It’s Week 17, and for fantasy football leagues, it means you’re playing for the championship title, or if you’re in leagues that go to Week 18, you’re fighting for a chance to play in the championship game. You either win or go home — it’s as simple as that.
There are always plenty of questions about who to start and who to sit in your lineups. Below, we’ve provided analysis for every fantasy-relevant running back in every game this weekend.
If you’re looking for all positions, head to our Week 16 Fantasy Football Start-Sit Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Aaron Jones | MIN (vs. GB)
I think we are pretty comfortable in the labeling and projecting of Aaron Jones after 16 weeks — he’s safe. We are looking at 15-18 carries with 2-4 targets and reasonable scoring potential given the trajectory of this offense (152 points over its past five games).
In his first revenge game against the Packers, Jones gave us ceiling usage with 22 carries and five targets (139 scrimmage yards). If they pound him like that against a Green Bay team that is likely to do the same with Josh Jacobs, this could be a low-possession game that caps the upside of all involved.
Even if that’s the case, you’re getting bell-cow work in an efficient offense – I prefer Jacobs to Jones, but you’re playing both.
Alexander Mattison | LV (at NO)
Alexander Mattison punched in a short score last week as the starting tailback against the Jaguars and even managed to earn seven targets in this offense that has far more questions than answers at this point.
The usage was nice, and the inefficiencies were predictable (2.3 yards per carry and a 57.1% catch rate). You can chase the role and Flex Mattison in deeper formats, but the problem is that I am more confident that the struggles to consistently gain yardage are more sticky than a role that saw him get 19 opportunities (12 carries and seven targets).
I’m giving him a 4-6 touch advantage edge to Ameer Abdullah, but at 3.2 yards per carry this season, you’re leaning heavily on the passing game where Abdullah is the preferred option and/or scoring chances, something that isn’t exactly the norm in Vegas these days.
Alvin Kamara | NO (vs. LV)
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, December 29
Kamara is inactive for today's game.
Alvin Kamara has had a highly productive season (nine top-15 finishes) and is currently sitting at 1.2% over expectation for the year, his best mark since 2021. But the groin injury that sidelined him for Monday night certainly has the potential to hold him out this week, thus leaving you without a big part of your regular-season run in your biggest matchup of the year.
Kamara will turn 30 years old in July, and while the pass-catching skills have aged well, I continue to think that we are on borrowed time with him as a weekly asset. The rushing efficiency is fleeting to say the least (career-high 20.2% of his carries have failed to gain yardage this season), and if Kendre Miller can provide this franchise with confidence that he can be a two-down back, we could be looking at a hit-and-miss RB in an average offense that relies on checkdown passes.
That’s not to say Kamara won’t be usable in 2024 (the Saints have an out if they want it in his backloaded contract), but I think there’s a good chance his ADP reflects more name value than projectable production this offseason.
Ameer Abdullah | LV (at NO)
Ameer Abdullah punched in a touchdown and caught five of six targets – it’s gross, but he’s been reasonably usable in four of his past six games. Alexander Mattison is the better bet to lead this team in the rushing production, but he’s done nothing to earn a featured role. As long as Abdullah is at least given the chance to reach 12-14 opportunities (carries + targets), there is low-end PPR appeal here.
This should be a competitive game (not a fun game, a competitive one), and that is the exact environment in which Abdullah gave us 85 yards and a touchdown last week. I’m not forecasting a repeat performance, but he’s at least a warm body if your roster is really hurting for viable options.
Bijan Robinson | ATL (at WAS)
We are finally getting everything we wanted from the Falcons when it comes to Bijan Robinson. We could complain about it taking this long and the benching of a quarterback signed to a nine-figure deal, but what good would that do?
The star running back has been a top-15 performer in nine of his past 10 games and has carried the rock at least 22 times in all four contests this month. The Commanders are humming on offense and have the third-worst run defense in terms of yards allowed per carry before first contact – if this isn’t a spot to give Robinson the Josh Jacobs treatment and load him up with early work, then it doesn’t exist.
You’re starting him everywhere, and you might have Week 17’s best Flex player on your roster.
