Tennessee Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill has not really been a fantasy factor outside of a year-and-a-half stretch of touchdown efficiency. With his heir apparent on the roster, does Tannehill have one more run in him? What is his 2023 fantasy football projection?
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Ryan Tannehill’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Tannehill spent the entirety of his 20s on the Dolphins. Outside of his outlier 2014 season that saw him average 18.2 fantasy points per game, he never finished higher than QB20.
After joining the Titans in 2019, Tannehill took over for Marcus Mariota midseason and was suddenly another player. For 12 starts in 2019 and 16 in 2020, Tannehill was a reliable low-end QB1, averaging 19 ppg and 22 ppg, respectively.
Despite averaging just 238 passing yards per game, Tannehill was throwing an inordinate amount of touchdowns. Currently, his career touchdown rate is 4.7%. In 2019 and 2020, it was 7.7% and 6.9%.
Essentially, Tannehill has always been the same quarterback — he just happened to throw for a bunch of touchdowns across those 28 games. Fantasy managers had every right to enjoy the nearly two seasons of strong production, but the reality is Tannehill should be defined by the other 115 starts he’s made.
Over the past two seasons, Tannehill has returned to being mostly that low-end QB2 we remember. Although he finished as the QB14 in 2021, he averaged just 16.6 ppg. It was just a down year for quarterbacks. His 16.7 ppg in 2015 was good for a QB22 finish.
Last season, Tannehill was down to 13.9 ppg and was completely off the fantasy radar.
Should You Draft Ryan Tannehill This Year?
We’re going to see a shift in fantasy football draft strategy this season, the likes of which we haven’t really seen since 2012. Elite quarterbacks are going to go, on average, earlier than they have at any point in the past decade. In most leagues, you won’t see Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Jalen Hurts make it out of the third round. In some, they may start to go in the second.
Having an elite QB is more important now than it has been in a long time, possibly ever. The year-to-year consistency of the top guys staying at the top, combined with their weekly upside, makes them worth the early selections.
With that said, there are only three of them. Not every team can draft a quarterback early. A couple of teams will be forced to draft one later. If that ends up being you for whatever reason, Tannehill is not the guy you should target.
The Titans remain one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL, with a 50% neutral-game-script-run rate. They also play incredibly slow at 30 seconds per snap in neutral game scripts, the fifth-slowest pace in the league.
Tannehill would have to thrive on outlier efficiency, much like he did in 2019 and 2020. There is some good news, though. His supporting cast, which was looking incredibly weak a couple of months ago, now doesn’t look as bad with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins. His arrival allows Treylon Burks to remain in the WR2 role and try and build off a disappointing rookie season.
Behind Burks, the Titans have Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Chris Moore, Kyle Philips, Racey McMath, and Dez Fitzpatrick. None of these guys should be an NFL team’s WR2 or even WR3. Now, only one of them has to start in three-receiver sets.
Tannehill is far from the best quarterback, but we have seen him be fantasy relevant before. He will need Hopkins to remain effective and Burks to take a step forward, but both of those things are very realistic.
Another concern is the Titans used an early second-round pick on Will Levis. This team is currently at a crossroads. Opening the season, they are going to try and run it back one more time — give this thing one more shot. But this is almost certainly Tannehill’s last year with the Titans. If things go south quickly, most people expect them to turn to Levis as they prepare for 2024 and beyond.
Fantasy managers seem to fully understand the circumstances Tannehill has found himself in. He has a QB31 ADP, No. 200 overall. You won’t see him drafted in any of your single-QB leagues. I have him QB30, which is an irrelevant distinction. Any quarterback outside the top 20 is almost certainly not being drafted.
Given that Tannehill is still a starting quarterback as of Week 1, he will be selected in Superflex leagues, but very, very late. Tannehill is one of the least appealing options at quarterback this season. On a run-first offense with a weak supporting cast, he is purely a last-resort QB3 in Superflex leagues.
