The Week 16 Thursday Night Football matchup between the New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Rams will likely have a major impact on the shape of the NFC playoff picture. Both teams desperately need to win as they hunt down a postseason berth. Will Kyren Williams, Matthew Stafford, and the rest of the Rams have too much for Derek Carr and Co. to handle, or can the Saints go into Los Angeles and upset the Rams?
In our Saints vs. Rams predictions, our betting experts break down the current odds and give their picks for this Week 16 Thursday Night Football game.
New Orleans Saints vs. Los Angeles Rams Betting Lines
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- Spread
Rams -4 - Moneyline
Saints +170, Rams -200 - Total
46.5
Saints vs. Rams Predictions and Expert Picks
Rolfe: This game is intriguing because I feel like the Saints are somewhat paper tigers. Their .306 strength of victory shows that their 7-7 record is not based on huge wins over talented teams. The Saints’ best win is over an 8-6 Indianapolis Colts team, but all the others have been under .500.
The Rams should win, but I lack the confidence they will cover by more than a field goal. Their defense is not great, and a backdoor cover could be on the table here. The Rams’ over 24.5 points might be the play here, but I don’t feel strongly about the other lines this week.
Pick: Rams Over 24.5 points (-115 at ESPNBet)
Bearman: These are two teams battling for postseason spots down the stretch. The Rams’ only path in is the Wild Card route after the San Francisco 49ers clinched the NFC West in Week 15. The Saints can get in via the Wild Card or by winning the NFC South. Both teams control their destiny, starting with this Thursday night matchup.
MORE: NFL Week 16 Odds and Betting Trends Against the Spread
Ironically, this is a matchup of two teams that I was high on in the preseason, taking both teams’ overs in win totals. The Rams are already there (5.5), and the Saints would have to win out to get over the 9.5 mark. Right now, it’s Los Angeles playing the better football, going 3-1 since Williams came back.
Pick: Rams -4
Soppe: New Orleans’ top receiver has seen seven red-zone targets over his past seven games and leads the league in air yards. The former statistic is straightforward as to why I find Chris Olave appealing in this market, and the latter gives us access to some splash play potential with Los Angeles owning the second-highest opponent aDOT this season.
As long as Olave can overcome the ankle injury that cost him Week 15, I think he has a good chance to score for the fourth time in six games and double our bet!
Pick: Chris Olave anytime touchdown (+200 at DraftKings)
Gosling: Rams running back Williams has been a rockstar for Los Angeles since coming off of IR. Since he has been healthy and featured in Sean McVay’s offensive game plan, he’s had 143, 88, 114, and 152 rushing yards. Yes, the Saints were able to shut down Saquon Barkley last week, but the defense was able to focus in on the New York Giants’ lone weapon thanks to their subpar passing attack.
In this matchup, the Saints’ defense is going to need to consider Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua. Williams will not be the only weapon they need to deal with. New Orleans has allowed 4.8 yards per carry over its last three games, and their defense ranks 27th in explosive rushing plays allowed this season. They gave up 204 rushing yards to Carolina, continuing a pattern of awful rush defense paired with good pass defense.
The Rams average five yards per carry in the five games since their bye, and Williams is fourth in carries the last five weeks and second in rushing yards (497) with an average of 5.6 yards per carry. I expect him to have another game of 100+ yards on Thursday Night Football.
Pick: Kyren Williams Over 88.5 Rushing Yards (-118 at ESPNBet)
Katz: Maybe I’m just a glutton for punishment, but anytime I can get +200 or better on Taysom Hill to score, I have to do it.
Hill played just 19% of the snaps last week; it was his lowest snap share since Week 1. Is this the Saints moving away from Hill having a key role in the offense? I don’t know. If it is, then this will end up being a bad bet.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
I just can’t help but wonder if Olave’s absence forced them to make some wholesale adjustments that impacted everyone on the field. With Olave back, this offense should look more normal. If they get inside the five-yard line, Hill should get a chance.
Pick: Taysom Hill anytime touchdown (+210 at FanDuel)
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