Braelon Allen | NYJ (at BUF)
That was fun while it lasted. Braelon Allen is an interesting young player, and the thought was that he could see some extended work down the stretch of this lost season. Unfortunately, that doesn’t appear to be the case:
Week 16 NYJ RB Usage
- Breece Hall: 79.4% snaps, 6 targets, 14 PPR points
- Braelon Allen: 12.7% snaps, 1 target, 2 PPR points
- Isaiah Davis: 12.7% snaps, 0 targets, 1.2 PPR points
You can safely cut ties with all non-Hall backs in New York. Allen will be a Tier 1 handcuff next season, but for the fantasy playoffs, he adds no value to your roster.
Breece Hall | NYJ (at BUF)
Breece Hall was RB13 or better in three straight games to open the season, and most of us figured it was wheels up for a big season.
However, that hasn’t proven to be the case, as he has just three finishes better than RB18 since that initial burst. At the very least, as mentioned above, we saw him reassume his role as the lead man in this backfield – that makes him playable, even if none of his 14 carries gained more than seven yards last week.
In an underwhelming statistical performance against the Rams, Hall still had his moments. He took a dump-off pass on a critical third down in the second half and wedged between defenders to move the chains. The impact ended up being minimal, but it’s plays like that that help explain the long-term optimism.
The Jets gave him 23 touches in Week 6 against these Bills, and he rewarded them with 169 yards from scrimmage. I don’t think we get a repeat performance, but Buffalo certainly encourages its opponents to run and/or check down, putting Hall in a position to be an RB2 at worst. I think he comes loaded with RB1 upside.
Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS (vs. ATL)
Brian Robinson Jr.’s lack of involvement in the passing game has been one of the storylines that only bothers fantasy managers, but we’ve seen signs of life lately (five catches over the past two games after tallying four in his previous six games).
We feel good about him getting the work near the goal line if Washington finds themselves in such a spot, so adding even just 3-4 targets per game would elevate him from low-end RB2 to weekly asset.
With the Commanders’ offense clicking (98 points over the past three games), I think you’re getting quality exposure wherever you can – Robinson qualifies as such.
Bucky Irving | TB (vs. CAR)
Irving is the Buccaneers’ lead running back and has worked his way into the must-start tier at the position. We’ve seen this offense support two top-20 running backs since Week 10, and while projecting that to continue is optimistic, Irving shouldn’t have any issues living up to his end of the bargain as a heavy favorite against a team he ran for 152 yards and a touchdown against in Week 13.
I mentioned that Week 10 stat – if you simply give Irving 32% of Rachaad White’s production over that window, he’d be averaging 22.6 PPR points per game.
Saquon Barkley is fantasy’s RB1 this season at 22.4 PPG. However, it might be too low if you are currently viewing Irving for 2025.
Chuba Hubbard | CAR (at TB)
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, December 29
Hubbard is on IR and is done for the season with a calf strain
Chuba Hubbard shined again last week, clearing 160 scrimmage yards for the third time this season. He has more top-10 finishes at the position this season than Derrick Henry, an outcome I certainly did not see coming.
He’s Carolina’s best chance at success and that’s why you’re playing him. The volume appears to be about as safe as any RB in the league, so I’m willing to overlook a Week 13 dud in this exact matchup. In that game, his 12 carries netted 43 yards and he was unable to rip off a 10+ yard gain.
That’s very much been the exception, not the norm in 2024. You’re playing Hubbard, even if you’d rather not watch the Panthers as a whole.
Devin Singletary | NYG (vs. IND)
Devin Singletary has done nothing of substance outside of a garbage time touchdown here and there for a few months. Tyrone Tracy Jr. has established himself as the clear alpha in this backfield. Reasonable minds can argue as to the value of that role (keep reading), but this isn’t the type of offense that you’d burn a roster spot with a handcuff.
That’s obviously the case in Week 17, but looking forward, remember that in rostering a handcuff, you’re buying stock in an offense more than a single player. I’m not a financial expert, but at any point would you have wanted NYG stock in your portfolio?
