Fantasy football managers are in a weird spot here – lots of star power but an awfully low projected point total. The San Francisco 49ers‘ fantasy preview stacks up their pass catchers against a tough defense, while the Cleveland Browns‘ fantasy outlook takes a look at the value of Jerome Ford.
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San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns
- Spread: 49ers -5.5
- Total: 37.5
- 49ers implied points: 21.5
- Browns implied points: 16
Quarterbacks
Brock Purdy: Through five weeks, Purdy has seen his MVP odds slashed in half and has finished as a top-13 fantasy option four times. He’s been nothing short of amazing. I caution you, however, to not chase those numbers. As impressive as they are, that production is in the past and can’t help you moving forward.
The Browns are a top-five defense against fantasy quarterbacks entering Week 6 and have had an extra week to prepare for this matchup. This is a tough spot for Purdy as it is, and there is natural regression to anticipate.
MORE: Brock Purdy Trade Value — What To Do With 49ers QB Moving Forward
In five games, he has thrown 30 passes just once, a lack of volume that is simply difficult to feel good about with an elite defense on the docket.
Purdy is my QB16 this week.
Deshaun Watson: It was rumored that Watson (shoulder) was cleared to play in Week 4, but he opted to sit. Backup QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson saw his completion count match his QBR, giving the team every reason to want Watson back after the bye week.
The last time we saw Watson was in an impressive 27-3 win over the Tennessee Titans, where he went 27 for 33 with 289 yards and two scores. That was nice, but this matchup isn’t that. I’m not dismissing Watson as a potential top-12 option with time, but he won’t be that in this matchup without full health.
Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey: Where are we at with CMC these days? He posted 78 yards and a touchdown in the Week 5 blowout of the Cowboys, and fantasy managers were complaining.
There's a new #NFL MVP favorite! Latest odds to win MVP this year via @betonline_ag:
Brock Purdy (+375)
Patrick Mahomes (+450)
Tua Tagovailoa (+500)
Josh Allen (+600)
Jalen Hurts (+700)
Christian McCaffrey (14/1)
Justin Herbert (16/1)
Trevor Lawrence (18/1)
Lamar Jackson (20/1)— Jaime Eisner (@JaimeEisner) October 11, 2023
McCaffrey has scored in 14 straight games (T-second-longest streak in NFL history) and is versatile enough to put up high-end numbers against one of the best defenses in the league. He could flirt with 2,300 total yards and 20 scores in a LaDainian Tomlinson-like season.
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Thank your lucky stars for having him on your roster. Seasons like this don’t come around all that often.
Elijah Mitchell: A knee injury sidelined him last week, and the hope seems to be that one game off is all that he will need.
While Mitchell doesn’t hold standalone value, this is an injury worth monitoring as the backup RB in San Francisco is only a CMC injury away from being a weekly fantasy asset.
Jordan Mason ran hard (10 carries for 69 yards and a touchdown) in mop-up time against the Cowboys and should be on your radar if Mitchell’s timetable to recover gets extended.
Jerome Ford: Ford has averaged under three yards per carry in both of his games since taking over the starting role for Nick Chubb, though they have come in tough spots (Titans and Ravens).
Even with limited success, Ford has found a way to reward fantasy managers in both of those games (two short scores in Week 3 and five catches in Week 4) and Kareem Hunt has yet to pose a legitimate threat to his lead role.
The schedule will lighten with time, but that time is not Week 6 – the 49ers are coming to town. The brutal matchup makes Ford just as risky as he proved to be in his past two games: he needs to do something exceptional.
He may do it, but the fact that Ford needs to do it to pay off is what has him a bit lower in my ranks this week than in previous ones. I have Ford as a fine Flex play that carries as much (if not more) risk as potential reward.
Kareem Hunt: He has picked up 25 yards on his 10 carries since signing with the Browns and saw just three targets in those two games.
If you have roster space available, he’s a fine stash, though I don’t see him holding standalone value any time soon sans an injury to Ford.
If you’re in a roster crunch for one reason or another, Hunt is on the chopping block.
