Matthew Stafford has been playing some good football of late, and that has this Los Angeles Rams offense clicking at the right time. While I trust this offense to produce, Stafford’s leg in this same game parlay pick is a play on this specific matchup and statistical trends when it comes to the New Orleans Saints.
New Orleans Saints vs. Los Angeles Rams Betting Lines
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- Spread
Rams -4 - Moneyline
Saints +164, Rams -198 - Total
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We here at Soppe HQ like to encourage responsible gaming, and in that vein, I’ll always offer you a trivia question at the top of these articles.
Pose this question to a buddy you are watching the game with: answer correctly and you pay for the SGP, misfire and he/she is on the hook.
Saints vs. Rams Same Game Parlay
Trivia Question: Two-part question, you need to get both right!
- A. True or False: Kyren Williams has more rushing yards this season than Alvin Kamara has ever finished a regular season with.
- B. True or False: Kyren Williams averages more yards per touch over his career than Alvin Kamara does.
The Rams have won four of five games since their bye week and are favored to keep the good times rolling. I’m on board with that train of thought, though I’m not sure we see the production through the air that fantasy football managers are hoping for.
Let’s start with picking this game against the spread. The Rams are allowing just 17.7 points per game this season when not facing a player who is currently a top-six player on the MVP betting board.
This might surprise you, but no Saint is even available to bet on for MVP honors, let alone one of the favorites to take home the trophy.
Building on that idea of only strong players/teams succeeding in a significant way against Los Angeles, when Stafford is under center for a loss, the opponents’ win percentage (through 15 weeks) is 67.1%. That’s a high mark that is well ahead of the Saints’ under Derek Carr this season (53.1%).
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Say what you will about New Orleans, but you’d have to jump through some hoops to talk yourself into them as anything more than a league-average team.
The Rams have scored at least 28 points in the four games since Kyren Williams returned to action, flashing efficiency and balance that appears sustainable in the process. Scoring at that level is asking a lot of the Saints, a team that has failed to clear 20 points in five of their seven road games this season.
Now that we have our winner and have talked ourselves into a low-scoring evening from the Saints, the final piece of this SGP revolves around how the Rams matriculate the ball down the field.
This is one of the rare instances where the puzzle pieces align nicely. The Saints are the sixth-worst run defense in yards per carry and Williams has been rolling since his return (89 carries for 497 yards, 5.6 ypc).
As a result of that success, the Rams have excelled at holding onto the ball. In fact, in three of those four games, they’ve posted a time of possession rate north of 55.5% (a rate that would lead the league if sustained for the season).
With us projecting success on the ground, the passing numbers for Stafford stand to suffer. The Saints’ defense will certainly factor into that as well – they are the fifth-best unit on a per-attempt basis against the pass and see the second-lowest percentage of opponent yards to come through the air.
Combine the strengths of New Orleans with a deeper dive into Stafford, and you’ll be on board with where I’m going with this.
Among the 28 quarterbacks with 200+ pass attempts this season, Stafford owns the fifth-highest miss rate along with the third-highest drop rate. If we think chunk plays are going to be tough to come by, those numbers are damning when it comes to his yardage prop.
If you think I’m speculating too much with that, fine. Do you prefer simple math?
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This season, when Williams plays and the game ends in regulation, Stafford is averaging 33 pass attempts per game.
- Career: 7.3 yards per attempt
- 2023: 7.3 yards per attempt
That would land us on a 241-yard projection, a result that cashes this leg without really taking into account the strength of the opposition.
Trivia Answer: True and False. Kyren Williams has 21 more rushing yards this season (953) than Alvin Kamara has ever posted in a regular season. Williams is averaging 5.23 yards per touch for his career, falling just shy of Kamara’s 5.55 career rate.
Same Game Parlay Pick: Rams -4, Saints under 20.5 points scored, Matthew Stafford under 247.5 passing yards
Odds:+305 (at DraftKings)
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