As the NFL season approaches, millions of people are turning their attention to fantasy football. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are Russell Wilson’s fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
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Russell Wilson’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Consider the seeming oddity of the rapidness of Wilson’s recent decline. As recently as three years ago, he was the overall QB6 — his ninth consecutive top-11 finish, dating back to his rookie campaign. Even in 2021, Wilson was the QB13 in points per game. A rough year for someone with Wilson’s history, but not necessarily a sign of doom and gloom.
But last year was different. On a new team, in a new system, with his first new head coach since joining the league a decade earlier, Wilson struggled. He endured hamstring and knee injuries in addition to a concussion. He lost his No. 1 RB in the fourth game, and the formerly solid-to-terrific Melvin Gordon III came undone.
Consider the impact on a quarterback who targeted his two lead running backs 30 times in their three full games together. Stretch that out to a full season. And understand that, as well as the aged Latavius Murray played in relief, Javonte Williams alone could have elevated Wilson tremendously.
Then there was the receiving corps. Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy each missed a couple of games. But that goes with the territory. Nothing too unusual. However, Tim Patrick was knocked out for the year in the preseason, while the supposedly ascending Albert Okwuegbunam never materialized as a reliable tight end.
It took six weeks for the Denver Broncos to realize Okwuegbunam wasn’t the answer, and to finally give Greg Dulcich some snaps. On only his second look, Dulcich caught a 39-yard TD pass. But in hindsight, it was too late. The team couldn’t recover from so many key offensive losses.
So before throwing in the towel on Wilson, consider (a) yes, he often looked like he was well past his prime, and (b) with his core offensive personnel back, rookie WR Marvin Mims, plus the arrival of Super Bowl-winning head coach Sean Payton, there’s a path for a turnaround.
Williams’ health will be key, as his continued absence would make Samaje Perine the only RB standing in the way of the team signing someone like Le’Veon Bell.
The fact that the Broncos didn’t draft a running back this year suggests they’re comfortable with their backfield. Still, Williams can be one of the best backs in the NFL. The team needs him — as does Wilson.
Additionally, is Wilson still a dual-threat quarterback? He averaged more rushing yards per game (and more yards per carry) last year vs. 2021. Is he still a threat for 300+ yards on the ground? Fifteen of his 26 career rushing scores have come from 8+ yards out. That degree of versatility is an important part of Wilson’s fantasy repertoire.
Last year, Wilson was the overall QB16 and the QB17 in points per game. In other words, he was the prototypical “middling” fantasy quarterback — someone with bye-week streaming potential in 1QB leagues and a decent enough filler in 2QB and Superflex leagues.
Given the obstacles he faced, it would be tough to envision Wilson doing worse with the team’s outlook appearing more promising heading into this season. He threw for 3,524 yards and only 16 TDs in 15 games. It’s not hard to project 3,800+ and 22+, or somewhere around QB12 or QB13.
While Wilson’s days as an elite or even near-elite quarterback probably are over, he could still flirt with top-12 production if one believes he’s a rebound candidate.
Should You Draft Russell Wilson This Year?
For many years, Wilson was among the first five or six quarterbacks taken in fantasy drafts. Even last summer, there was plenty of hype surrounding this team and what someone with Wilson’s skills could achieve.
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Wilson with a QB18 ADP. Our PFN Consensus Rankings place him at QB18, too. Those are entirely reasonable projections, especially given the comparable top-12 upside of other players valued the same as Wilson — guys like Kyler Murray, Jared Goff, and Derek Carr.
The fact is, when you reach this point in the draft in 1QB leagues, you’re searching for someone you can start with some confidence in Week 1, understanding that you might ditch him for someone else in Week 2. In 2QB/Superflex leagues, you’re probably adding a third and even fourth quarterback to ensure you’re not relying on someone in this tier every game.
So reaching for Wilson isn’t necessarily any wiser than reaching for Murray, Goff, Carr, or others in this group. All of them could be nice gets, and all could easily finish outside the top 16.
If you’re in a very big league (e.g. 16 teams) or in a 2QB/Superflex format, and if Wilson falls outside the top 20, that would be the time to strike. Because it’s not as if Denver can afford to bench Wilson if he struggles early.
It’s Wilson or bust in 2023, and quite possibly for years to come. Payton and his coaching staff will figure out how to get him and this offense back on track. Because, let’s face it, it can’t get much worse.