It’s Week 18, and for fantasy football leagues that are still playing, it means you’re playing for the championship title. You either win, or you don’t — it’s as simple as that.
There are always plenty of questions about who to start and who to sit in your lineups. Below, we’ve provided analysis for every fantasy-relevant running back in every game this weekend.
If you’re looking for all positions, head to our Week 18 Fantasy Football Start-Sit Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Aaron Jones, RB | MIN (at DET)
Week 18 Status: PLAYING
Aaron Jones suffered a quad injury last week, and while he is still expected to suit up, it’s a situation that at least deserves your attention. If you want to fully protect yourself against a late scratch, Cam Akers is the handcuff, though I’d be tempted to think that, in this event, the Vikings heap more responsibilities onto Sam Darnold than asking Akers to do his best Jones impression.
Jones has multiple receptions in six straight and has seen at least four passes thrown his way in four of those games. His versatility is being used by Kevin O’Connell, and we love to see it, especially when the splash plays on the ground have disappeared (five straight games without a rush gaining more than 15 yards).
I’d be awfully surprised if we got the 17-touch, 116-yard, one-touchdown showing that we got from Jones against the Lions back in Week 7 again, but 15-ish touches with the potential for a nice receiving game very much makes for a logical projection this week so long as he can avoid a setback.
I like Detroit to win (and cover) this game, something that hurts Jones’ projection a bit but doesn’t knock him outside of my RB2 tier.
Alexander Mattison, RB | LV (vs. LAC)
Alexander Mattison last averaged 4.0 yards per carry in 2020 while with the Vikings, so his 3.2 mark this season shouldn’t be overly surprising.
He hasn’t had a 15-yard carry since September, and the fact that this team was willing to flip Ameer Abdullah from a third-down specialist to a full-blown bellcow instead of handing the keys to Mattison should be all you need to see to fade.
I’m not in a hurry to play any Raiders outside of Brock Bowers, and I don’t make a habit of playing fringe options against the Chargers — when both of those instances occur in a single game, there really isn’t a decision to be made.
Alvin Kamara, RB | NO (at TB)
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, January 5
Kamara is inactive for today's game.
Alvin Kamara has had a highly productive season (nine top-15 finishes) and is currently sitting at 1.2% over expectation for the year, his best mark since 2021. But the groin injury that has cost him time recently certainly has the potential to hold him out this week, thus leaving you without a big part of your regular-season run in your biggest matchup of the year.
Kamara will turn 30 years old in July, and while the pass-catching skills have aged well, I continue to think that we are on borrowed time with him as a weekly asset. The rushing efficiency is fleeting, to say the least (a career-high 20.2% of his carries have failed to gain yardage this season). If Kendre Miller can provide this franchise with confidence that he can be a two-down back, we could be looking at a hit-and-miss RB in an average offense that relies on check-down passes.
That’s not to say Kamara won’t be usable in 2025 (the Saints have an out if they want it in his backloaded contract), but I think there’s a good chance his ADP reflects more name value than projectable production this offseason.
Ameer Abdullah, RB | LV (vs. LAC)
Updated at 2:55 ET on Sunday, January 5
Abdullah is inactive for today's game.
Abdullah has three straight top-15 finishes at the position and is coming off the first 100-yard rushing game of his career. He left last week’s win over the Saints early with a foot injury, and that’s something to be tracked, but as of now, I’m penciling him in for the lead role. Unfortunately, he’s out due to injury, and that will now go to Alexander Mattison.
Leaders in percentage of carries gaining 5+ yards, Weeks 16-17 (min. 25 carries):
- Abdullah: 59.3%
- Derrick Henry: 52.9%
- Jahmyr Gibbs: 51.2%
- De’Von Achane: 48.1%
Of course, the value of that role can be debated. The Chargers are in a spot where they want to win, and they own the eighth-best EPA rush defense.
Abdullah being penciled in for 12+ carries and the primary role in the passing game would have been enough to justify starting him. You just would have had to be aware that banking on a repeat of Week 17 is unlikely.
Audric Estimé, RB | DEN (vs. KC)
I think there’s a world in which Audric Estimé is a rosterable handcuff next season, but we can deal with that when we get there — he doesn’t matter right now. He led the Broncos with 53 rushing yards (14 carries) in the Week 10 loss at Arrowhead, though weekly production/role has yet to prove sticky in Sean Payton’s offense this season.
Estimé is being used ahead of Javonte Williams on the ground but without the sort of splash-play potential that Jaleel McLaughlin has flashed regularly. When this game kicks off, we will be more than two months removed from the rookie’s last run that gained more than 10 yards, and if the volume is going to be an obstacle, the lack of chunk gains is damning.
I anticipate this backfield being more straightforward in 2025 than it has been at any point this season, and that means not losing track of Estimé, even after a very underwhelming first season. Betting on this offense is something I’m not going to hesitate to do in the mid to late rounds this summer, and Estimé is a part of that.
Bijan Robinson, RB | ATL (vs. CAR)
Bijan Robinson has four games this season with multiple rushing TD, tied for the most in a season in Falcons history. He’s reached 20 touches in five straight games and is finally being used in the fashion that we’ve been begging for.
