The former No. 4 overall pick of the 2014 NFL Draft, WR Sammy Watkins is on a new team for the fourth time in his career. Will this change of scenery finally lead to fantasy football success, or is Watkins someone to avoid at his current ADP and fantasy outlook on a run-heavy Baltimore Ravens’ offense?
Sammy Watkins’ fantasy outlook for 2021
Ask anyone who has played fantasy football — especially dynasty — how they feel about Sammy Watkins. You are likely to be met by disgruntled responses. Despite going as the WR1 of his class, Watkins has been very average. That point is only exacerbated when you know which other WRs were in the 2014 NFL Draft: Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Jr., Brandin Cooks, Davante Adams, and Jarvis Landry, just to name a few.
In 86 games, Watkins has compiled 321 receptions on 546 targets for 4,665 yards and 33 touchdowns. However, injuries have been the overarching storyline of Watkins’ career. In his seven seasons in the NFL, he has played in all 16 games just once (his rookie season).
Now, Watkins goes from the prolific offense of the Kansas City Chiefs to the run-focused Baltimore Ravens. I bring this up because if you can’t find fantasy success with Patrick Mahomes, then it’s hard to imagine you ever will.
Since finishing as the WR27 and WR17, respectively, in his first two seasons, Watkins has been the WR91, WR38, WR63, WR51, and WR92 in the five seasons following.
The Ravens have difficulty producing one fantasy-relevant receiver in a season, let alone five options once you add Watkins to Marquise Brown, Mark Andrews, and now rookies Rashod Bateman and Tylan Wallace.
Heading to the Ravens can only be seen as a downgrade for Watkins’ fantasy outlook, and he is a player I would be extremely wary of in 2021.
Fantasy projection
As I touched on, Watkins has struggled to stay on the field. Since 2018, he has played on just 58% of the offensive snaps. The only time you have ever felt secure in starting Watkins has been in Week 1 before an injury could strike. In an almost comical way, it was also the best time to start Watkins.
Over the past two seasons, Watkins has recorded 16 receptions on 20 targets for 280 yards and 4 touchdowns in Week 1 outings. Those two games accounted for 25% of his yards and 80% of his touchdowns.
Yet, I do not believe this streak will carry over for a third year. Even in Week 1, Watkins is likely the fourth passing option behind Bateman despite camp reports that are highly positive for Watkins.
As the season progresses, Wallace will also have time to develop as a rookie. However, he’s not quite polished enough to make a sizable impact early in 2021.
Between Andrews and Brown, they should account for nearly 42% of the targets. That would leave on average 18 targets per game to be dispersed to the rest of the offense. When you factor in the likelihood of multiple missed games for Watkins, it’s hard to see him as a reliable fantasy option.
Conservative projections have Watkins in for another disappointing season with 45 targets, 30 receptions, 350-375 yards, and 2 touchdowns.
Sammy Watkins’ ADP
According to Sleeper, Watkins has an ADP of 207.7 in PPR formats. However, according to NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Watkins has an ADP of 199.6.
Should you draft Watkins in 2021 for fantasy?
If you want to take a shot on Watkins as your final pick in your draft, that’s fine. You’re likely to end up dropping him after a few rounds of waivers, but there is little risk at his ADP.
Sure, he could surprise us and stay healthy, but what about volume? By no means am I slighting on Lamar Jackson. I think he is a better passer than given credit for, but it is a scheme issue. Even as the WR2 on the Ravens, when compared to the rest of the NFL, that is at best WR3-type volume.
Let’s say that Watkins will be the WR2 for the Ravens. What does that look like? From 2017-2020, the WR2 for the Ravens has finished as the WR66, WR54, WR74, and WR85, respectively. Move it to WR3, and well, let’s not even go there. It’s not pretty, and we can leave it at that.
Talent has never been the question for Watkins. It’s just been putting it all together that has soured many on his fantasy outlook. If it were me, I would be far more inclined to look at other WRs going in a similar ADP like Jakobi Meyers, Dyami Brown, Tre’Quan Smith, Bryan Edwards, and Amon-Ra St. Brown.