The New Orleans Saints are a bad team benefitting from a very bad division. The NFC South is the only one of the NFL‘s eight that didn’t have a single team with a winning record entering Week 14. Let’s take a look at the Saints playoff chances.
Can the Saints Still Make the Playoffs?
Yes. The Saints entered Sunday’s game against the New York Giants with a 3.4% chance of making the playoffs, according to the PFN Playoff Predictor. After their win, their chances are now 3.3% to make the playoffs. Why the drop? Well, even though they won, they lost their starting QB Derek Carr for the foreseeable future due to a hand injury.
Yes, there is a chance that the Saints play in the Super Bowl that they’re hosting this February. The odds of them winning that game? Much, much less than 1%.
Can the Saints Still Win the NFC South?
Here’s what the NFC South race looks like:
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a 73.5% chance to win the NFC South.
- The Atlanta Falcons have a 23.6% chance to win the NFC South.
- The New Orleans Saints have a 2.8% chance to win the NFC South.
- The Carolina Panthers have a 0.1% chance to win the NFC South.
Not only can the Saints win the NFC South, but it’s by far their most likely on-ramp to the postseason. They have a 2.8% chance of winning the division while holding just a 1-in-200 chance of qualifying as a Wild Card.
How can they do it? Step 1 is winning out, which would include a Week 18 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who would need to lose at least one other game for New Orleans to get in. However, they would also need multiple losses by the Falcons, because Atlanta owns every head-to-head tiebreaker.
NFC Playoff Race | Week 18
1. Detroit Lions (14-2)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)
3. Los Angeles Rams (10-6)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)
5. Minnesota Vikings (14-2)
6. Washington Commanders (11-5)
7. Green Bay Packers (11-5)
In The Hunt
9. Atlanta Falcons (8-8)
Eliminated From Playoffs
8. Seattle Seahawks (9-7)
10. Dallas Cowboys (7-9)
11. Arizona Cardinals (7-9)
12. San Francisco 49ers (6-10)
13. New Orleans Saints (5-11)
14. Chicago Bears (4-12)
15. Carolina Panthers (4-12)
16. New York Giants (3-13)
Saints’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 15: vs. Washington Commanders
- Week 16: at Green Bay Packers
- Week 17: vs. Las Vegas Raiders
- Week 18: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Saints Preview and Insights Before Giants Game
Gimme ‘Dat’
There’s a lot the Saints don’t do well. But they’re really good at forcing opposing quarterbacks into mistakes.
Their 12 interceptions entering Week 14 are the seventh-most among teams that have already had their bye despite having the fourth-cheapest defensive backfield in the NFL ($16.8 million in 2024 spending).
It’s a boom-or-bust position group. Certainly, the five touchdowns surrendered by corner Alontae Taylor and the 19.5 yards per attempt allowed by Tyrann Mathieu have hurt the secondary’s stat sheet. But opposing quarterbacks are converting just 17.5% of third-down attempts and completing 50% of their passes with a 71.1 passer rating when the Saints are able to bring pressure.
Chase Young has been the Saints’ most reliable pass rusher — despite having just 3.5 sacks on the season. He has 41 pressures on 325 pass-rush snaps, good for a pressure rate of 12.6%.
That’s a dreadful matchup for a Giants offensive line that has the NFL’s worst yards-per-attempt average (5.3) and a sack rate of 9.7%.
Saints Offense vs. Giants Defense — Comparing ROI
It’s uncanny how similarly mediocre the Saints’ offense and the Giants’ defense are. Name a statistical category, and they’re probably close. The Saints score on average 23 points and gain 18.6 first downs per game. The Giants allow 23.3 and 18.3.
New Orleans’ OFF+ ranking is the same as New York’s DEF+: 17th. And the Saints have just as much trouble passing the ball (25th in dropback EPA, -.047) as the Giants have trying to stop the pass (25th, .121).
But at least the Giants are getting more bang for their buck. New Orleans’ 2024 spending on offense is $81.5 million — roughly half of their annual budget. New York has dedicated just $60.7 million in revenue on its defense, which is just a shade less than what the Green Bay Packers are spending on their defensive line alone.
The biggest financial drain on New Orleans’ offense is the $12.3 million in 2024 cap space allocated to right tackle Ryan Ramczyk, who has missed the entire season due to a chronic knee injury.
His replacement, Trevor Penning, has been solid but not spectacular, allowing three sacks and 30 pressures in 424 pass block snaps.
