Alvin Kamara has officially been suspended for the first three games of the 2023 regular season for his role in a fight outside of a Vegas nightclub last year. Through six years, Kamara has missed just 1.7 games per season, but his availability will be a concern when it comes to his ranking.
The five-time Pro Bowler has been a fantasy football asset since he entered the league, exceeding 1,200 yards in every season, so his absence opens up a valuable role. Let’s take a look at the impacted parties.
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Suspension Impact on Alvin Kamara
We knew a suspension was coming, and it could have been worse, so Kamara moved up my ranks from RB30 to RB24 but is still outside of my “lock him in weekly” tier at the position. There are two concerns to address: the impact of the missed time and the declining trajectory of his production.
Depth Chart
Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller will handle the backfield duties in the absence of Kamara behind New Orleans’ shaky offensive line. Williams led the league in touchdowns last season (17 with the Lions), while Miller was a third-round pick in April after scoring 17 times for TCU (6.2 yards per carry). The team will get an extended look at both backs during the first three weeks in favorable matchups, making them a true threat to turn this into a committee.
Production Concerns
As for Kamara’s age curve, I’m nervous. In 2022, he recorded his second-least-efficient season in terms of fantasy points per target and the worst season of his career on a per-touch basis. The ladder is most concerning: That’s consecutive seasons setting a new career-low.
A decline in scoring has resulted in a dip in fantasy production (one touchdown since Halloween), and with a pair of proven scoring threats in this backfield, what’s the upside in that department? Kamara failed to make my bounce-back article for his lack of positive outcomes.
Suspension Impact on Jamaal Williams
The 28-year-old is fresh off of the best season of his career (1,066 rush yards with 17 scores), and it earned him a three-year deal with the Saints in March. That monster season was great to see, but it is important to note the fortune involved. Remove an outlier 51-yard TD rush, and Williams averaged just 2.5 yards per touchdown run. That’s tough to sustain, but his ability to cash in those attempts is a real skill.
Williams caught 38 passes during his 30 games with the Lions, so the recent pass-catching profile doesn’t paint an optimistic picture, but he did average 2.5 catches from 2019-20 with the Packers. Given his experience in the league, Williams is the best bet to lead this backfield in touches through three weeks and should be featured in red-zone situations.
Suspension Impact on Kendre Miller
Miller thrived last season in his first as a feature back, scoring 17 times in 14 games and touching the ball over 17 times per game. He, too, is limited as a receiving threat (29 catches in his college career), but his frame is NFL-ready (5’11”, 215 pounds) and should allow him to hold up in the pros.
Miller’s increase in fantasy value is a result of opportunity. He will now have a chance to prove himself valuable and earn future work. His season-long ceiling remains capped (Kamara is the unquestioned pass-catching back when he returns, while Williams will handle the short-yardage situations), but this early-season opportunity gives him a chance to carve out a niche.
Final Verdict
Kamara is still the back in this offense I want, but the other two are certainly draftable assets. How you approach this backfield will be decided by how your roster shapes up. If you’re looking at a version of Zero RB, Williams becomes a must-have. If you want out of the Kamara business and are seeking roster depth, Miller is a strong option to consider.
During those first three weeks, both Miller and Williams will have flex appeal. In those games, they play:
- Two defenses that were in the bottom 10 in yards after contact last season
- Two defenses that ranked 20th or worse in TD rate
- Two defenses that were among the eight worst red-zone units
Reasonable minds will disagree as to which Saints back they want (I’m still on Kamara), but I think you want at least one of them on your roster.
Over their final 10 games this season, eight come against below-average defenses in terms of yards per play, and seven come against below-average red-zone units. This offense has the potential to surprise people, and I want some cheap exposure to it!