Tennessee Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill is coming off his worst season as a Titan despite leading his team to a division title and the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC. With A.J. Brown gone, what is Tannehill’s fantasy football outlook for 2022, and should fantasy managers target him at his ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Ryan Tannehill’s fantasy outlook for 2022
Tannehill was a popular late-round quarterback in 2021 fantasy drafts. He averaged 19 fantasy points per game in 2019 and 22 ppg in 2020 to solidify himself as a legitimate QB1.
Unfortunately, things didn’t go so well in 2021. Tannehill averaged just 16.6 ppg, finishing outside the top 12 quarterbacks. He completed 67.2% of his passes but only threw for 3,734 yards and 21 touchdowns despite playing in all 17 games. While Tannehill did match his career-high of seven rushing touchdowns, it wasn’t enough to make him a QB1 in fantasy.
Just four times last season did Tannehill eclipse 20 fantasy points, and one of them was in Week 18, which doesn’t count for the majority of fantasy leagues.
A lot of things went wrong for Tannehill, which is ironic considering how great of a season the Titans had as a team. Tannehill really struggled with his deep ball, and it certainly didn’t help that A.J. Brown missed four games and was banged up for a couple of others. There was a stretch where Tannehill’s top receivers were Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Marcus Johnson.
Another part of the problem was the Titans’ run-heavy approach. Even with Derrick Henry missing half the season, the Titans were one of just three teams to run more than they threw. In fact, the Titans ran the ball 50% of the time after they lost Henry for the regular season.
While this run-heavy approach is nothing new, Tannehill had an efficient TD rate in his first two seasons in Tennessee (7.7% in 2019 and 6.9% in 2020). His career touchdown rate is 4.7%. Last season, he saw serious regression, throwing a touchdown just 4% of the time, his lowest rate since his rookie season.
How the Titans’ depth chart impacts Ryan Tannehill’s fantasy projection for the season
The game plan for the Titans is set up to be exactly the same in 2022. They’ve certainly done Tannehill no favors. This was a team already in need of wide receiver help, but instead, they traded away their WR1 to the Eagles.
Yes, they drafted a suitable replacement in the first round. However, Treylon Burks is not A.J. Brown. Not as a rookie. The Titans also drafted Kyle Philips in the fifth round, but Day 3 picks rarely make major impacts as rookies.
In free agency, the team signed Austin Hooper, who is at least an upgrade at tight end. They also traded for Robert Woods. While I like Woods, he’s 30 years old and coming off a midseason ACL tear. So even though Tannehill does have more reliable pass catchers this season in terms of quantity, it’s hard to argue losing Brown increases the quality.
The Titans will remain a run-heavy offense
Once again, the Titans will run their offense through Henry. And if the 28-year-old RB with more touches than anyone over the past three seasons breaks down, they will run the same offense with his backups. I just don’t see a path to Tannehill attempting more than 30-32 passes per game, in an absolute best-case scenario.
If Tannehill is going to be a QB1 once again, he’ll have to be efficient with his touchdowns. The Titans scored 42% of their touchdowns on the ground in 2019, 44% in 2020, and 51% last year. If that regresses back to around 40%, Tannehill could crack the top 12. However, I don’t see him ascending much higher than that. He looks like a QB2 in fantasy football this season.
Tannehill’s ADP for 2022
Tannehill’s ADP is, well, nonexistent. There are roughly 192 players drafted in standard-sized 12-team leagues. Tannehill is not among them. He’s going around QB22. In PFN’s consensus 2022 PPR fantasy rankings, Tannehill is sitting at QB22 at 180th overall.
However, our rankings do not include kickers and defense. Therefore, assuming the top 12 kickers and defense are both ahead of him in standard leagues, he would sit 204h overall and outside of the draftable range.
There’s no scenario where Tannehill should be drafted in single quarterback leagues unless you have really deep rosters where everyone selects at least two quarterbacks. In Superflex leagues, every quarterback goes. Tannehill is fine, but I certainly wouldn’t be happy about it.
Tannehill has been a below-average quarterback for all but one and a half seasons. I believe the rest of his career is more indicative of who he is. There are plenty of quarterbacks with more upside than Tannehill. Pass.