As we inch toward the new season, the ever-changing NFL landscape has player fantasy values constantly on the move. Whether you’re used to the dynasty platform or are still learning the rules, let’s dive into the latest dynasty fantasy football value of Russell Wilson.
Russell Wilson’s Dynasty Outlook and Value
What to do with Wilson? Even in what was very much a down year in 2021, Wilson still averaged 17.8 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall QB13. At that point, in 10 NFL seasons, Wilson had finished lower than QB13 just once (17.2 ppg, QB17 in 2016).
There were definitely signs that Wilson may be declining, but nothing could’ve prepared the football world for what happened in 2022.
Wilson going to the Denver Broncos was supposed to be the catalyst that elevated this offense to the ranks of the elite. Instead, Wilson wound up being a downgrade on the dynamic duo of Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock.
Throughout his career, Wilson had always been a quarterback who exceeded standard efficiency metrics. After a decade, expecting regression just didn’t make sense. The Seahawks’ run-first offense, combined with Wilson’s superb ability, resulted in his TD rate almost always being higher than normal.
In his career, Wilson has a 5.9% touchdown rate. In 2022, his TD rate was 3.3%, throwing multiple touchdowns just three times in 15 starts.
By way of comparison, 2016 was, by far, the worst season of Wilson’s career (prior to 2022). That year, he still had five games with multiple TD passes. Wilson’s completion percentage fell to 60.5%, also a career worst.
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Part of the reason is his declining deep-ball passing. Wilson has always had a very nice deep ball. He’s been viewed as an excellent downfield passer, but he really hasn’t been particularly good at it for a while now.
In 2018, Wilson had the second-highest deep-ball completion rate in the league. That went to 12th in 2019, 26th in 2020, 22nd in 2021, and 18th in 2022. Meanwhile, he’s still chucking it deep. Last season, Wilson led the NFL in deep-ball attempts and was top five in interceptable passes.
Quarterbacks have down years. It happens. I just can’t remember one — presumably still in his prime — who fell off this quickly and this precipitously. Wilson was making errors that even a high school QB wouldn’t make. From his mechanics to his pre-snap reads to his decisions on who to throw to, Wilson looked like he didn’t know which way was up.
The question fantasy managers must try and answer is whether Wilson can bounce back. Undoubtedly, part of the problem was former head coach Nathaniel Hackett just wasn’t prepared to be an NFL head coach. He orchestrated a Broncos’ offense that was the most anemic in the league. Is Sean Payton the magic elixir that will revive Wilson’s career?
There’s no question that some will think so. But, as I mentioned above, there were signs of decline in 2021. Many of us, myself included, chalked them up to Pete Carroll and Wilson’s finger injury. Perhaps that was in error.
Wilson is a former rushing QB in the purest sense of the term. He averaged 38 rushing yards per game over his first four seasons. After the outlier 2016 season, where he was awful, Wilson bounced back to average 28.4 rushing yards per game over his next four seasons. It was a big part of his game.
Now, it seems like the mobility is gone. Wilson averaged 13.1 rushing yards per game in 2021 and 18.5 in 2022.
Russell Wilson’s Fantasy Ranking
Wilson is now 34 years old. It’s fair to say the modern NFL quarterback isn’t built the same way as quarterbacks of 20+ years ago. While guys like Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers are able to play into their 40s, I can’t think of a single true mobile QB who wasn’t done by his mid-30s.
Michael Vick, Cam Newton, Donovan McNabb, Daunte Culpepper, Randall Cunningham. Not a single one of these quarterbacks played at an effective level beyond age 32/33.
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I’m confident this offense will be better with Payton running the show. But I’m very hesitant to bet on Wilson to be the ultimate outlier when it comes to rushing QBs. If someone out there is valuing Wilson like he will return to the ranks of the mid-QB1s, I’d be happy to have that person take Wilson off my hands.
We have Wilson ranked as if it’s over. He’s currently our QB22 (No. 96 overall) in our dynasty Superflex rankings.
Given the shortage of quality NFL quarterbacks, I hope we’re wrong. I hope Wilson is able to return to even 75% of the guy he was just a few years ago. But fantasy titles aren’t won on hopes and dreams. As a result, I would not advise betting on the outlier and would fade Wilson in dynasty startup drafts.