Enjoy the ride — it’s going to be expensive to get into the Robinson business again next season.
We need a greater sample before reading too far into these splits, but it’s never too early to start looking:
- Desmond Ridder under center: 2.71 yards per carry before contact
- Kirk Cousins under center: 2.99 yards per carry before contact
- Michael Penix Jr. under center: 3.13 yards per carry before contact
We are looking at a player who was taken with the eighth pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, and I think it’s plenty reasonable to think he goes higher than that in fantasy drafts for the foreseeable future. His shifty nature in space and volume role on the ground puts him on a Christian McCaffrey-like path, a name that I use rarely when it comes to comparing usage.
Blake Corum, RB | LAR (vs. SEA)
Blake Corum gets his drive or two a game, and that’s cute. It’s also infuriating for those holding Kyren Williams’ bags, but that’s all it is. It’s just a wrinkle, not a feature.
The rookie has posted a sub-20% snap share in four consecutive games. That’s been the case for the bulk of the season, outside of an outlier Week 13 win against the Saints in which he was on the field for 32.7% of the Rams’ plays.
Corum has yet to clear eight touches in a game this year. While holding a handcuff was a logical strategy up to this point, you’re in a go-for-it mode now. You don’t need to cut ties with Corum, but if you’re trying to maximize the number of Flex options you have in a do-or-die situation, I’d much rather use that roster spot for a home-run-hitting receiver or a secondary RB where there are questions about the starter.
As things stand right now, we have no reason to think that Williams will see anything less than his standard workload this week, which means that Corum doesn’t project as a usable piece.
Braelon Allen, RB | NYJ (vs. MIA)
Braelon Allen is rarely getting 10 touches in this Jets offense, and I fear that is going to be the norm not just for this game but moving forward.
His 0.77 PPR points per touch this season don’t jump off the screen, but we don’t have nearly enough of a sample to make sweeping claims. It appears that Aaron Rodgers trusts Breece Hall; that has me projecting Allen as nothing more than an average handcuff should the four-time MVP stay in town.
Breece Hall, RB | NYJ (vs. MIA)
Breece Hall’s points per touch are down 7.8% from a season ago, clearly a disappointment based on expectations. He missed the first game against the Dolphins and yet the Jets relied on the ground game, so there is hope for volume in this spot. In the Week 14 meeting, Brealon Allen and Isaiah Davis combined for …
- 21 carries
- 83 rushing yards
- One TD
- 28.2% target share
If Hall can walk into 70% of that role, we are looking at a top-12 running back. I’m not that optimistic, but I do think he gets the lion’s share of the work this week, and that lands him as a starter in all formats.
Brian Robinson Jr., RB | WAS (at DAL)
Brian Robinson Jr. came out of the gates flying this season, ranking as the 14th most valuable running back (total PPR points) through the first four weeks. Since then, however, Robinson has only one finish as RB14 or better, struggling with health and inefficiency in the process (44.2% below expectations over the past three weeks).
The Commanders want to win this game, but I think they are plenty happy to put the ball in Jayden Daniels’ hands and take their chances. In Week 12 against Dallas, Washington’s running backs combined for 57 yards on 17 carries, and that’s not going to cut it.
Robinson has multiple receptions in three straight games; that is his path to overachieving. We saw some growth in his skill set last season, but it largely has vanished this season. I think we are looking at 15 carries and a few targets, a role in a plus matchup that slides Robinson into my RB2 tier, even given the recent struggles.
Bucky Irving, RB | TB (vs. NO)
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, January 5
Irving is active for today's game.
Bucky Irving has three straight games with 15+ carries and multiple catches — the only thing I find myself thinking following every Tampa Bay game is “Why did they not give him the ball even more?”
Last week, he joined Saquon Barkley as the only player this season with BOTH a 30+ yard run and 30+ yard reception in multiple games. Being on that sort of shortlist is impressive, and he looks the part with each passing week.
The Saints’ rush defense ranks 30th in both EPA and success rate — is it possible that we haven’t seen his best? You’re playing Irving anywhere you can and loving the ability to do so. He’s going to be an expensive back this summer, and I’m tempted to pay whatever price the market determines is acceptable.
I love what Irving brings to the table, and that feeling is only magnified when the Bucs are a heavy favorite, something that caps Rachaad White’s snaps.
Chuba Hubbard, RB | CAR (at ATL)
It was discovered on Friday that Chuba Hubbard is dealing with a Grade 2 calf strain. With nothing to gain, the team has elected to shut him down.
It’s been a phenomenal season for the 25-year-old back. While he won’t have a chance to finish things, he did enough to earn a raise in addition to our trust in 2025. This season, Hubbard posted seven top-10 PPR finishes, blending volume (19.5 touches per game) with efficiency (4.8 yards per carry and a 79.6% catch rate) and giving Bryce Young a level of balance that allowed him to show signs of upside.
