The New Orleans Saints have lost six straight since a 2-0 start and face a Carolina Panthers team that has lost five straight since their lone win of the season.
Here are our betting picks and predictions from Fantasy Analysts Kyle Soppe and Jason Katz and Chief Content Officer David Bearman for the Saints vs. Panthers matchup.
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Oct. 31, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated.
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New Orleans Saints (-7.5, 43.5) at Carolina Panthers
Soppe: Overs have come through in eight of the past nine instances in which the home team is catching more than six points after Halloween, a trend I think continues in what is expected to be Derek Carr’s return to action.
In this game, we get access to the worst scoring defense in the league (33.9 points per game) on one side and the worst run defense in terms of yards allowed per carry before contact on the other.
Having Bryce Young hold a part of your ticket isn’t a comfortable spot to be, but with both of these defenses ranking bottom six in yards per play and rush EPA (expected points added), there will be opportunities to put points on the board despite a low total.
No, I don’t think New Orleans hangs 47 points on Carolina like they did in Week 1, but if they can flirt with 30, I think this Panthers run game, combined with minor developmental steps from Young post-benching, can get this game to the mid-40s.
Pick: Over 43.5
Stats and Insights: Fantasy, Betting, and Other Notes
New Orleans Saints
Team: New Orleans has lost six straight games, matching their longest skid of the 2000s (also: Weeks 5-11, 2005).
QB: Derek Carr might return to a skeleton crew that doesn’t have the big-play upside of the offense he left. Can he make it work? It’s possible — he’s completing a career-high 77.5% of his short passes this season.
Offense: The Saints have scored 45 points in their past three games — they averaged 45.5 points per game during their 2-0 start this season.
Defense: Over the last three weeks, New Orleans has created pressure on just 25% of opponent dropbacks (Weeks 1-5: 38.1%).
Fantasy: Alvin Kamara has more targets (18) than rush attempts (17) over the past two weeks. After averaging 90.5 rushing yards per game in September, he didn’t reach 70 once in October.
Betting: Since 2020, unders are 27-13 (67.5%) in Saints games played after Halloween.
Betting: The Saints have been 1-6-1 ATS since the start of 2022, when they were favored on the road.
Carolina Panthers
Team: Carolina is technically the home team next week in Germany against the New York Giants — their next true road game doesn’t come until Dec. 8 (Week 14 at Philadelphia).
QB: Baby steps — Young threw a touchdown pass under pressure against the Denver Broncos in Week 8, doubling his career total of such passes in the process.
Offense: The Panthers are averaging 4.0 yards per play in Young’s starts this season (Andy Dalton: 5.3).
Defense: Every team that has faced the Panthers this season has posted a passer rating north of 95 (last week against Denver was the fourth time this season they allowed a rate over 125).
Fantasy: Chuba Hubbard ran for 56 yards against Denver, 59 of which came after contact.
Betting: The Panthers have failed to cover four straight at home, failing to cover by a total of 40.5 points during that stretch.