De’Von Achane | MIA (at CLE)
De’Von Achane is just the second running back over the past three seasons to have a four-game streak with at least seven targets and seven rush attempts, joining Alvin Kamara (Weeks 4-9 earlier this season).
He fits this Tua Tagovailoa-led offense like a glove, and there’s no reason to pivot now. The efficiency on the ground hasn’t been close to what we saw a season ago, but the spike in usage through the air has more than compensated for that.
Achane has been a top-15 producer at the position in six straight games, and that feels like a near lock to continue through this week. The tricky part will be projecting for 2025 — do we middle his efficiency and keep the receiving role as is? If that’s the path you take, we are talking about a running back who is an unquestionable first-round pick.
Isaac Guerendo | SF (vs. DET)
A hamstring injury cost Isaac Guerendo last week and could well end his season, given that the team has nothing left to play for.
That said, we’ve seen teams make questionable health decisions like this in the past, and if we get sparkling health reports, you’d almost be obligated to Flex this role from a process standpoint.
San Francisco’s bell-cow role, percentage of RB touches:
-
- Weeks 1-2, Jordan Mason: 87.5%
- Weeks 10-11, Christian McCaffrey: 89.3%
- Weeks 14-15, Guerendo (minus Q4 of Week 14): 94.4%
- Week 16, Patrick Taylor Jr.: 81.8%%
Patrick Taylor didn’t have much of a chance to impress last week, making it even more likely that the feature role would be Guerendo’s if he is fit enough for it.
Keep tabs. I’m benching Guerendo right now and pivoting should things flip.
Jahmyr Gibbs | DET (at SF)
Dan Campbell made it clear that the team trusts Jahmyr Gibbs to handle the David Montgomery role last week, even after a few failures on the doorstep. When all was said and done, Detroit’s bell cow was trusted with 27 touches. I think we might see more of that over the next 1.5 months as this team looks to get to New Orleans.
Gibbs now has six top-10 finishes this season and will be a first-round pick next season. He could prove to be the piece that is most common on championship rosters this season – make sure to check back this offseason as we will work hard to position you to get “the next” version of him.
James Cook | BUF (vs. NYJ)
James Cook has 42 red-zone touches this season compared to 35 last year — he’s scored 16 touchdowns this season compared to six last year. There’s a combination of good fortune and strong development at play in Cook’s breakout season, and that’s just fine.
Buffalo’s lead back has nine top-12 finishes this season and he very well could add to that total this week against the Jets team that the Bills had no trouble running the ball against in Week 6.
Cook was inactive for that game, but this backfield ran 24 times for 131 yards, with 13 of those carries picking up at least five yards.
This is a deep backfield and that could be an issue should the Chiefs lock up the top seed. If you’re playing Cook and Kansas City clinches, I wouldn’t automatically pivot, but I would tune in to the beat reporters a little more.
Jaylen Wright | MIA (at CLE)
It’s fair to question how Jaylen Wright has been used this season (65 touches), but that’s not going to change anything. I’m of the belief that we could see him carve out a Jaylen Warren-like role next season, but that’s a projection to battle in June — he’s not helping you win a title over the next few weeks unless Miami elects to call his number if/when mathematically eliminated from postseason contention.
Jerome Ford | CLE (vs. MIA)
Jerome Ford has seven games with 10+ touches this season and has produced 7.7% over expectation in the process. He has plenty of boom/bust in his profile, but the numbers don’t lie – when he sees his role expand, he pays off.
D’Onta Foreman was handed Cleveland’s first two doorstep carries last week, but with a failure and a fumble, we can probably eliminate that from our worries this week. Dorian Thompson-Robinson isn’t going to have this offense in scoring position too often, but his conservative approach does favor a player like Ford.
It’s not crazy to pencil in 16-20 touches in this game, and given the ability to win in the passing game, I’m playing Ford as an RB2 and will have DFS exposure in a game that I expect to be higher scoring than sportsbooks do.
Jonathan Taylor | IND (at NYG)
My goodness.
Jonathan Taylor ripped off a pair of long runs on Sunday against the Titans, finishing with 218 yards and three scores. A lesser person would highlight that he had zero targets and that he now has just three catches over his past five games, but let’s not let that fact get in the way of a dominant Week 16.