With Jonathon Brooks sidelined for the foreseeable future, Hubbard will enter next season with a clear feature role and thus deserving of a top-20 ranking at the minimum.
I’m going to like him more than that due to my liking of this offense’s upside. I’m mentally prepared to be watching plenty of Panthers games next fall.
D’Andre Swift, RB | CHI (at GB)
D’Andre Swift has the lead role in this backfield without much competition, but because of the game scripts, he’s reached 15 carries just once in his past seven games. There is no denying that we are in danger of seeing that risk extend through this week with the Packers playing for seeding and the Bears playing for — well, nothing.
Swift had three top-10 finishes in succession earlier this season (Week 4-6), and I’m cautiously optimistic that we can see more spikes in 2025 as Caleb Williams continues to grow.
In Week 11, Swift posted 84 yards against the Packers. He added a rushing touchdown, and that allowed him to post a nice showing — remove the touchdown points and you’re right around 10 PPR points, something that I think makes for a better projection than the 16.4 he put on the board in the first meeting.
Devin Singletary, RB | NYG (at PHI)
Devin Singletary’s role alone is hardly rosterable in any situation, and when you consider that it comes behind a weak offensive line with no real (sustainable) passing game, he’s not someone who should be even close to your radar.
New York’s secondary back hasn’t reached 10 carries in a game since September, and the only way for me to feel even remotely good about any running back in these bottom-of-the-barrel offenses is extreme and reliable volume.
De’Von Achane, RB | MIA (at NYJ)
De’Von Achane might be as quarterback-dependent of a running back as there is in the NFL:
- With Tua Tagovailoa: 18.6% production over expectation, 1.2 points per touch, and 24.1% on-field target share
- With Tyler Huntley: 23.1% production under expectation, 0.5 points per touch, and 11.5% on-field target share
With Huntley under center, Achane doesn’t have a red-zone target, sees his aDOT more than triple, and faces a loaded box more often. He’s too talented to bench, but if this is the Huntley show again, you’re watching with your eyes closed.
If Tagovailoa is cleared to play, you should have zero concerns about gobbling up additional shares in addition to what you already hold in season-long formats. The Dolphins went with a pass-heavy script in the first meeting with the Jets (Week 14), which is just fine if QB1 is active.
Gus Edwards, RB | LAC (at LV)
Updated at 2:55 ET on Sunday, January 5
Edwards is inactive for today's game.
Gus Edwards did not play last week with an ankle injury, and I’m not sure the Chargers will rush him back (3.6 yards per carry this season).
Edwards had a weird 43-yard carry late in Week 16 against the Broncos. Remove that, and we are looking at a player averaging 3.2 ypc with nearly as many targets (five) as receiving yards (six).
Touchdowns were the driving force behind Edwards’ value last season, and while it was risky to bank on last season, he was playing for a potent offense.
These Chargers can score if called upon, but that’s not their design, and in a committee situation, Edwards’ health is not something I’m tracking closely this week.
You can find better options.
Isiah Pacheco, RB | KC (at DEN)
Updated at 2:55 ET on Sunday, January 5
Pacheco is inactive for today's game.
Isiah Pacheco is very clearly being managed, and I highly doubt that a smart organization like the Chiefs relents on that plan in a meaningless Week 18 game.
Isiah Pacheco’s usage since his return:
- Week 14: 47.7% snap share and 16 touches
- Week 15: 37.3% snap share and 14 touches
- Week 16: 32.9% snap share and 10 touches
- Week 17: 34.5% snap share and six touches
I think there may be a nice buying window for Pacheco in playoff-based fantasy leagues, and I’d encourage you to go that route — unless you play in such a league with me. If that’s the case, carry on.
Isaac Guerendo, RB | SF (at ARI)
Updated at 2:55 ET on Sunday, January 5
Guerendo is active for today's game.
Issac Guerendo was able to suit up on Monday night, and as expected, was the only 49ers running back to get handed the ball. He finished with nine carries for 34 yards, but a 40-yard catch on a perfect throw from Brock Purdy helped save the day (four catches for 65 yards).
Christian McCaffrey is obviously the man in town, but I like what I’ve seen from Guerendo this season, and at the very least, he should be a prioritized handcuff in 2025.
Jordan Mason ran for 89 yards on 14 carries in Week 5 against the Cardinals, a level of production that I think is possible for Guerendo this week. The quality of his touches is currently a question mark with Purdy banged up, but I think the sheer volume should be enough to get him into your lineup, with the name under center further dictating the upside case.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB | DET (vs. MIN)
Jahmyr Gibbs is now one touchdown away from tying the franchise record for total TDs in a season (Jamaal Williams and Barry Sanders currently hold the mark with 17). Gibbs’ 30-yard score on Monday night was just a snapshot of what he can do — the vision, the cut, the speed.
With David Montgomery out, we are at least getting the pleasure of seeing what an unleashed version of Gibbs looks like — and it looks like maybe the best RB in the sport.
