He’s as matchup-proof of a player as we have in fantasy sports these days, so I’m not worried about the fact that San Francisco allows a league-low 2.3 red zone trips per game.
Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey: Nothing to see here — just normalizing 19 carries, six targets, 139 yards, and a pair of touchdowns. CMC has at least 16 carries and five catches in three straight games, making him the closest thing we have to “foolproof” in fantasy sports.
In eight of 11 games this season, McCaffrey has 100 rushing yards or a TD reception. I could write 20,000 words on what he is doing, but I’ll save that for the middle of the summer when the content is thin. “Play CMC” probably covers all the analysis you need heading into Week 13.
D’Andre Swift: He’s the clear RB leading this backfield. The question just revolves around the value of that role. Swift hasn’t finished better than RB25 in three of his past five games, but he has been a top-30 back in every single game since taking over the bell-cow role in Week 2.
You’re starting Swift every week, so let’s get that out of the way. But I’m lowering expectations, and I’m not tempted to call his number in the DFS streets. His advantage over RB Kenneth Gainwell in the routes department was limited last week (19-15), and with Hurts running 10+ times in each of the past three games, those short RB dump-offs are turning into QB carries.
The ceiling isn’t what we thought it would be, but that shouldn’t have you worried about plugging him in weekly.
Wide Receivers
Deebo Samuel: With a rushing touchdown in two of his past three games, subtle markers are pointing toward Samuel assuming the utility role in that he has thrived. That role, in the past, has come with limitations in the passing game — something we didn’t see at all last week.
Samuel led the 49ers in catches, targets (30% share), and receiving yards against the Seahawks. When he sees at least four targets in a game this season (something I feel good about projecting), his average finish at the position is WR20. That’s roughly where he starts for me each week, and with six teams on bye, he moves up the receiver hierarchy into a strong WR2 ranking.
Brandon Aiyuk: The late 28-yard touchdown saved you from a disaster last week, and a TD could well be in the cards again this week against the fifth-worst red-zone unit in the game.
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We know the upside is great for any of the 49ers pass catchers, but it’s been the floor that has encouraged me most from Aiyuk this season. Per the Week 13 Cheat Sheet, he has posted eight straight top-40 weeks, avoiding the week-killing performance that I viewed as inevitable for every member of this passing game at some point.
I have Aiyuk ranked over Samuel just about every week, and this one is no exception. He’s a WR1 for me and worthy of a look in DFS formats for those looking to pay up to get a piece of this game.
A.J. Brown: His touchdown last week saved fantasy managers from tilting two dud performances after a historic run from Brown. He has now found paydirt five times in his past five games.
The scoring is a good bet to continue, as long as the volume remains elite (8+ targets in eight of his past nine games), and there’s no reason to project the opportunities to evaporate any time soon.
Brown saw a 33.3% target share last season when these teams met with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, and if his usage is anything like that this time around, he has a real chance to lead the position in scoring — even in a tough matchup.
DeVonta Smith: Things are beginning to look up for Smith at the right time for fantasy managers. He has scored in three of his past four games and has at least 99 receiving yards in three of four, as well. Smith has seen at least eight targets in consecutive games following the bye – an impressive usage pattern for a receiver that didn’t see even six targets in consecutive games prior.
Smith was limited to just three targets (12.5% share) when these teams met in the NFC Title game last winter, but that was a one-sided game where the Eagles ran the ball 44 times, so reading too much into the numbers from that game isn’t wise.
Smith certainly carries risk, and Hurts’ 60.4% completion rate over the past two weeks doesn’t help those concerns. But the upside is high enough, and this offense is consistent enough to plug in Smith without much of a second thought.
Tight Ends
George Kittle: If you thought the good times from the three games prior (20 catches for 354 yards and two touchdowns) to Week 12 were going to last for the remainder of the season, that’s a you problem, not a Kittle problem.
We talked about this on the podcast all week — Kittle’s production profile is the same now as it was entering the week as it was entering the season. That is, his value to the 49ers comes in a variety of ways, and his role isn’t always fantasy-friendly. That didn’t change after a slow start to the season, nor did it change after stringing three straight big games together.
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If you flipped a coin three times and you got heads each time, you wouldn’t be changing the math on what that four-flip return, would you?
Kittle is a great player, and San Francisco is a great team. He has at least one massive day and one dud left to give us in 2023. You drafted him knowing this, and you’re starting him weekly with the understanding that you’ll take the good with the bad.
The Eagles held him to four targets and 32 yards in the NFC Championship Game last season, but that was a game where Purdy was lost early, and the 49ers were without a legitimate signal-caller.
Dallas Goedert: Make sure he’s rostered. There aren’t any reports that I’ve come across up to this point that suggest that this week is a realistic return target, but next week figures to be in play, given that the team didn’t put him on IR following this injury back in Week 9.
Should You Start Jared Goff or Brock Purdy?
Goff is playing indoors, and that is always a good thing for his fantasy managers, but I lean Purdy in the game of the week. The matchup with the Eagles sounds daunting, but it’s Philadelphia’s run defense that is elite, not their secondary.
Let’s not complicate things here — Goff faces a tough matchup and has less talent by his side to elevate his fantasy standing.
Should You Start Taysom Hill or George Kittle?
This call goes the way of Kittle, but not by as much as it would have if you asked me this question back in September. Both of these sites offer a wide range of outcomes, but much like the QB decision, I prefer the 49ers matchup when it comes to producing through the air.
Due to the injuries in New Orleans, I expect Detroit to devote resources the way of Hill, a luxury the Eagles don’t have with Kittle. Both are easily in starting lineups this week, but I prefer Kittle if forced to pick between the two.
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