Wide Receivers
Brandon Aiyuk: As per usual, the Aiyuk Express is difficult to gauge. He has played four games this season and has alternated top-10 finishes with performances that rank him outside of the top 35.
On the bright side, his involvement has been consistent (6-8 targets in each of those games), something that gives us hope for stability. Most weeks, I prefer Aiyuk to Deebo Samuel, but this week, I have them flipped.
2023 aDOT
- Aiyuk: 15.7 yards
- Samuel: 7.4 yards
Deebo Samuel: Why do I prefer Samuel to Aiyuk this week? That difference in the average depth of target listed above creates a floor that I want to target this week against the best-pressure defense in the league.
Despite the low aDOT, per the Week 6 Cheat Sheet, Samuel has a 20-yard catch in four of five games and a 40-yarder in two of his past three (the exception in both of those cases was Week 4 against the Cardinals, a game in which he was used as a decoy while battling a rib injury).
Before that injury, Samuel was averaging 12 opportunities per game, and that is the sort of role I want when going head-to-head with the rested elite front seven that the Browns bring to the table. Both are WR2s for me this week, but Samuel is on the high end while Aiyuk is on the low.
Amari Cooper: With only one top-30 finish on the season, I understand it if you’re getting antsy as a Cooper manager. But keep in mind that he’s averaging nearly eight targets per game and looked good in the two games before the Week 4 disaster that featured Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center.
My ranking of Cooper as a low-end WR2 (WR3 in this game) is me betting on a healthy version of Watson coming out of the bye. If we get word that Watson’s shoulder continues to bother him, Cooper would fall 10 spots in my ranks, landing him in the Gabe Davis range for Week 6.
Elijah Moore: I’m encouraged by the 8.3 targets he has averaged in Watson’s starts this season and remain bullish on him the rest of the way. But not in this spot with a less than 100% healthy Watson.
As involved as he has been, Moore still has yet to score or clear 50 receiving yards in a game, putting his floor lower than someone I am comfortable with inside my top 35.
For reference, I prefer both Vikings receivers with their expanded roles over Moore this week.
Donovan Peoples-Jones: I remain a buyer of his talent.
But with just one game of 15+ receiving yards this season, there’s no reason you need to hold onto DPJ.
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If his air-yard share (currently at 11.9%) ticks up and Watson shows increased health, I’ll be using this space to sell you on DPJ as a bye-week play. But until we get visual proof of that, we can’t bank on it.
Tight Ends
George Kittle: Hours before turning 30 years old, Kittle turned three catches against the Cowboys into 26.2 fantasy points in an efficient effort as you’ll see (three catches for 67 yards and three scores).
Of course, he can’t do that every week, though we do know these explosive performances are in his bag. Kittle has 5+ catches in just two of his past 15 regular-season games — a lack of volume that makes him a sell-high option if you have a good offer on the table.
I wouldn’t force a deal. Kittle’s one of maybe six tight ends that you’re starting weekly, but I’d be open for business if it means improving my depth.
David Njoku: Njoku doesn’t have a 50-yard game on his résumé this season, and yet, he’s still viable. #TEproblems
With at least four catches in three straight games and a passing game that potentially offers upside if Watson is right, there are enough paths to production to consider Njoku as a top-15 option at the position.
I don’t think he’s more than a streamer at this point, but if you’re cycling through the position and he was cut loose during the bye week, Njoku’s a fine roll of the dice in a game where I expect the Browns to be forced to go through the air.
Should You Start Brock Purdy or Jared Goff?
As good as Purdy has been, this matchup still scares me. We are talking about a quarterback who has thrown 30 passes in a game once this season facing the top time-of-possession team in the league.
That’s a tough sell over Goff and a Lions offense that is rolling. Neither QB offers much with his legs, so I’m happy to take my chances on Goff and his 10-13 edge in attempts.
Should You Start Jerome Ford or Rachaad White?
I don’t love the idea of taking on the 49ers, but I have Ford one spot higher in my Week 6 ranks, trusting Cleveland to commit to the ground game than Tampa Bay. Both hold a reasonable floor due to their projectable touch count, and that’s enough to land them both in my low-end RB2 tier.