Gibbs had no trouble punishing this Minnesota defense in Week 7 (160 yards and two touchdowns), a game in which Montgomery was fully healthy. Detroit needs to play defense with its offense these days, and while Gibbs isn’t a traditional grinding back, the shortcomings of the Lions’ defense make touch counts like what we saw last week (22) the norm more than the exception.
Jaleel McLaughlin, RB | DEN (vs. KC)
This is why you pay attention to trends all season long, even if your matchups are meaningless — breadcrumbs. Jaleel McLaughlin has continued to look like the best back Denver has on its roster, and while the snap share isn’t reflecting that, everything else does.
Broncos RBs production, Week 17:
- Javonte Williams: 36.7% snap share and zero carries
- Audric Estimé: 30% snap share and 0% of carries gained 10+ yards
- Jaleel McLaughlin: 23.3% snap share and 40% of carries gained 10+ yards
That’s right. In a win-and-in situation, Denver’s RB leader in snaps played wasn’t trusted with a single carry while the third man on the totem pole was making chunk plays left and right.
The second-year back out of Youngstown State gained yardage on all 10 of his totes last week and looks like a big play waiting to happen every time he is handed the ball. I never want to paint with a broad brush at this point, but McLaughlin is very likely to be on my list of players to whom I have the highest exposure in 2025.
Williams is playing out the final year of his contract, and I’ve got confidence that his passing-game usage can be absorbed by McLaughlin (86.9% career catch rate). He’s not likely to be the second coming of Alvin Kamara, but we know that Sean Payton’s offense can support a very strong fantasy backfield. With the pieces seemingly falling into place, I’m going to be investing earlier than most find comfortable here.
Before we get to those glory days, however, we have to deal with one more week of this nonsensical three-way committee that renders all parties unreliable. McLaughlin, for maybe the seventh straight game, will be my highest-ranked Bronco RB. That’s enough to warrant Flex conversation in what is always a tough-to-judge Week 18.
James Conner, RB | ARI (vs. SF)
Updated at 2:55 ET on Sunday, January 5
Conner is out for today's game.
James Conner entered Week 17 banged up and never returned to action (knee) after exiting in the first half of Saturday’s loss in Los Angeles. Postgame reporting suggested that the veteran back was able and willing to return to the game while the coaching staff ruled against it (Michael Carter finished with 70 yards on 13 carries).
If this were in the middle of the season, I’d be fine betting on an experienced back like this who knows his body. But at this point in a lost season, I believe that the cautious approach we saw last week repeats this week.
Conner has over 1,600 touches for his career, and that’s a concern. But with volume still in his favor and him posting his best points-per-touch season since 2021, there’s reason to think that he’s a viable option entering 2025.
I’m pessimistic that we get much in the way of value this weekend, but he is one of the long-in-the-tooth RBs that I’ll be willing to have shares of next year.
James Cook, RB | BUF (at NE)
James Cook entered 2024 with four rushing touchdowns — he now has three separate three-game stretches this season in which he’s run for four scores. Cook has been nothing short of great this season, and it would seem that he’s mastered the art of running next to Josh Allen.
Through 17 weeks this season, his yards per carry before first contact is up 20.7% from a season ago, a sign that he is making strong reads. Cook dominated the Patriots in Week 16 (126 yards and two scores on 14 touches), and I’d be thrilled about his prospects to repeat this week if I was sold that he’d be used in typical fashion, but I’m not.
The Bills have nothing to play for, and given this franchise’s history, I suspect that they will take no risks when it comes to the health of their primary players heading into the postseason.
Javonte Williams, RB | DEN (vs. KC)
At this point, it’s clear that the Broncos are sold on a three-headed committee. Williams has led the backfield in snap share in consecutive games, and he has a whopping 13 touches total to show for it.
Over the past month, the pending free agent has more catches (11) than rush attempts (10), putting him in a tough spot to be consistent. There are spots where a PPR manager can identify that role as advantageous due to the projected game script, something that I don’t think will be the case this week given the Chiefs’ lack of motivation.
Jaleel McLaughlin has passed the statistical and eye tests that no one else in this backfield has, and he projects as the better back in a positive game script if not the better option in all scenarios. Williams is only 24 years old, and while we are now looking at two straight inefficient seasons, his growth as a pass catcher and experience as a bell cow could result in a 2025 bounce-back campaign — but not in Denver and not likely this weekend.
McLaughlin is going to be a heavy stance for me heading into next season and is my preferred Bronco back this week. That said, playing any of them this week, even in a game that they need, is risky. Williams’ PPR role can get him into an ugly Flex discussion but not with much confidence.
Jaylen Wright, RB | MIA (at NYJ)
It’s fair to question how Jaylen Wright has been used this season (65 touches), but that’s not going to change anything. I’m of the belief that we could see him carve out a Jaylen Warren-like role next season, but that’s a projection to battle in June. He’s not helping you win a title over the next few weeks unless Miami elects to call his number if/when mathematically eliminated from postseason contention.
Joe Mixon, RB | HOU (at TEN)
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, January 5
Mixon is active for today's game.
The Ravens were all over Joe Mixon on Christmas Day (nine carries for 26 yards), a disaster for fantasy managers who have used this strong season as a way to vault to the top of their standings.