Taylor has now rushed for over 95 yards in three straight games and gets the benefit of operating as a favorite this week. The passing game caps his projectable ceiling, but not nearly enough to suggest that he’s the least bit questionable this week.
Anthony Richardson can hand the ball off, and as long as that continues to be the case, you’re playing JT with all sorts of confidence in any situation in which the Colts are expected to win.
Josh Jacobs | GB (at MIN)
Jacobs has 108 touches in the first quarter this season, the third-most through 16 weeks of a season over the past decade (Adrian Peterson had 112 in 2015, and so did David Johnson in 2016). That’s a fancy way of saying that the Packers were fully committed to him when they swapped out Aaron Jones for him this summer and are even more committed now.
Green Bay’s RB1 has run for a score in six straight games while hauling in four balls in three of his past four — this role isn’t far from elite status. He was scripted out of the first meeting with the Vikings (nine carries for 51 yards before the Packers were forced into comeback mode and threw 54 passes), something I don’t think happens this time around.
Jordan Love is a good QB, but it’s Jacobs’ production that makes this team a tough out. Look for Jacobs to continue producing high-end numbers at the position – you’re in a good spot if you’re starting him weekly!
Kendre Miller | NO (vs. LV)
I think we can pretty safely rule out the Saints as a team at this point. They were unable to field a competitive team on Monday night, which resulted in Kendre Miller being fortunate to get to his 31 yards of production.
He’s the lead back in this offense and figures to hold that label for the rest of the season, but I’d rather Flex any receiver with any semblance of upside than chase my tail with this offense.
Nick Chubb | CLE (vs. MIA)
Nick Chubb broke his foot in Week 15, bringing to a close what has been a lost season for anyone who rolled the dice on him off of last season’s knee injury (3.3 yards per carry).
The team doesn’t expect this injury to require surgery, and that’s good news, but we are firmly in a spot where we will need to see more than him squatting a small village to reinvest this summer with the injuries piling up on a soon-to-be 29-year-old body that has north of 1,500 NFL touches. Reports have come out of Cleveland that it’s “ hard to say what his future in Cleveland might be” and that makes it difficult to project anything close to confidence in a meaningful role for 2025.
I’m rooting for him as I’m sure most are – but doing so from a distance.
Patrick Taylor Jr. | SF (vs. DET)
Patrick Taylor Jr. took over for Isaac Guerendo last week in Miami and was, you guessed it, a fully featured back.
Well, sort of. He got every running back carry for San Francisco, but that only amounted to eight carries and a 44.4% share of San Francisco’s total number of attempts.
I think we can pretty safely back away from this backfield and feel good about it. The 49ers don’t have anything left to play for, and we don’t have much in the way of clarity on Guerendo’s hamstring, making this an impossible situation to project with confidence as they prepare to face the second-best run defense by success rate, in the league.
The starting 49ers RB will be a low-end Flex option for me, no matter who it is. I don’t think this team has much success in this spot. If they do, I expect it to come in exotic packages that involve Deebo Samuel Sr. in space or Brock Purdy on the move, neither of which helps this running game in a major way.
Rachaad White | TB (vs. CAR)
It would appear that the time is finally here. The Buccaneers have succumbed to Fantasy Football Twitter and finally optimized their backfield.
OK, so that’s probably not an accurate portrayal of what went on here, but if last week is an indicator of things to come, we are finally getting what we want out of the running game in Tampa Bay.
In the disappointing loss to the Cowboys, Bucky Irving out-carried Rachaad White 16-3, while White caught seven of the eight passes thrown his way. We made it!
White didn’t do much against the Panthers in Week 13 until he doubled his rushing total with a long rush in overtime to set up the game-winning field goal. His ranking fully hinges on how you think this game plays out.
I believe that the Bucs roll, and if that is the case, White managers are going to be swimming upstream. I’ve got Irving ranked as a strong RB2 while White is more of a middling Flex option, understanding that I’m projecting a more grounded attack for the Bucs in the second half.
