The San Francisco 49ers could be looking for an upgrade at wide receiver. Luckily for them, Antonio Brown is on the market.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have seemingly decided to yield to Antonio Brown’s antics and contract demands. Brown hasn’t just burned the bridge back to Pittsburgh, he has incinerated it. In a tantrum not seen since Terrell Owens was a member of the Philadelphia Eagles, Brown abandoned the Steelers. He left the team right before a pivotal matchup that had playoff implications.
Were the 49ers paying attention to what transpired?
Amidst conversation with former 49ers great Jerry Rice, Brown photoshopped himself in a 49ers jersey while sharing an embrace with the former legend. Speculation began soon after. But how well would Brown actually fit into San Francisco’s offense?
One might argue that a player of Brown’s caliber, who’s had six consecutive 1,200-yard seasons, could fit into any offense. I would caution, however, that we have been here before with 1,000-yard Steelers receivers.
Mike Wallace was a former star receiver for the Steelers. He signed a big free agent deal with the Miami Dolphins, who shall we say, did not have Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback. Wallace was an underachieving, target-needy receiver who never looked like the player he was in Pittsburgh.
WIll Brown be more of the same? Doubtful. Brown is indeed a prolific receiver, especially in an offense that runs through him the way Pittsburgh’s does. This is why it was amusing to hear Brown complain about lack of targets this season.
Behind the numbers
Brown finished 3rd in the league in targets with 168.
With that being said, could Brown re-create the same magic if he isn’t targeted so heavily? In San Francisco, he would be entering Kyle Shanahan’s West Coast offense, which is predicated on spreading the ball around. While receiving the third most targets in the league, Brown had the lowest catch percentage of the top nine target-getters.
Brown caught just over 61 percent of his 168 targets. Of receivers that had at least 43 targets, he finished behind 77 of them.
Before anyone says that list includes far inferior receivers, check out who led the entire league: Michael Thomas of the New Orleans Saints. Thomas caught over 85% of his targets — 24 more percentage points on 21 fewer targets.
What does that all mean? It means Brown needs the third-most targets to get you the eleventh-most yards. That’s not very efficient, and it suggests that Jimmy Garoppolo better make sure Brown gets the ball.
How would Brown fit in?
San Francisco’s best receiver last year was Dante Pettis. Pettis had a PFN Offensive Share Metric (OSM) rating of 36 last season, which puts him in the top-five of all receivers recorded. This means he was above average in key metrics that measure individual receiver contribution to an offense’s production. The leader? Michael Thomas, once again.
Based on OSM, Pettis was underutilized. He could have fared better If Garoppolo didn’t get injured early in the season. C.J. Beathard did his team no favors coming in with the second-worst OSM of all 39 qualifying quarterbacks. His 15.1 beat out only Blake Bortles.
One of Pettis’ strengths was getting more yards after the catch (YAC) than he probably should have. Pettis finished ninth among all pass catchers in expected YAC differential. This measures how much more or less YAC a receiver had relative to what they should have. He was plus 1.9.
Brown? He was No. 43 on the list. The 49ers’ offense is predicated on receivers getting more yards after the catch. In fact, tight end George Kittle finished first in the entire league with 3.2 more yards after the catch than he should have. This is what San Francisco relies on. Even Marquise Goodwin finished seventh.
However, Brown would be an instant upgrade over Kendrick Bourne. While Bourne had a slightly better catch percentage, his YAC differential was lower and no one in their right mind would call Bourne a better receiver than Brown. Bourne also had a significantly lower OSM than Brown. Brown had a 35 while Bourne had a 33.
For the 49ers, it comes down to this – Does Brown’s skill set, attitude and inefficiency significantly disrupt what the team is trying to achieve?
From a skill perspective, all current receivers on the team are better at getting separation. Pettis and Goodwin are better at getting more than expected YAC and they fit the West Coast offense well. Brown relies on lots of targets to produce the numbers he does.
In regards to attitude, while Brown received the third most targets in the league, he was still unhappy with his target share, thanks to the emergence of Juju Smith-Schuster.
The final say
While Brown may have a legitimate gripe regarding the treatment of Roethlisberger, he quit on his team in the season’s biggest moment and has done little to show he has matured since that selfish episode.
Even with the big name and gaudy statistics, if I were general manager John Lynch, I would pass on Brown. He is not a good fit for the offense and trying to force him in could implode the team. Garoppolo is a young quarterback and doesn’t need a receiver in his ear begging him to get him the ball every play.
With all of Brown’s incredible production, why has it resulted in zero super bowl appearances? Yes, he was in one in 2011, a game where he had one catch for one yard. But since? Zero appearances. What good is production if it takes an incredible amount of effort to produce with no championship game appearances to show for it?
The 49ers have the chance to build a solid young team in an exciting new culture. That culture, up until now, has been built organically.
Do you know what team doesn’t have a receiver even close to the caliber of Brown? The Patriots. The winners of this most recent Super Bowl and winners of six overall — all done with role players who fit what they do.
Continue down that road Mr. Lynch. Don’t be duped by statistics that don’t mean a whole lot.