That makes it three straight games without a touchdown for Mixon, struggles that are highlighted even more by him averaging just 3.0 yards per carry over that stretch (39.8% production under expectation).
The Texans could always opt to manage their veteran back, but it’s not my day to run the team. If we don’t get word that a limited role is likely, I think you’re fine to plug Mixon in as an RB2. He earned a 19.4% target share in the first meeting with the Titans (Week 12) and has recorded multiple red-zone touches in not one, not two, but 11 straight games.
I have my concerns about Mixon for next season, but he’s made it this far. If he’s set to assume his standard role this week, I think you plug him in.
Jonathan Taylor, RB | IND (vs. JAX)
Jonathan Taylor is absolutely cooking at the perfect time for fantasy managers. He can become the seventh player ever with 125 rush yards and multiple rush TD in three straight games, joining:
- Chris Johnson (2009)
- Larry Johnson (2005)
- Clinton Portis (2003)
- Ricky Williams (2002)
- Mike Anderson (2000)
- Earl Campbell (1980)
In those two games, he’s run for a cool 343 yards and five scores. The late-season peak is great to see, and the team is clearly confident in his health (22+ carries in four straight) — we have no reason to doubt his usage this week. Neither the Colts nor the Jags have anything to play for, making anything possible in terms of how touches are distributed. But betting against Taylor is a losing wager right now, especially when facing the 10th-worst run defense by success rate.
Josh Jacobs, RB | GB (vs. CHI)
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, January 5
Jacobs is active for today's game.
Josh Jacobs has a rushing score in seven straight games, tying Paul Hornung’s franchise record. If the Packers have their way, he will break that record in a big way on Sunday. This game certainly won’t be the featured NFC North battle of the week, but the difference between being the sixth and the seventh seed is significant, so I think we see what we’ve seen from the Packers all season long – a lot of Jacobs early and often.
Through 17 weeks, Jacobs is the only player with 80+ first-quarter carries … he has 102. He racked up 134 yards and a touchdown on 22 touches in the first meeting with the Bears and is coming off of a Week 17 effort in which he gained yardage on a season-best 94.1% of his carries.
Jacobs is a real threat to break the DFS main slate, and you should feel great about having redraft exposure if you still have games to play on that end.
Kareem Hunt, RB | KC (at DEN)
Updated at 2:55 ET on Sunday, January 5
Hunt is active for today's game (Not expected to play).
As mentioned, the Chiefs are locked into the AFC’s top seed, and that means we could see the usage spread out all over the place to irregular names. As for Kareem Hunt, he won’t be playing in Week 18.
Hunt has run for a score and is operating as the head of a committee with Isiah Pacheco right now, something that feels more like a way to get to the finish line of the regular season than it does a sustainable plan for the NFL’s second season.
With Pacheco back in the mix, Hunt is averaging 10.2 touches per game. I view that as a ceiling case, and that’s not the type of ceiling I make a habit of investing in.
Hunt’s snap share, last four games:
- Week 14 at Chargers: 30.8%
- Week 15 at Browns: 37.3%
- Week 16 vs. Texans: 45.7%
- Week 17 at Steelers: 48.3%
Kansas City struggled to move the ball on the ground in the first meeting with Denver (Hunt: 14 carries for 35 yards), making this a tough backfield to feel good about the backups.
Realistically, I’m fading the NFL’s best team in all regards this weekend.
Kendre Miller, RB | NO (at TB)
Last Updated Sunday at 11:30 AM
Miller is inactive for today's game
Kendre Miller is in concussion protocol, and while there was a chance he cleared in time, it wouldn’t have impacted your Week 18 decision-making in a significant way.
Miller has shown limited versatility in his limited NFL sample size and has not had a 20-yard gain on 80 career rush attempts. This offense is as inept as any in the league at this point in the season, and I don’t see that changing against a highly driven Buccaneers team.
The Saints brought in Clyde Edwards-Helaire ahead of Week 16, giving them a proven NFL player to further subtract from the value of Miller should he have been cleared in time for this game. I’m not sure that the running game in New Orleans holds any value. I’m even less confident in my ability to accurately assign the touch distributions, even if Miller were healthy.
You’re avoiding this offense at all costs; it really is that simple.
Kenneth Walker III, RB | SEA (at LAR)
The Seahawks placed Kenneth Walker III (ankle) on injured reserve last week, ending a season that, in my opinion, has underwhelmed.
After clearing 18 PPR points in four of the first seven weeks this season, Walker didn’t reach 15 PPR points in a single game again. After that initial surge, his fantasy production was 29.6% below expectation as he struggled to generate the splash plays that we’ve come to associate with him.
Walker’s rush rates by season:
- 2022: 43.9% of carries vs. loaded box and 12.7% of carries gained 10+ yards
- 2023: 43.4% of carries vs. loaded box and 11% of carries gained 10+ yards
- 2024: 33.3% of carries vs. loaded box and 8.5% of carries gained 10+ yards
These rates scare me, but they don’t terrify me the way they would if Zach Charbonnet seized the opportunity (remove one outlier carry, and his yards per carry drops 9.3% down to 3.8 this season).
