Samaje Perine is a six-year veteran who joins the Denver Broncos after spending each of the past three seasons as Joe Mixon insurance in Cincinnati. He’s again behind a very talented back, but this time, it’s Javonte Williams, who is coming off of a Week 4 tear of both his ACL and LCL.
Fantasy football managers are forced to consider Perine’s potential to hold a significant role early with the idea that his usage could dip in a massive way as the season wears on.
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Samaje Perine’s Fantasy Outlook
Perine was a clear-cut RB2 for the Bengals last season, but when his number was called, he was ready. There were four games last season in which he reached double figures in the touch department. In those games, he averaged 20.3 half-PPR points per game with an 80% catch rate and over 4.0 yards per carry.
Perine’s role in 2023, however, might be less about him and more about the health of Williams. As a rookie, Williams racked up 1,219 yards and looked the part of a featured back for years to come.
He assumed that role for the first three games of 2022 (17.3 touches per game) before shredding his knee on Oct. 2 in Vegas. The promising 23-year-old was able to avoid the PUP list to open camp, but how Williams will look in Week 1 is a mystery.
As for the rest of Denver’s offense as a whole, things can’t get worse, right?
This was the lowest-scoring team in the NFL (16.9 ppg), and you could argue it looked worse than the numbers suggest. The primary pieces remain intact, the hope being that paying up for Sean Payton allows them to flourish.
Can Perine Hold Standalone Value When Williams Is Active?
The answer is yes, but the level of consistency figures to be a moving target. The Broncos will likely be cautious with Williams out of the gate, and with Denver not going on bye until Week 9, we could see a slow ramp-up as they track his recovery.
Among their first four games, Denver plays just one defense that was top 15 in yards per carry allowed and another that was top 20 in rush TD rate. Those are the sort of plus-matchups that could render both sides of a committee useful in deeper formats, especially when you consider the three-down role we saw Perine fill when called up last season.
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Of course, the idea of sustaining a pair of viable RBs is based on considerable offensive improvement, so be aware that betting on Perine involves multiple moving pieces.
I think it’s unlikely that Perine holds much value if/when Williams is fully unleashed. Even if that’s the case, he remains rosterable due to his clear path to a feature role and the potential for a touch count on Williams.
If a re-injury should occur, Perine would move into the RB2 discussion … and with the Raiders (23rd in yards per carry allowed) and Chargers (32nd) to close the regular season, there’s a chance he can be locked into lineups when it matters most.
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Perine at His ADP?
Perine’s ADP will likely be a moving piece as we continue to get updates on Williams, but as a fringe top-100 player, he’s a touch overvalued in the current market.
Yes, the case can be made that his role equity is strong due to the nature of the injury hobbling the starter ahead of him, but I worry about Perine’s ability to capitalize on such an opportunity. That’s not to say he can’t excel if called upon. I just don’t see a world in which he’s the lead back for an extended period of time absent an injury.
In this range, I’d rather draft either Washinton Commanders RB, with the thought being that both can win that featured job outright. I’d also much rather gamble on Khalil Herbert, whom I think is the favorite to lead Chicago’s backfield in work from Day 1. From a value perspective, De’Von Achane a few rounds later has my interest.
You’re not losing your league because you spent a ninth-round pick on Perine. There’s just better uses of that draft capital.