The New Orleans Saints are not out of it yet, as they still have a solid chance at a playoff spot. However, they need to handle their business against the rival Atlanta Falcons. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons Week 18 matchup, the NFL odds, and make a pick and prediction.
New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons pick, prediction | Week 18
- Spread: Saints -4.5 (Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Moneyline: Saints -210, Falcons +175
- Over/Under: 40
Sean Payton deserves props for pulling the team together
Not many teams in the league have faced as many injury/COVID issues this season as the New Orleans Saints. Yet, somehow, here we are in Week 18 talking about how the Saints can make the playoffs.
In the first year of life after Drew Brees, Sean Payton has had four starting quarterbacks. Preferred starter Jameis Winston tore his ACL in Week 8, and since then, it’s been a carousel of starters trying to keep the Saints alive.
[bet-promo id=”174860″ ]Not only that, New Orleans has played their entire season without star wide receiver Michael Thomas, who faced complications on the road to recovery from an ankle injury. Add to that the fact that Alvin Kamara missed an entire month, and in recent weeks, the Saints have had groups of players find their way onto the COVID list. Nevertheless, they still have a chance.
Payton has done the best he could all season with what he has at his disposal. With that said, if they win on Sunday and the 49ers lose, the Saints will sneak into the playoffs as the No. 7 seed. That’s all you can really ask for after a turbulent year. With a ticket to the dance, anything can happen on any given Sunday.
Falcons’ motive to spoil the party
Make no mistake about it, the Falcons would love to be responsible for knocking the Saints out of the postseason. Atlanta themselves were taken out of contention last Sunday with their loss to the Buffalo Bills. This Sunday, they could take New Orleans with them.
The Falcons open up this week as 4.5-point underdogs. Could the Falcons go into the Superdome in the middle of New Orleans and spoil the party?
Saints vs. Falcons betting trends
The Saints have won three of their last four against the spread and outright. The most impressive of those, of course, was the shut out of Tom Brady and the current Super Bowl champion Buccaneers.
But more interestingly — with a stellar defense and accompanying offensive struggles — the Saints are on a six-game streak of cashing unders. That is certainly something to keep an eye on with a 40-point over/under coming up this Sunday and everything to play for.
On the other side, Atlanta has struggled in their last three. They scraped a win against the Detroit Lions but failed to cover the 7.5-point spread. They lost their other two games against both the 49ers and Bills. The Falcons have also cashed the under three games in a row and seven of their last eight games.
So as a whole, these two teams have cashed ONE under out of a possible 12. So you know what that means — bet the over…maybe?
Saints vs. Falcons prediction
The Saints clearly need this one. However, they’ll have to rely on their defense to secure it. While it’s mightily impressive that Payton has this roster in a playoff situation, it’s also evident that the team is struggling to handle all of the adversity they’re dealing with.
On Sunday, I think this will be a nail-biter decided by a final drive turnover or field goal. And for that reason, I want the Falcons at +4.5. I think it’ll be a low-scoring game, a fun one for the neutrals, and the Saints might just scrape it in the dying moments.
Saints vs. Falcons Prediction: Saints 17, Falcons 14