I’m not going to go as far as to say that I’m encouraged by 2024, but the usage in a passing game that is trending toward conservative with Jaxon Smith-Njigba ascending has me optimistic.
Walker’s pass-catching rates by season:
2022: 11.9% on-field target share and a 2.7% red-zone target rate
2023: 15.2% on-field target share and a 13% red-zone target rate
2024: 20.2% on-field target share and a 30.8% red-zone target rate
With Geno Smith under center for another year, I think we can pencil in a healthy version of Walker as the RB1 in Seattle and a weekly fantasy lineup lock – you just invest with eyes wide open to the fact that Walker has missed multiple games in all three of his NFL seasons.
Kimani Vidal, RB | LAC (at LV)
Kimani Vidal has yet to clear eight touches in a game this season, and given the number of injuries that have taken place in this backfield, it’s clear that the team doesn’t intend to give this sixth-round pick much runway this season.
Chargers RBs Week 17 participation rates:
- J.K. Dobbins: 53.2% snap share and 14.1 expected points
- Hassan Haskins: 35.1% snap share and 5.6 expected points
- Vidal: 11.7% snap share and 5.3 expected points
We will need to see more versatility from Vidal (held without a reception in three of nine appearances) before assuming that he is a rosterable player next season, but this is a good team with a need for backfield stability – the situation could well present itself for Vidal to be a name of note for 2025.
Kyren Williams, RB | LAR (vs. SEA)
Updated at 2:55 ET on Sunday, January 5
Williams is inactive for today's game.
Over the past 445 days, Kyren Williams has played in 23 regular season games; only once over that stretch did he finish a contest without either 20+ touches or a rushing touchdown.
He didn’t do much with a lot on the ground in the Week 9 meeting with the Seahawks (22 carries for 69 yards and no scores), but you take that volume and take your chances. The Seahawks are a below-average run defense in terms of yards allowed both before and after contact, making them vulnerable to high-volume backs.
Williams might not have a 20-yard run since Thanksgiving, but he’s one of the few who can volume his way past flaws. I’m generally against betting on a profile like this – that’s not the case here.
If Williams were playing this week, you would have been locking him in. For those looking ahead to 2025, I see no reason not to project another 1,100+ rushing yards and 14+ touchdowns next season.
Miles Sanders, RB | CAR (at ATL)
Last Updated Sunday at 11:30 AM
Sanders is active for today's game
Miles Sanders (ankle) averaged 3.3 yards per carry last season and wasn’t efficient this year in his limited work before landing on IR (3.7 yards per carry on 38 carries) ahead of Week 11.
Chuba Hubbard vacates plenty of volume, but how valuable is this role really? Hubbard has produced below expectations on a per-touch basis, and if the touch distribution is unknown, assigning value to any backup RB is a risk I’m not willing to take.
The scoring equity is limited in this Carolina offense as is, and that certainly doesn’t change when playing a motivated Falcons team looking to win the division. Sanders has scored just twice on 215 touches with the franchise; if he can’t add to that total, you’re swimming upstream to mine top-30 value from anyone in this backfield.
Rachaad White, RB | TB (vs. NO)
Let’s call it what it is: Rachaad White is a complementary back. He was fantasy gold last season and at points through the first half of the season, but those days are very much behind us with the Bucky Irving era officially underway.
Buccaneers RBs Week 17 participation rates:
- Bucky Irving: 54.1% snap share and 20.2 expected points
- White: 36.5% snap share and 4.6 expected points
- Sean Tucker: 20.3% snap share and 5.5 expected points
Over the past two weeks, White has as many targets as carries (nine), and while I think he holds value in the right spots (a spot that we might get access to during the postseason), I don’t think this is one of those spots with the Bucs installed as a 13.5-point favorite.
The Saints haven’t reached 20 points in a game since coming out of their Week 12 bye and are unlikely to compete at a high level this week. White is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry this season when not facing the Panthers or Falcons this season — neither of those teams are on the opposing sideline this week, so in a run-centric script, give me all of Irving’s touches and nothing but scraps for White.
Raheem Blackshear, RB | CAR (at ATL)
It was tough to get a feel for this Carolina backfield sans Chuba Hubbard last week in a 34-point loss, but the final product was about what you would have guessed.
Nada.
As a team, the Panthers ran 13 times for 39 yards. Their longest rush against the Bucs was eight yards; if that is going to be the case, I really don’t care who is getting the work.
Raheem Blackshear led the way with eight carries (20 yards) and projects as my favorite this week, but that still lands him a ways from mattering in most formats, especially with Miles Sanders on the mend.
Hubbard had success in this matchup back in Week 6 (18 carries for 92 yards with five catches for good measure). I’d be surprised if this backfield as a whole got to half of that production.
Raheem Mostert, RB | MIA (at NYJ)
Raheem Mostert has multiple catches in each of his past four games, but he hasn’t cleared eight carries in a game in two months. If Miami is going to get this must-win game, it’s going to funnel the touches just about anywhere else.