Raheem Mostert | MIA (at CLE)
When this game kicks off, we will be more than two months removed from Raheem Mostert’s last touchdown; not a sentence I thought I’d type following a 21-score 2023 campaign, but here we are.
There is no reason to look Mostert’s way this week; his story should serve as a good reminder that every season is its own entity. Production from the past is certainly something to consider, but overweighing it will land you a great 2024 team and out of the 2025 playoff picture.
Ray Davis | BUF (vs. NYJ)
Ray Davis has failed to reach 30 yards from scrimmage in five of his past six games, and with Ty Johnson playing ahead of him on passing downs more recently his status as a one-for-one James Cook replacement is far from certain.
He’s a change-of-pace back, but if this offense is going to ask Josh Allen to wear the cape, there’s really no reason to roster any secondary back in Buffalo as they attempt to chase the conference’s top seed.
I think you can safely forget Davis’ name for the remainder of 2024, but I’d caution against doing so for 2025.
Rico Dowdle | DAL (at PHI)
All of the Rico Dowdle momentum (three straight 100-yard games) came to a screeching half on Sunday night against the Buccaneers, as his 13 carries picked up just 23 yards. He did, however, manage to catch multiple passes for the eighth time in 10 games to give his managers a little something. Even so, it was a big letdown, and it’s hard to project a major bounce back against the best yards-per-play defense in the sport.
Limited efficiency is one thing, but getting vultured by Ezekiel Elliott is another. Any lead-back on a below-average offense needs to control his team’s few scoring chances—we didn’t see that last week.
I’m hanging tough in there and have Dowdle as a reasonable Flex option. The versatility is something that I’m banking on – either they ride Dowdle in a major way and keep this thing close, or they are forced to pass more often than they’d like. He turned 15 touches into 56 yards during the Week 10 loss to these Eagles, the production that I think makes for a pretty good starting point.
He’s far from “safe,” but at this point, I value his role more than anything going on in Tennessee, Jacksonville, or even Kansas City.
Saquon Barkley | PHI (vs. DAL)
As a team, the Giants have 1,603 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns on 369 carries – Saquon Barkley has turned his 314 carries into 1,838 yards and 13 scores this season.
Barkley is nothing short of special, and while we didn’t need 109 rushing yards with two scores in the first quarter last week to remind us of that, it never hurts to get statistical proof when leagues are being decided.
If you’re scrolling through the All-Pro’s box scores and come across the less-than-ideal numbers he produced in the first matchup with Dallas, don’t worry about it. Philadelphia controlled that game and ran the ball effectively (187 yards); it just didn’t need Barkley to do the heavy lifting (36.8% carry share).
With the Eagles still holding out hope for the NFC’s top seed, I’d expect a heavy dose of their RB1 early in this game to remove all doubt from the outcome. He’s a top-five play this week and in the 1.01 conversation for redraft leagues next season.
Sincere McCormick | LV (at NO)
I’m generally skeptical about players self-reporting news, but Sincere McCormick’s posting on Instagram that he’ll “be back next season” following Week 15 seemed pretty straight forward. The team paid off his diagnosis by placing him on IR ahead of Week 16, thus ending his season.
The 24-year-old undrafted back out of UTSA was thrust into duty for a floundering offense for a few weeks and managed to pick up 4.9 yards per carry. He had a 15+ yard touch in all four games in which he touched the football and is a name to keep in the back of your head for next season.
It’s difficult to know what this backfield will look like in eight months and if this offense as a whole will be any better, but I was encouraged by the production we got in a tiny sample from McCormick.
Tank Bigsby | JAX (vs. TEN)
Keep reading if you want the snap shares for his backfield, but spoiler alert: there’s not much to glean from that data. Heck, I was more confused after I tracked down the numbers than I was prior.
That said, Tank Bigsby was the only Jaguars running back to get a snap in the red zone last week, and if I’m forced into playing an RB in this backfield, it’s a decision I am 100% making based on chasing a touchdown.
This season, the Titans own the fifth-worst red zone defense in the league, allowing a touchdown on 64.7% of drives that cross their 20-yard line. There’s no guarantee that even if you pick the right Jacksonville back, you’re rewarded with fantasy points, and that has me trending away from this situation if at all possible.