Mostert is a good reminder to us all to judge every season as its own entity. None of his touchdowns from last season were ever going to matter this season, and with Jaylen Wright in the fold, we should have listened more to what this franchise was telling us.
Ray Davis, RB | BUF (at NE)
James Cook has had a tremendous season, and that is why Ray Davis is a viable option this week, one in which I expect Cook to be significantly limited if not sat down altogether.
Davis hasn’t shown much of late (18 carries for 36 yards over his past four games), but he’s caught 15 of 16 targets this season and has a physical approach that could be counted on heavily if/when the regulars take a seat.
Ty Johnson has been more of a factor lately and will be involved, but he’s averaging just 1.7 carries per target this season. If this turns into a full-game committee with Davis on the plus side, I could see him returning viable RB2 production in what might be an ugly game in terms of fantasy production.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB | NE (vs. BUF)
Rumors swirled pre-game that the Patriots were going to send a message about ball security and bench Rhamondre Stevenson for the Week 17 game with the Chargers.
He then got the first carry of the game and didn’t fumble.
He then accounted for one of the final 19 Patriots rush attempts.
So, no, he technically wasn’t “benched” off the hop, but he was certainly phased out, and this could turn into a difficult situation. Stevenson still has four years left on his deal (two until the team has so much as an out), but we have little proof that he is in good standing or a good fit for this Drake Maye offense — the once versatile threat has failed to catch more than a single pass in three straight (and four of his past five) games.
He lost a fumble in this matchup back in Week 16, but he also ran hard (60 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries). Was last week the sending of a message or a sign of things to come?
The fact that failing to reach 10 touches feels more likely than clearing 15 is reason enough for me to consider just about any reasonable piece on a team fighting for something as a more favorable Flex play than this downward-trending Patriot.
Rico Dowdle, RB | DAL (vs. WAS)
That’s now six straight games with over 100 rushing yards or at least three catches for Rico Dowdle. I’ve largely been impressed with what Dowdle has put on tape this season and will be bullish on him next season as a result. His 17-game pace since Week 12, when this franchise committed to him:
- 340 carries
- 32 catches
- 1,899 total yards
This is a fine matchup, and if Dallas wants to play spoiler, Dowdle is their best path to doing that (Week 12 at Washington: 22 touches for 98 yards). The limitations of his fantasy profile are more a product of the team he plays for than anything — Dallas ranks 22nd in red-zone drives this season (2.75 per game), one season after pacing the league in that stat (4.18).
Roschon Johnson, RB | CHI (at GB)
Roschon Johnson is averaging 2.8 yards per carry this season and has been held without a 10-yard rush or a 20-yard touch. This man has done one thing well this season and only one thing …
Johnson’s PPR point distribution, 2024:
- Scored from the one-yard line: 36.6 points
- Scored elsewhere: 33.9 points
If you have a model that predicts how often a team will be tackled on the one-yard line and it’s screaming at you, you’re playing Johnson. Assuming you don’t have that crystal ball, you shouldn’t be interested.
Saquon Barkley, RB | PHI (vs. NYG)
Last Updated Sunday at 11:30 AM
Barkley is inactive for today's game as the Eagles are resting starters.
Saquon Barkley needs 101 rushing yards to set the single-season record — he’s done that in a half of action five times this season (including the second half in Week 7 against these Giants).
This case would have been pretty straightforward if Barkley was playing on Sunday — he would have deserved to to be locked into lineups as, for once, the primary goal of both fantasy managers and an NFL team will align.
But since Barkley is sitting, I’m not overly interested in the surrounding pieces. I suppose if Will Shipley were to sit, Kenneth Gainwell’s path to holding Flex value would be reasonably clear, but that’s a low-ceiling play in a game that I don’t see having much in the way of scoring chances.
Tank Bigsby, RB | JAX (at IND)
Tank Bigsby has looked like the more appealing fantasy option than Travis Etienne Jr. more often than not this season, but the upside in a very limited offense is capped when both are on the field.
Bigsby has cleared 12 carries in a game just once since the beginning of November and he hasn’t had a 20-yard rush since consecutive games with a 50+ yard spurt in Weeks 4-5. On the bright side, he turned 13 carries into 101 yards and a pair of touchdowns when these teams met in Week 5 (Etienne: six carries for 17 yards), something that should at least earn him the first shot at them this week.
That said, the Colts’ run defense is much improved, and we just saw them shut down a limited Giants offense that they could load the box against. I’ve got concerns about efficiency in this spot; given that we haven’t seen much in the way of consistent volume in Jacksonville, it’s hard to count on either Bigsby or Etienne with any level of confidence.
I prefer Bigsby this week, but you’re taking on an awful lot of risk.
Tony Pollard, RB | TEN (vs. HOU)
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, January 5
Pollard is active for today's game.
Tony Pollard was battling an ankle injury all of last week and then came down with the flu, a combination of events that prevented him from taking the field in Jacksonville.