Tony Pollard | TEN (at JAX)
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, December 29
Pollard is inactive for today's game.
Game flow was a mess last week after the Titans allowed the Colts to score 24 points in the second quarter, so I’m not exactly ready to say that this is a split backfield.
First Quarter, Week 16
- Tony Pollard: 73.3% of snaps, 4.2 points, five routes
- Tyjae Spears: 26.7% of snaps, 0.1 points, two routes
The Jaguars are the league’s worst yards-per-play defense, and that would have opened up the door for Pollard to find the form he had prior to the two recent duds.
I don’t think it would have been overly likely that Pollard would repeat the 23 touches he got in the first meeting with Jacksonville, but another close game that allows for enough usage to land him as a viable RB2 was very much a reasonable expectation.
Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX (vs. TEN)
I’m a man of data. I approach life with the idea that with increased information comes increased confidence.
I’ve been in this industry for over a decade, and this Jacksonville backfield has me questioning everything.
Week 9:
- Travis Etienne Jr.: 31.4% of snaps
- Tank Bigsby: 54.9% of snaps
Week 10:
- Etienne: 67.4% of snaps
- Bigsby: 23.3% of snaps
Week 13:
- Etienne: 52.2% of snaps
- Bigsby: 46.3% of snaps
Week 14:
- Etienne: 48.3% of snaps
- Bigsby: 51.7% of snaps
Week 15:
- Etienne: 70.1% of snaps
- Bigsby: 28.6% of snaps
Week 16:
- Etienne: 50.8% of snaps
- Bigsby: 29.5% of snaps
That snap share would seem to point one way lately, but then you look at the box score and see that, on three more carries, Bigsby ran for 28 more yards than Etienne.
I’ve made a call. Probably four weeks too late, but I’ve made a call. This is one of those things I just will not understand. Like time zones, silent letters, and society’s passion for scary movies.
I’m passing on both members of this backfield and not looking forward to ranking them for next season.
Tyjae Spears | TEN (at JAX)
Spears has set a season-high in snap share in consecutive weeks (55.4% in Week 15 against the Bengals and 59.6% on Sunday in Indianapolis), clearing 21 PPR points (and 15 expected) in both of those contests.
Predictive?
I’d be careful. Both of those games saw north of 50 points scored, and, as of this writing, you’d get +280 odds to see this game do that. Without such a positive game-script environment, I have my doubts that a Titans committee can give fantasy managers usable production, even against a soft defense.
Spears isn’t out of the question if you’re lacking an option; he’s sitting at RB30 in my rankings, but if it came down to him or a Darnell Mooney type, I’d side with the pass catcher.
Tyler Allgeier | ATL (at WAS)
Tyler Allgeier has at least nine touches in four straight games, and that makes for a reasonable projection this week if you’re in true desperation mode but nothing more. I’d play him over a Keon Coleman or David Moore type in a Flex decision due to the safety of his touch count, but I’m hoping your playoff matchup doesn’t come to that.
Allgeier has just three scores on his 2024 ledger (136 touches), and with Bijan Robinson at full strength, there’s no real reason to think that an increase in dangerous touches is coming for Atlanta’s RB2.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG (vs. IND)
Updated at 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, December 29
Tracy is active for today's game.
The math just isn’t in Tyrone Tracy Jr.’s favor. More accurately put, the math isn’t in favor of any Giant not named Malik Nabers.
I’m comfortable with labeling Tracy as the lead back in this offense, but with the game script so routinely an issue, he’s made it past 10 carries just once over his past five games.
The versatility of the rookie was on full display last week with a pretty toe-tap touchdown catch with Drew Lock on the move, and that upside is allowing him to keep his head above water for fantasy managers.
With 18 targets over his past three games and a 10+ yard reception in four of his last five, Tracy is at the back end of my Flex ranks for this week. The Colts are the fourth-worst third-down defense in the league, giving the Giants a fighting chance at keeping their offense on the field and thus getting Tracy the 15 touches he needs for us to feel good about him.