His role has been very fantasy-friendly of late (17+ carries or 4+ targets in each of his past five appearances), but with the team not playing for anything and committed to Pollard for a $5.99 million base salary next season, it seems unlikely that they overextend him this weekend if he’s active at all.
Layered on top of the risk that comes with Pollard is the fact that this team is motivated to get an extended look at Tyjae Spears (two more years left on his contract). This situation is a bit cloudy at the moment, but you’ll want to keep tabs — Pollard carried 24 times for 119 yards and a score alongside a 20% target share at Houston in Week 12.
Travis Etienne Jr., RB | JAX (at IND)
I’m a man of data. I approach life with the idea that with increased information comes increased confidence.
I’ve been in this industry for over a decade, and this Jacksonville backfield has me questioning everything.
Week 9:
Travis Etienne Jr.: 31.4% of snaps
Tank Bigsby: 54.9% of snaps
Week 10:
Etienne: 67.4% of snaps
Bigsby: 23.3% of snaps
Week 13:
Etienne: 52.2% of snaps
Bigsby: 46.3% of snaps
Week 14:
Etienne: 48.3% of snaps
Bigsby: 51.7% of snaps
Week 15:
Etienne: 70.1% of snaps
Bigsby: 28.6% of snaps
Week 16:
Etienne: 50.8% of snaps
Bigsby: 29.5% of snaps
Week 17:
Etienne: 47.4% of snaps
Bigsby: 40.4% of snaps
We got a commitment from this team back in Week 15, seemingly out of nowhere, and they clearly felt bad about giving us a good feel for this situation, so now they are back to dividing a tiny pie multiple ways.
Last week, Etienne produced 33% under expectation — and he was the more effective of the two (Bigsby: -52.9%). Committees are a pain in any situation, but in an offense that has cleared 20 points just once in their past seven games, it’s simply not worth the effort to maybe guess right.
Trey Benson, RB | ARI (vs. SF)
Trey Benson was placed on injured reserve on December 31, which will end his rookie season.
There’s certainly a case to be made for Benson to be among the top five handcuff running backs next season, and I’ll happily scoop up shares late if the opportunity presents itself.
Tyjae Spears, RB | TEN (vs. HOU)
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, January 5
Spears is inactive for today's game.
Tyjae Spears filled in for Tony Pollard (ankle) last week and was treated like a true bellcow — at least, that is, before he got his bell rung.
Against the Jags, Spears had 23 touches (103 yards) before getting hurt in the third quarter. He opened the work week with his status up in the air with a minor positive lean, while Pollard began set to return to action for what amounts to a meaningless game for all involved.
The Titans are playing it safe, and Spears will be out in Week 18. It makes all the sense in the world to be cautious — they have him on his rookie contract for another two seasons.
With Spears inactive, Pollard can be started if you don’t have any other options.
Tyler Allgeier, RB | ATL (vs. CAR)
Tyler Allgeier has 11 single-digit carry games this season and is pretty clearly Robin to Bijan Robinson’s Batman.
At this point, he’s probably less than a “Robin,” but my movie knowledge is very limited, so that’s the best I’ve got for you.
In Week 6’s meeting with the Panthers, this was much more of a committee situation. Allgeier out-carried Robinson and he led the team with 105 rushing yards, a role that is very much a thing of the past. Atlanta has come around to the idea of Robinson being the focal point of its offense, and I can’t imagine that changes in a must-win spot.
Allgeier has caught all 11 of his targets; that’s great, but just 86 routes run through 17 weeks is more concerning than the perfect catch rate is encouraging. He’ll again rank as an elite handcuff in 2025, nothing more.
Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB | NYG (at PHI)
Tyrone Tracy Jr. has made it clear that he is the man of the present and future when it comes to this New York backfield, but if this offense doesn’t grow around him and Malik Nabers, it may not matter.
He was handed the rock 20 times against the Colts last week and managed to pick up just 59 yards. He failed to gain yardage on seven of his carries, and if not for an outlier 20-yard gain, that ugly stat line gets far worse.
Tracy’s grade in our custom elusive rating metric has dipped over the past month, and that could symbolize a rookie wall. It could also point to a team that has generally thrown in the towel around him.
I think you can get away with Flexing Tracy for his volume this week, especially if you believe that it’ll come against second-string defenders like I do, but I can’t go much higher than that in my rankings given the overall state of this New York offense.
Zach Charbonnet, RB | SEA (at LAR)
Zach Charbonnet is getting an extended run as the lead man in Seattle with Kenneth Walker III on the shelf, and it’s been a mixed bag of results.
On Thursday night, he managed just 57 yards on 15 carries in sloppy conditions, but he did manage to catch every pass thrown his way for a third time in four games. The Rams held this running game in check back in Week 9 (Charbonnet and Walker combined to pick up just 91 yards on 27 carries), making an inefficient afternoon very possible this week.
The middle of my RB2 tier this week is littered with volume backs on bad teams (Rico Dowdle, D’Andre Swift, etc.), and Charbonnet is no different. He’s a good bet for 15-18 touches, but the scoring limitations hold him back from pushing above RB15 for me.